Member Info for Scampthedog

If you listen to the latest update from Pullinger (Facebook) when interviewed by Chris Webb, you will hear Pullinger remark that the CWU will not except any deal involving a pay rise linked also to the shorter working week...they are two separate deals in the CWU's mind; however, I think this can (obviously) be negotiated around.

As for the share price? I hope, in the short term it DOES go lower. As you yourself remark: "In the meantime, the shorters may be doing some of us (that have kept our powder dry) a favour?"

But putting that aside (and I have been buying here and there on the way down...all the way from £3.60 downwards) I would still be more than happy for the s.p to go sub 3.00...I will just keep buying. And will be buying more all the way back up to £4.00 also.

Upwards or downwards, I really couldn't care less. In two years from now when that Daventry Hub is fully operational and Royal Mail are capturing an even bigger chunk of the fastest growing ecommerce industry in Europe...then this stock will not ever be seeing even sub £6.00 again...never mind sub £4.00 a pop.

And let us all remember one very important aspect that makes this stock (at present time) very, very much different from most -- Kretinsky!

He has never sold one single share. From the moment he initiated a position in RMG, he has continued to add...and remember, even more importantly, he could have sold at well over £6.00 a share not so long ago; and could have made an enormous profit...but didn't. Why did he not sell? Why did he not sell at least a portion of them?

It is my belief that he never intended to buy this company. But if the opportunity to buy the company is handed on a plate to him...he would be stupid not to. And I believe that is exactly what Kretinsky believes also.

If kretinsky buys just another 3-4% of this stock...then it is well and truly game on. As for the share price? You can forget £4.00 a share then. It will be well north of that.

If this stock goes sub £3.00...then this company might very well be sold. It's as simple as that.

Pullinger has announced exactly what I had hoped he wouldn't (although in all fairness he was bound to take this stand) that the shorter working week and pay rise will not be traded off one against the other.

Ops...trouble coming.

No way is the company going to offer anywhere near a rise in wages comparable to present inflation.

Very much looks like the Shorters were right after all.

Doesn't change my viewpoint though about holding on and mopping up cheap shares. Doubt if it changes Kretinsky's mindset either.

Yes, OliGarch...that's exactly what I mean (selling off GLS and ParcelFarce). Obviously the present board could not do it for all the most obvious reasons. But Kretinsky could -- and most certainly would!

I am not for one minute saying that this would be the 'right' thing to do...but any successful takeover attempt would most certainly culminate in selling off GLS at some point in the near future.

As for the unions? Kretinsky wouldn't give a damn. Why should he? He wouldn't miss the revenue (in the short term leastways) from taking on us posties when we were all sat at home on strike. A lot of us would have no jobs when we came back...which is what we would end up having without striking...the difference being that we would all be a lot more poorer for having gone on strike in the first place.

If Kretinsky gets hold of Royal Mail it would be the end of the posties terms and conditions as you and all the old-stagers know (and have known) them. In fact...it would, in a very short space of time, be a completely different animal.

And you wouldn't hear a murmuring bleat from the government or the regulator.

The one thing that Kretinsky would really be interested in getting his teeth into would be R.M's transport fleet. Royal Mail drivers (as you and all other posties on here are more than aware of) are on fantastic wages (far better wages and t&c's than the national average). Massive savings to be made here...massive savings. But not whilst the company is run under the present restrictions. But take those impositions away...and away would go much of that fleet with them.

F**k it...I never catch the bottom anyway.

Don't consider this the falling knife any longer at this stage.

That's probably now gone and put the mockers on it mind you; but if it falls considerably lower will just take another bite out of it.

I am now totally convinced Kretinsky has taken the view: "if they want to hand me the company on a plate...so be it."

A former government got rid of RMG because it was a big headache...the present board might well be thinking along the same lines: "we cannot do a hatchet job on it they will wreak the business...but we know someone who wouldn't give a damn...and would just sit back...and let them get on with it".

The very first time big D bought into this company I was thinking just that very thing...and my thinking has still not changed...not one little bit it hasn't.

And all that 200 million buyback did was further strengthen my opinion.

As everybody on here is well aware...I am not one to crow...but...Kretinsky, just like I said he would, has increased his holding yet again.

He now owns 21% of the company...thanks to a little extra help from the board and their Buyback scheme.

Makes one wonder more than just a bit does it not?

He has obviously been tipped off by someone on the inside that the chances of a strike are slim...just like I have postulated the same opinion over the last week or two.

This company is a glaring buy whatever the next set of figures announces. Why? Because with its present market cap and a price-to-earnings ratio of just 6.3, plus the generous dividend, it makes it an absolute no-brainer.

Yes it will always have its inherent problems...but parcel delivery is here to stay. And so is Royal Mail...in one form or another. Whatever that "form" ultimately turns out to be. Lol.

Wow!!!

I will say this much lads...you've got a full set of swinging b@lls at the very least.

I have a mere fraction of your investment.

You might not believe me when I say this...but I really do hope this comes off for you.

And who knows, after all this long time it might just well be our turn for a little bit of luck. Here's hoping anyhow.

The truth is...nobody really cares. Well most of the posties won't.

The mail will still get through...as long as the posties don't come out in sympathy of course. And that I just cannot see.

There will be plenty of stand-in/deputy managers available to fill the gaps...they are still posties after all is said and done.

Not much chance of the CWU striking either. Plenty of noise and sabre rattling from the aforementioned (as is always the case) but strike? Doubt it.

They will settle for the two extra hours and 2-point-something percent...and everyone will be happy:-

The company will get a workable deal; the CWU will get what they want (35 hour working week) the shorters make a nice big wedge; Kretinsky will put some dough together (he is a little strapped at the moment) and further increase his stake...and we will be mopping up cheap shares alongside him as well.

Whats not to like?

Same old same old. Just like last time.

£3.30 or £2.30 who gives a f..k.

Just keep nibbling away...and DON'T get too greedy and you will be perfectly alright.

The Hubs will all be up and running in the next several years. The UK has the biggest ecommerce market in Europe and the third biggest in the World.

We might have to wait several years for the share price to hit £8.00 a share...but it will come.

And nobody will be laughing when you tell them that you were buying at these prices even it drops all the way down to £2.00 a share they won't.

And its really as simple as that. A no-brainer for anyone who can wait just a couple of short years. And of course the dividend...and, also, more than likely the continued buy-back plan.

Patience...that is all that is required. A little patience.

What is happening in Ukraine is an absolute tragedy. But as those of us old enough to remember what happened in the early 90s in the Balkans know only too well, Eastern Europe always has been a most treacherous and highly politically charged region. And always will be.

The real tragedy of Ukraine...is it is a tragedy that might not have had to take place.

The Western Allies have to take a big portion of the responsibility here...it was they that encouraged Ukraine to believe right from the outset that they, Ukraine, could become part of NATO. And then stood back!!

What was Russia honestly going to do? Allow a newly enrolled member of NATO to suddenly appear on the map in an area that has always been historically claimed, by Russia, as being under Russian influence?

We will, as far as our investment goes, be very lucky if Putin does not roll his tanks even further into Georgia...and into Moldova too for that matter.

Most informative read, Maximas1.

Explains a lot regarding the logic behind the thinking and rationale of the people who are, at present time, shorting this stock. All this coupled with the impending wage negotiations has handed the shorters a good opportunity to take advantage of any uncertainty and nervousness that might be arising not only directly connected to Royal Mail itself...but also in the broader markets.

Many thanks for the link.

However, despite all of this...I am still convinced that buying the dips is going to turn out to be a good investment. As long as one does not get too greedy and is prepared to just nibble...then £3.360 or £2.90...won't alter the fact that good profit will be ensured here whether 12 months from now or a couple of years. A good profit sometime in the near future is absolutely assured.

Slow but sure all the quacking ducks are lining up!

through all the RNS's...can anyone tell me, barring an early out of court settlement, just when it is that the much anticipated legal clash between the two parties is actually scheduled to begin?

for Royal Mail. Short Interest Tracker now reporting it at 2.81%.

Cannot lose at these prices even if s.p falls back again.

at this moment is the opening moves concerning the next fast approaching pay deal to be struck between RMG and the CWU.

As always the CWU has gone in high...I believe they are seeking a 6 - 8% pay increase.

No chance of that! But I am led to believe that they (CWU) would settle for the two outstanding hours and something a little over 2%.

Sounds fair enough to me. I would vote in favour of that.

think there will be any thing left of Block Energy (as far as a business is concerned) is Putin goes marching into Georgia...then think again. Because there won't!! Maybe plenty of oil...but not for Block Energy.

Putin has already marched into northern Georgia once before...don't for one minute think he might not do it again.

He will do it in a heartbeat if it goes his way in Ukraine. End of!!

Best not buy yet. The share price always climbs the week before the posties get their shares bought.

The only thing the next RNS is likely to say is a starting comment from our illustrious leader beginning something like :"I dictate this letter today from the great city of London..."

Ongoing business? We will all be very, very lucky if this does not signal (as many independent observers believe) the start of WWIII.

Even if Putin retreats from the greater part of Ukraine...Moldova and Georgia are probably next.

In fact, if Block (by some great unexpected miracle) do hit oil...it won't be the shareholders and company getting all the benefits.

Not anytime soon.

But there is an easy short term solution that will help considerably decrease the use of the road fleet. Electric trains!

As always, internal politics (backed up by the CWU's not inconsiderable muscle) has a big bearing on all of this.

The Royal Mail drivers, for the most obvious of reasons, balk at any suggestion of moving more mail onto the rail track...but like it or not...it's coming...and coming very soon. Especially when that Daventry Hub is up and running.

Warrington Hub is the size of four and a half football pitches. Daventry, considerably bigger -- tens times size of a football pitch!! And the new Daventry hub has a direct link to Warrington without needing to use the road networks. How? Because, just like Royal Mail's Warrington Rail Terminal, Daventry, too, has its own separate platform joined to the side of the building. A direct link straight up the Main West Coast rail line from hub to hub. In other words: when both hubs are up and running, that rail line will be transporting mail both ways from between Warrington and Daventry, all pulled by an electric train...Southward mail going South...and Northward mail going North.

Bit by bit, slow but surely...things will start to drop into place. But, as is usual with RMG...it wont be done with the greatest of haste. More the pity.

Question. If you buy 1500 shares in any company for £4.00 a share and then the share price drops to £2.75...is anyone going to call you an idiot in 2 years time if the share price is up at £7.75 a share?

Doubt it.

Bought two small tranches over the last several days at £3.70 and 3.57.

Again, do I really give a flying f..k if the share price drops to £2.75? Mostly certainly not. I will just buy more!

And if the s.p totally collapses...I will do what I have done before with this and other stocks. Borrow another £10,000, add to it, and buy a boat load of em!

No one is ever going to convince me, that, with all the land and buildings Royal Mail own (a lot of it in high value locations) this company is ever in danger of going bust or will cease to trade.

As for the pay rise. The CWU always initially goes in high...but will no doubt settle for one more hour off the working week plus a couple of percent.

Value it as you will...but at these prices (and yes...it could fall significantly lower) this company is still an absolute steal.

And you won't convince Daniel Kretinsky any differently either.

1. If the short positions are closed by another half a percentage point...then the present short positions won't even show up on the "Short Interest Tracker" site.

2. With all the buying yesterday, as the shorts started closing their positions, it looks as though £3.70 (approx) is regarded as the absolute bottom for this moment in time. If it is...it will be the very first occasion I have called it right, regarding RMG, when buying at the absolute bottom. First time for everything.

3. Watch out for an RNS, hopefully, sometime next week announcing that Kretinsky has bought another large tranche of shares...he has not been lacking this far regarding buying opportunities as and when they have presented themselves.

Bottom line : hold onto your shares...even if the insane despot (which is Mr Putin that is) threatens Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. If he does...you will be picking up this stock at £3-00 a pop. Or even less!

As for invading those former Eastern Bloc States (now countries in their own proud right and members of Nato)...don't give it a second thought. Because if it happens...the last thing you will all be worrying about is your portfolios.

Cheers. And long live democracy!!

...bought at £3.70.

Can see it falling further...but will buy all the way down. And all the way back up again.

Good luck to every one. And a special good luck to those gutsy Ukrainians. Long live democracy!!

its now started.

My heart goes out to all those innocent little children. As always...it is the completely blameless who will suffer most.

God help us all now if he attacks those former Eastern Bloc countries who are in NATO.

Worrying about your portfolio's will be the very last thing on your minds.

Our thoughts should be with those gutsy Ukrainians this day.