Member Info for Scampthedog

They need a bl..dy miracle!!!

Putin over the last hour or so has basically ordered a full scale invasion of the Ukraine.

Georgia borders Russia to the North. Who might be next then I wonder?

To say Georgia is "lying low" at this moment is putting it mildly. Quaking in their boots would be more apt.

And in case anyone on here has not noticed...Georgia is NOT a member of NATO.

Fundamentals apart (and Block Energy has very few of any sustainable note) this company might well become extinct overnight without having to go to all the trouble of having to self-implode...like it has been so determined to do so over the last couple of years.

What a wretched saga this has been. I fully agree with the statement below by rxdav when they make the comment: "Well they sure have lost a shed-full of money - but they are hardly alone given the way BLOE has performed these past couple of years. However, make or break time coming up - I've got to the point where I just want it over - one way or the other".

Well said! I fully concur.

But who cares? Let them drive the s.p as low as they like.

Who gains?
1. Kretinsky...more than likely I would think. (I most fervently hope so)
2. Royal Mail...a real giveaway in my opinion.
3. RMG employee share scheme...suits me!
4. And me myself...and anyone else with any amount of sense.

Happy to hold and accumulate here.

Nothing is a long term certainty in this life...but a good return at these prices is about as good as its going to get.

If Putin is going to war...then nothing will change his mind. Looks like everybody will make money with this one: the shorters, Kretinsky, Royal Mail...and, most importantly, all of us.

Don't bail...just keep accumulating.

The U.K has the third biggest e-commerce market in the whole World...and is growing at an enormous rate year on year. Its just a question of time now...a few short years at the most. Stay strong -- and stay long!

Bye for now. Cheers!

you always have been a crowing idiot. No change there then.

We ALL had a peck last time at the very bottom...or somewhere near.

The point I was making is: no one ever knows beforehand exactly where the bottom is (including the great Warren Buffett!)...and so quite often one buys several times as the price keeps falling...including you I might add. Don't try and make out you only bought exactly at the very bottom last time...you and a couple of other self-appointed former gurus bought more shares at various prices (as the price continued to collapse) well, well above what the bottom of the former share price collapse turned out to be; and, at that moment -- considered yourselves very savvy for having done so!

As you are so very obviously omnipotent...let us all know exactly where the next very bottom of bottoms is going to be then...and we can all make some easy Brewsters.

And don't suggest 3.88...that's support -- not the bottom.

Nobody gets in at the "bottom". A quick trawl around Youtube will convince you of that. Just tune in to Jim Cramer...or perhaps look up the oracle himself Mr Warren Buffett. Have a gander at some of the horrible gaffs well known analysts have committed over the last several weeks or so (including myself...unfortunately) ...its easy to brag about getting in at the bottom when you actually do -- and every time just plain old luck! Just like selling at the top I might add.

The important thing is not to beat yourself up...and don't get greedy. Save some cash just in case it falls even lower. And even if it does...you won't be cursing yourself in two years time when the s.p is considerably higher and saying: "gosh...wish I hadn't bought at £4.04". If you are in it for the long haul it makes not a jot of difference if you buy in at £4.04 or £3.68...not a jot.

Also, look for Kretinsky to buy more stock anytime soon; I will be very surprised if he does not at some point in the next week or so...or even sooner. Kretinsky is a big part of the equation when looking at RMG's longer term future outlook in my opinion (he might well turn out to be THE future)...if he does buy, and buys big, it could be a real game changer. What are his intentions I do so sometimes wonder? Lol.

but several things to hold foremost in mind when highlighting any possible positives regarding Royal Mail's share price.

1. Kretinsky is still accumulating; further indirectly increasing his holding, percentage wise, by RMG's continuing buy-back program. Most importantly, he could have sold when the s.p was both in the £5.00 and £6.00 range...but didn't.
2. This might sound rather somewhat arrogant to remark: but do analysts really truly understand the full depth and redeployment of RMG's vast resources when it comes to their unparalleled UK Network? They understand the pure fundamentals of the company absolutely...but the whole ethos, concerning Royal Mail that is, which pertains to the company's massive, in-depth restructuring when attempting to take the lion's share of this burgeoning new parcel market?
3. Most private investors do not use forums like this or any other one...you only have to talk to people at work (other posties) to realize that. In other words: people on this forum are more informed than your average investor. Why is it every time there is a dispute at RMG, every tabloid newspaper offers the opportunity for any person working for Royal Mail to ring in to them (the newspaper) and make a confidential disclosure? Most investors type "Royal Mail share price" into the search engine every day...and then react (panic) accordingly. Do it right now...and just look at the most eye-catching headlines; most/some of them all rather negative or downbeat to say the very least.
4. The full years results are not out yet. Add to this, that along with those results there should be a very positive update concerning the new Hubs.
5. If RMG decide to throw another big lump of money at buying back even more shares...this will then help confound the shorters even more. Especially playing right into kretinsky's hands.

And there you have it...my five cents worth.

Bottom line: don't panic...and take a little nibble at every pullback.

Mill Lane shut down several years ago if I recall correctly, OliGarch. Royal Mail did not own Mill Lane (Unlike the Mail Centre at Great Sankey) they rented it. Originally it was a Nestle's site I believe; also I think that Slumberland and Christian Salvesen were both in there as other tenants before RMG.

All the staff at Mill Lane transferred over to what is known as Unit 3...a separate unit opposite to the Hub (Unit 1). As for Sankey Mail Centre...it is to be sold off for more new housing. Royal Mail will make proper brewsters on this one -- it is a huge chunk of prime building land!

In the next couple of months most of the staff at Unit 3 and Sankey Mail Centre will be going into the new Hub...they have been running a X Docking over there with agency staff since before Christmas.

Can only assume what I have been told is wrong then, OliGarch. I was told by two people (one of them a union rep) that the plan is to shut several depots in the Northern part of England alone. I know for a fact that Warrington Mail Centre is shutting down...the land is to be sold off for housing development.

If you are just looking at the operational advantages of any large Hub then the advantages speak for themselves regarding greatly reducing running costs and efficiency.

1,. Large concentrations of people in one building instead of several or several dozen dozen buildings...massive savings on utilities and keeping the buildings in a state of repair; also, some of those former Mail Centres will be sold off...millions upon millions of pounds of money going into RMG coffers.
2. Standardizing processing: the machine will dictate the speed at which the mail is processed...not the staff. Anyone who does not comply with the operational requirements when working as an operative on the processing can be expected to eventually be conducted. You will all be compelled to work at the same rate...whether you like it or not.
3. The obvious advantages of mechanization: items will be scanned and processed at a far faster rate.
4. Missort's will become almost completely eliminated.

As for Warrington Hub in itself.

1.Central to the whole country.
2. Easy access to many Motorways.
3. Warrington town squats right on the A49.
4. Main West coast rail line runs right into the Royal Mail's Warrington Rail Terminal.
5. Royal Mail's new Daventry Hub (could be operational by Christmas) has its own rail siding on the West coast line...obviously connecting the two Hubs...eventually this will be an added extra great advantage.
6. The West coast line will not only directly link Warrington and Daventry, but will provide a direct link all the way through from P.R.D.C -- Daventry -- Warrington -- Glasgow.

The main East coast rail line needs mentioning also. I believe Royal Mails Rail Terminal at Newcastle has been recently cleaned out and spruced up. Rumor has it that the First-Class Edinburgh mail, instead of going up to Glasgow with the Glasgow mail via Warrington, is going to be directed onto the East coast line...this make sense, as instead of hauling the Edinburgh/Aberdeen mail from Glasgow by road it could go directly up to Edinburgh, and then straight onto Aberdeen, on this East coast rail line.

Lots of things will be coming up for consideration regarding the network's pipeline over the next 12 months I suspect. Lots of new, exciting possibilities for RMG.

One other thing: Royal Mail uses electric trains...the more mail that they put onto the rail track...the greater they reduce their carbon footprint. The inner city toil charges are going to cost RMG millions in the very near future...that is why they are starting to invest so heavily in electric vehicles.

much under present price. As long as RMG keep buying back its own shares and trashing them then the s.p should trade within a certain range...as indeed it has done so over the last several weeks. Perhaps if the collective short position was increased to somewhere above 3%, then it may well be a case for concern...but not at present levels.

Let us also not forget the "joker-in-the-pack": Mr Kretinsky. It looks as if he is in this for the long-term...as I have always suspected. He will most likely buy on any weakness. And why not. If he keeps buying and RMG keep trashing...then his position just keeps increasing in strength. I have always believed that it was not totally out of the question that he may consider the idea of a takeover bid if the chance presents itself. If Royal Mail throw another two hundred million at buying back even more shares in the next financial year (as I myself hope they so do) it will in fact (as long as he, Kretinsky, keeps on buying,) just increase the odds he might just fancy a shot at doing just that. At the very least: if Royal Mail keep on buying back and he keeps on accumulating...it just further increases his already considerable grip upon the business. I can just imagine those emails arriving with increasing regularity: "Mr Kretinsky suggests...". Lol. In all seriousness...I am prepared to bet this is not much removed from actual reality.

Warrington Hub. Looks like the hub will be online come May. The machine is fully installed and just about ready to go...it is absolutely immense! I have stood on one of the central spanning bridges and looked down and over it -- quite incredible! There is one serious logistical problem (which I won't discuss here) ...but it will be resolved. The cross-docking operation is now in full swing with more and more mail being diverted there. The staff have been selected and in a couple of weeks from now the duties and shifts will be duly allocated; I believe staff from mail centres that are closing down in Preston, Chester and Manchester (those whom have not opted for V.R that is) will also be making up the numbers.

If the operation there does begin at the proposed start of May it should, when the final year's results are announced later that month, have a positive impact and help bolster up the share price. One could reasonably hope anyway.

Firstly. The "Short Interest Tracker" only shows positions (shares out on loan) at a minimum of 0.5% or over. Anything less than a position of 0.5% does not show...there are other short-interest trackers available that show positions held under 0.50%. The true amount of Royal Mail shares out on loan, therefore, might actually be several per cent higher...but I would doubt that myself.

It is a real plus, as many members here have indeed already acknowledged, for long term share holders that RMG are now buying back its shares...albeit it is going to take a considerable amount of time and money to buy back even 5%. I would think at least another two hundred million (if the s.p, that is, rises according to analyst's projections) on top of the money they have already available at present. Still...its a good thing as we all agree -- and helps prop up the share price.

Secondly. Puts Mr D.K in a even stronger position with his (approx) 19% (well, it was last time I looked) of shares held within the company. Every time RMG buys and then retires those shares it increases D.K's percentage more and more towards that critical mass of 30%...the amount of holding within the company that would, by company law, compel him to make a bid for the remaining shares...in other words a "Hostile Takeover".

Interesting times indeed.

The evidence of my own eyes.

I see it every night...you witless fool.

Dear oh dear oh dear.

Royal Mail is not packaging the contents of these flow-test kits...it is printing off and attaching the recipient's address as provided by the NHS database.

At the appropriate time, when the NHS database allows access, the users of the label-printing machines go online and download the newly uploaded addresses of the newly requested kits; after which the printing machines run off the rolls of labels ready to be attached to each individual packet containing each kit.

This is very labour intensive and take many hands to achieve any sizable amounts of labelled packets: boxes containing the test kits have to be brought to the work area on pallets; boxes broke open; labels attached to each packet; filled yorks wheeled away and replaced; area kept clean and tidied (the job generates an unbelievable amount of plastic wrapping, cardboard and wooden pallets).

Good profit to be made on this contract...but nowhere as much as what some people might think if they did not fully understand everything that takes place beforehand before despatching those little packets to the customer.

WRONG -- WRONG -- WRONG!!

There are 3 separate depots in 3 different geographical areas of the UK that I know of (Yorkshire -- North West -- South Midlands) that have been packaging these flow-test kits over the last several weeks; and one of these above areas mentioned has in fact two depots busy packaging the stuff.

Undoubtedly -- Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, London, South East, South Coast, South West -- will all have depots in their own geographical areas that have been doing exactly the same processing.

In other words -- lots of RMG depots busily packaging and then delivering test flow kits.

Tickets printed off -- attached to box -- thrown into a york -- filled york placed into the correct avenue -- york wheeled onto a trailer -- yorks delivered to a M.C -- sorted -- postie delivers.

Let me know if that is too difficult for your manager mate and yourself to fully comprehend...and I will attempt to try and explain it to you as I would try explain it to a four year old.

Cheers!

but cost of processing them is still far, far higher than what most people would reasonably think...unfortunately.

However, in the next week or two things could change.

Volumes will decrease slightly and therefore one would expect a lot of the extra agency doing the flow-test processing, at this moment, will be laid off as more and more posties can then be employed to take up the task.

Obviously this will dramatically increase the profit margin on any extended contract...not withstanding extra agency workers at time of pressure of course. For instance Easter.

I don't quite understand the sentiment of the link that leads to the supposedly newly awarded extension to the test flow kits contract...by that I mean, no mention of 2022.

Regarding the profit that might be obtained from processing such a contract.

The test flow kits are processed at night; several people on several separate computers, linked to printing machines, download the delivery addresses...the printing machine then prints off the delivery addresses onto rolls of self-adhesive stickers which are then peeled off and stuck to the front of each individual packet.

The problem with doing all this of course is that, most obviously, it is very labour intensive.

Many thousands of individual packets are processed nightly...but at the expense of employing many extra agency workers (and these not dependable, in the main, Angard staff)...up to fifty at a time on the night shift in my depot alone.

This brings with it many, many problems for the poor beleaguered manager: staff coming back late from breaks...or not at all; staff sleeping when they should be working (locking themselves in the toilet is a favourite ploy); staff idling at their station...completely disinterested; they are too young...not used to, or capable of, working nights; bolshy and incompliant...or even just downright aggressive.

And if anyone doubts the last statement, then take this into consideration. On one occasion two young agency workers refused a task at the managers request...apparently it was beneath them (breaking up cardboard boxes I believe) to do so. This resulted in a series of phone calls between the highly distressed manager and the agency that supplied them...eventually they were drove away, back home, in a taxi -- and that drive 100 miles away!!

That's right, at my depot 25 - 30 agency workers a night are being brought in (via a minibus) from a city 100 miles away - staggering!!

What price that "profit" now then?

It is not the cost of transporting the packets (they go out on the first available trailer)...it is the cost of processing them. And that cost is a great big wet bite right out of the juicy cheeks of any profit to be made. Not nearly as much profit as what people are being led to believe unfortunately; but still decent profit all the same....but could be so much more if more efficiently organised.

Not much chance of that then - lol.

Typically inefficient Royal Mail...same as always...and will remain so for several generations to come.

but at the end of the day it was just a punt. Simple as that. And a punt that may well not come off.

No point in pointing the finger. Everyone (The CEO, Board and investors alike) all went into this with their eyes open wide...no one was purposefully mislead...if they were mislead, then their greed mislead themselves.

Just a punt. And it always was. And it remains so.

Scampthedog Enterprises issues rarest "Chuck The Kitchen Sink At It" -- "Strongest buy" for Royal Mail stock.

"We most urgently advise", says Mr Scampthedog (chief dog and analyst) "purchasing as many shares as one can possibly afford (or not really afford if that is the case) in RMG before the perceived "new reality" of the fast encroaching omicron corona variant causes chaos during which what we now suppose (know) is going to be another frantically paced and hectic shopping season...one that we most assurededly envision will carry on well into the New Year...and, it would now seem, quite sometime after the end of year celebrations have concluded."

"To be more concise, we here at Scampthedog Enterprises consider it most desirable that wise investors attempt to lay their hands upon as many available funds as they can possibly secure access to in regard to this proposed investment...and which could see them profiting greatly, in due course, from what we regard as a golden opportunity to truly prosper in the near coming proceeding months; funds bolstered perhaps by raiding your young daughter's piggy box or turning out your drunken son's trouser pockets...perhaps even rifling through your wife's draws. Although we would, of course, advise extreme caution when attempting the latter."

***********************************************ENDS******************************************

"Buybacks can boost EPS. When a company goes into the market to buy up its own stock, it decreases the outstanding share count. This means earnings are distributed among fewer shares, raising earnings per share."

All of the best companies engage in share buybacks. For example, Apple - Microsoft - Nvidia - Qualcomm (all of which I am invested in) buy large amounts of their own shares every single financial year; this has the same effect as if they were paying out a dividend: it returns value to the shareholders by increasing the value of each individual share they own.

Buying back shares, in my humble opinion, is more desirable to the small individual shareholder than actually paying out a cash dividend...as long as the company is trading on strong and sound fundamentals of course.

However, a company which is buying back its own shares is not just a case of going to the market (like we as individuals do) and buying the shares there and then as they are being traded in real time...they are negotiated through a tender (or yes even sometimes an open market if the shares are available in any great number: a big correction in the markets for example)...thus this increases the price that is paid for the shares at that moment of purchasing them...in other words: above present market value. People are hardly likely to let you have some of their shares at the stated closing price if they think those shares are going to rise even more the following day and over the succeeding weeks after.

Something else to consider that might also effect the share price in the short term: every time the posties are due to buy their shares through the share-buying scheme the price always starts to climb several days before. Why? Well If you consider say just one quarter of the posties using the share buying scheme x 92.28: 40,000 x 92.28 -- this then equals £3,691,200! You cannot just go to a computer and buy that many shares in the royal mail in any split second during trading hours...they simply would (might) not be there...therefore the negotiated prices beforehand...and, therefore, the higher than market price to be paid at that present time.

Obviously then after there is a lull in the share buyback from the company (and any large required monthly amount as in the posties share scheme) it stands to reason that the price will correct itself and readjust down.

A bit simplified perhaps...but I believe this to be about right.

Quite happy to be properly corrected if wrong though.

that this lot can find oil...even if they were to be stood in a mechanics garage.

That has always been the problem in my estimation.

This is why the present board should have been sent packing a long time ago.

Rank amateurs attempting to undertake a project that was well beyond their scope of expertise.

The so called "Concert Party" had realized all of the above, now to their great cost, long before people on this forum (the small private investor) ...that is why they offered to pay for the forensic accounting into the company's affairs.

How I would just love to see those conclusions.

P.s what a fight the company put up to dissuade the thought of doing just that, that rigorous so called forensic accounting. I wonder why? It was not even the company's money that would have paid the bill. Their one chance to publically prove their good intent...but they refused to take the opportunity...and all for free. Very strange.