Member Info for sasa43

Hi Almsivi - interesting question, that...

Leaving aside the possibility of the Govt. introducing a 'windfall' profits tax which has been mooted in some quarters (and Serica's BoD probably prefer to see this risk clarified first) a special divd of the size suggested would involve a nasty tax bill for those holders outside of an ISA or SIPP, bearing in mind the Chancellor plans to increase the tax rate on dividend income from next April.

Better, I'd suggest, for them to consider a share 'buy back' if they have no better use for excess cash. If they bought back, say, 10% of the float costing some £60m, theoretically, at least, that should give the earnings a 10% boost to aid the sp whilst keeping the shares in Treasury. They can then always use them later on for defensive and / or acquisition purposes, if need be.

Alternatively, the BoD could always sanction a return of capital which isn't so prone to the tax man in most cases but that would be irretrievable, of course and would seem to run counter to Serica's cautious approach to things...

Finally, if the cash accruals build to anything close to your calcs. they might proceed with drilling North Eigg without the need for any 'farm in' partner and if they make a commercial discovery owning 100% of the prospective revenue, the sp would rise substantially, anyway...

Just my musings on your topic, fwiw - sasa.

Yep, MadMat, agreed - until there's a power cut, of course. The demand for electricity is already very high and when more and more demands are placed on the grid, further interruptions to power supplies must be expected, I guess...

Ergo, when I change my car, I'm likely to go for a hybrid, initially; at least that way you have two options available and when they're finally banned, one hopes batteries will have a much longer range like an ICE to make the EV more practical than now - sasa.

Roger that, Mommur - just couldn't resist the connotation... sasa.

Hi Mommur - I think there's a 'farm - in' coming up in the North Eigg region shortly, if you're interested... Just joking! - sasa.

Excellent post, thanks, Almsivi - very helpful in the detailed analysis and even if you're a bit out in the estimations, an informative and useful guide, nevertheless; better than I could have put together, fwiw - sasa.

"It's all about 2H 2021 and 1H 2022" - agreed Maverick, as has been suggested recently.

The 2022 Y/E, in fact, should see the 'real gravy' being earned here, especially if gas / oil prices hold up anywhere current levels.

Haven't got into the RNS fully yet but they're hedging less at the half way stage than I suggested which was clearly a better call than my inclination in view of the way prices have escalated since, so well done there Serica.

Initially a bit underwhelmed with the H1 outturn so far - was hoping for rather more, including a maiden interim divd but the management retains their cautious approach to things in this volatile industry which is no bad thing in contrast to some 'gung ho' teams out there, imv.

Next year should certainly be quite exceptional on all fronts with a decent divd hike in prospect for the Y/E 2021 looking 'odds on' now - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - echo that...

I guess that post the Y/E 2022 figs. that would be the ideal time for the BoD to go for a main mkt listing when Serica's sp should be really in the ascendancy.

If a T/O for us is announced prior to that, Mitch & Co would surely put up a stiff defence with what those results would likely convey as to what the Co's really worth; either way, the outcome should be very pleasant for all the LTHs invested here - sasa.

Yep, agreed, RELLIM - the forecasts will be the most informative pointer to consider, given the exceptional gas price / conditions we're now seeing.

The 2022 Y/E should be quite something! - sasa.

A windfall profits tax on gas producers, I see..

From memory, we have some $40m odd allowable tax losses still to utilise, so that should lessen the penalty somewhat if they do introduce it - sasa.

Hi gareth - Roger that...

Yep, I know what you mean following ATHs being achieved - AIM is often notorious for such setbacks with so many traders involved in these under researched situations.

Getting promoted onto the main mkt at some point soon is the only real antidote to such extreme volatility but it'll surely happen soon; maybe in 2023 when we can see the y/e figs for 2022 as dcarn suggested earlier. GL, anyway - sasa.

Hi gareth - it's almost invariably the case that it's more difficult to gauge when to sell than when to buy. As long as you manage to achieve a reasonable / good profit when exiting, then you'll never go bust doing that!
The other half of the dilemma is what then do you buy as a replacement if you're minded to do more than just keep the proceeds on deposit earning zilch right now? If something genuinely more attractive presents itself, then fine but I've rarely come across better value than here in this sector, both statistically and with an eye to its potential, bearing in mind the upcoming developments.

That's kept me holding this for over ten years now but, ultimately, the name of the game is it's never wrong to take a profit, especially a decent one! - sasa.

Can't find any particular reason for it (other than the general clamour for gas supplies) but in these mkts / ahead of the H1 figs, it bodes well for the sp moving steadily towards Serica's true value - sasa.

Looking cheap again, imv - sasa.

Judging by the impressive dataset Serica holds regarding North Eigg in particular, the CoS must be pretty high here, bearing in mind they're adjacent to Rhum with many similarities. Although a 45% 'farm in ' would be the ideal option, Serica's 'poor' drilling record over time (as NewK's already pointed out) could be about to change here, whether they go alone or not.

Clearly, with gas prices so high and the clamour for such resources materially enhancing the value of this additional asset, if successful, will indeed form a good part of Serica's future value for us as shareholders and any other interested party, too - sasa.

Hi TDT - very useful / interesting overview of the world situation covering the principal metals...
Thanks for posting - sasa.

With the sp now up another 6% odd to 195p at this point, the daily increase in price we're now seeing is quite suggestive of something else being afoot; it can't just be the record gas prices or the good H1 figs we're all looking forward to, surely?

They're very supportive, of course but... sasa.

PS I like your analogy with buzzing bees, NewK.

Serica seems to be being taken more seriously at last, given the many positives to hand - might the BoD also be considering a move up to the main mkt next year, to explain the sudden rise in the sp? Or, maybe, there's something else behind it?

Nice to see while we await the H1 figs, anyway - sasa.

And eps are reality - never mind EBITDA - sasa.

Just seen Serica jump up to this level on another site... sasa.

Yep, I twigged that, too, pickedpeck - sasa.