Member Info for sasa43

Hi Bwana, as an aside, all this trade identification nonsense (my 'Buy' is showing as a 'Sell', etc.,) would be immediately resolved if the Mms were told to mark each trade with a 'B' or 'S', from either their standpoint or the order source, as appropriate, upon execution.

It wouldn't cover all transactions, of course but it would properly identify most of the conventional activity and give AIM a better image than it has now - sasa.

Hi Strummer - all the later significant trades today are designated 'O' deals, according to LSE here, implying that they have plenty of stock available right now - those trades are not 'bot' transactions assuming the suffixes are correct.

Maybe one or more of the larger holders on here is lightening up on their exposure - dunno, really. That seems to suggest that they're now having doubts about the details of the financing package, if they are doing so, which is odd since we're now into Q3 when it's forecast to be confirmed.

Of course, a lower sp ahead of the announcement, implies a less appealing equity element to it but the crucial thing is getting Araguia financed and up and running.

Doesn't bother me, particularly, this pre - package weakness beforehand, as long as it's done - sasa.

Thanks for posting this article, Sage - very interesting and clearly very supportive of Serica's appeal, as you say - sasa.

Quite inspirational, that, Doc and a useful reminder of where we are currently.

Patience is often all that's required with many aspirational Cos on AIM; something the traders don't have and too many punters forget about - the 'real gravy' more often than not comes to those who, having 'taken a view' and are prepared to await the outcome, deserve the rewards when realised.

Shouldn't be too long now, so GLA - sasa.

A useful reminder, nevertheless, as you say, oufc - thanks for posting - sasa.

All looking good, NewK - agreed.
The earlier eps forecasts I worked out a short while ago seem to be reinforced by this latest news and with the sp attaining a new 'High' one hopes momentum will carry this higher still and not before time! - sasa.

Echo that entirely, Nolupus - if you go 'all in' on anything, you've gotta be dead right. Better to lose that opportunity even if you were right in the event, rather than most / all of your cash if you weren't. Simples... - sasa.

HZM has a bigger resource and are very close to completing the funding of their first mine, too, ivans - which is the main difference - sasa.

The MoneyWeek article was sent to subscribers via e-mail today, harry - I got it in my 'inbox', too - sasa.

Have been on the lookout for some exposure in this space for quite a while and have just joined the party today, having picked up 200k shs just now at 6.15p for starters, having DMOR ; it looks quite promising from what I've gleaned so far. GLA - sasa.

Hi gareth - well, I'm just calculating how things might well look this time next year as far as I can gauge - disappointments / maintenance shutdowns, etc., aside, of course.

I forgot to mention the likely hike in the dividend next time, too. If things pan out as hoped, a doubled dividend wouldn't surprise me at all, since the current 3.5p is amply covered on those sort of numbers and a prospective yield of a safe 5% or so in this climate just adds further 'grist to the mill'.

DYOR as always, though, gareth, as it's just my personal assessment as I see it. GL anyway - sasa.

'Morning dick - yes, I was referring to the OFAC licence, of course.

As to what Serica might be worth today, is difficult to gauge in the absence of an NPV, as you say and even then what discount would be applied in the event of an offer?

As things stand today with the near trebling of the gas price since last years precipitous collapse in oil & gas prices, I'd expect a dramatic rebound from the trammelled eps in 2020 to exceed the 2019 achievement of 24p ps to, maybe, 30p ps or so? Add in the beginnings of the Rhum 3 / Columbus
contributions towards the end of this year and 100 % of the BKR income six months hence and we might well be seeing eps being around double that for 2022, if gas prices remain around current levels. Their hedging programme is likely being stepped up currently as I suggested recently.

Ergo, a prospective multiple next year of, say, 3 x on todays sp renders any offer needing to be much more than 225p ps, I'd say, perhaps 350p or more. Yes, one could conclude that this is a 'rose tinted' view but it's worth undertaking the calcs in the absence of Serica doing its own acquisition which might well transform the business again to even greater advantage.

Either way, the potential here remains significant, imv and, perhaps, the latest upturn in the sp is beginning to recognise that at last - sasa.

Upomega, Serica only got the extension of their licence to call upon US equipment, if need be, by a definitive undertaking to continue complying with the sanctions against Iran.

Ergo, if Iran got any money from Rhum, then Serica would forfeit its licence and as operator of the field, that would be very detrimental to say the least, so it won't happen as things stand - sasa.

Interesting points there, IANAA and NewK, on this 50% Rhum holding by the IOC.

As I understand it, a sale to any third party wouldn't concern the US / require its approval provided the proceeds remain 'frozen' in escrow to meet US sanctions. If the monies were to be paid over to Iran (directly or indirectly) that would immediately invalidate Serica's licensed access to their superior rescue equipment, if required, to deal with any accident or major event, etc.,

Ergo, as operators of the Rhum field, Serica couldn't countenance that unless Biden sanctioned some sort of waiver regarding it which seems very unlikely in the present climate or Serica gave a guarantee about maintaining the 'status quo' if they're after it, vis a vis the sale proceeds being held in escrow for the duration, too, as IOC's income from it is now.

That's my take on it right now but if Serica are successful in acquiring 100% ownership, then the sp would significantly 'balloon' from here, as NewK suggested, given the importance of it / sky high gas prices, etc., - sasa.

Agreed, NewK - it's almost certain they got that bit wrong; Serica would need to secure US agreement to buy out the Iranian's 50% share of Rhum with the payment being guaranteed to be added to their 'frozen' income funds in escrow, as things stand, under the US sanctions.

Having said that, such a deal would be comfortably within SQZ's target range and if the US sanctioned it, an RNS would certainly be forthcoming, so a correction from The Herald and / or from Serica, looks odds on to me.

Meanwhile, the impressive sp performance recently is very encouraging and suggests that something might, indeed, be afoot ... sasa.

Well said, Brentw1 - sasa.

going on at these much elevated levels - maybe 50 / 50 now? - sasa.

Actually, this week's price action is noticeably different from the norm.

Last Friday, the sp closed at 123p, so adding on the XD adjustment (which it breezed through, incidentally) to close at 129.5p tonight, that's a 10p rise overall ( i.e 8% ) so that's quite a positive in my book and not the usual 'surrender' we're used to - sasa.

Thanks Geng - the sp does seem to have been inching higher of late and I was guessing 2p+ shortly might be the beginning of something, to my untutored eye, if it manages that...? Your chart looks timely, therefore, along with your interesting projection - sasa.

That made me chuckle, Joe, re: 'at least they talk to you there'....sasa.