Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
And maybe this single 6 foot frack result qualifies as >50bopd.
Rather demonstrates what Alkaid is capable of delivering - and from a single 6ft frack which apparently avoided sand and gas issues.
“… The well was then turned back on and the oil cut increased steadily to +40%, producing about 80-100BOPD with occasional slugs of oil producing at much higher rate…”
“… We only tested a 6 foot section of the oil reservoir after a small stimulation, which was sufficient to generate rapid flow back with increasing oil cut…”
from: The Alkaid#1 Well, successful flow test, RNS 25 March, 2019
I was having a listen again to some old Q&A s – and I thought it nice to hear Jay saying at the lead in to the April 2022 Webinar Q&A section:
“…. If we add 5% recovery to that, it’s over a billion barrels more. These are huge reservoirs – and as we’ve seen with Prudoe Bay, big reservoirs get bigger and better over time and I’m convinced that we’re on the cusp of that.”
That’s at:
http://www.pantheonresources.com/
click on 26th April 2022 Presentation and slide timeline to about 1:40:30
And indeed, one can easily begin to see the way to the start of that additional recovery, with the expected future re-injection of gas for Alkaid#2:
Secondary oil recovery: a recovery improvement process eg. waterflooding or gasflooding.
IMHO DYOR
Cringsing
Reiterating a previous post of mine:
….it rather look like, this winter there may not be the need for any hurried ice road construction, nor frantic need of a drill rig and early spud date for Talitha B.
[From 30Dec2022 RNS].
“Recently we have formulated plans to target the SMD through directional drilling from the existing Alkaid pad.
This offers several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location to assess the same target, including
(i) the ability to drill year round, eliminating the requirement to complete works by close of the winter season,
(ii) drilling from the Alkaid #2 pad allows the possibility to undertake long term production testing on the SMD which would not be possible from a location drilled from an ice pad where testing is limited by the length of the winter season, and
(iii) rather than plugging and abandoning the well as is typical after a winter test well, we can complete it for production in a success case or, subject to relevant approvals, possibly convert it to a gas and water disposal well. This offers tremendous advantages, allowing wells on the pad, such as Alkaid #2 (and future wells), to produce year round….”
Made me think back to another oil discovery involving fractures - Hurricane Energy’s Lancaster field to the West of Shetland – I’m sure one or two on here must also recall it. That discovery was totally about the well connecting with the rock fracture network, as the rock itself - being granitic - had no pores in which to hold any oil – but those natural fractures - they were like many interconnected pipes filled with oil.
On their flow test, the RNS reported on 26 June 2014:
“Natural flow - maximum sustainable flow rate of 5,300 STB/d”
And they even went on to produce, using horizontal wells with pumps, at a much higher rate than that.
Not saying we are in for quite those kind of figures – obviously a fracture network can be small and quite local, but it can also be huge and brimming with hydrocarbons.
Fracture Networks are also a little tricky, apparently, to prove as to what kind of fracture network you have made contacted with - are these just large underground cracks in the rock, or does the fracturing extend into the rock itself as micro fracturing - if the later, even better, as it assists in increasing the permiability for any oil and gas flowing from the rock pores - much in the way that fracking does when performed on a well.
So, it would appear we have good news, but answers are still needed to lot of unknowns as to just how good - however, I've been impressed with what I've seen of this company over the last two years. I think those unknowns rest in good hands.
Fingers firmly crossed, this turns out as good as we all hope it will.
IMHO DYOR
Monday 16Jan23 PANR closed at 45.48p
With ~812mil shares that’s a market cap of ~ £369.3mil
With Schlumberger’s analysis of PANR’s recoverable barrels so far totalling 1.78billion
Then that’s 1.78billion for our mkt cap of just £0.369billion
Or 0.369 / 1.78 = 20.7p per barrel recoverable.
And at 16:30 today Brent was ~$84.28 [at 1.22 US$ = £1] = £69.08
So, at 16:30 today 333.7 barrels of PANR recoverable oil had the same $ value as 1 barrel of Brent !
The price of 1 barrel of PANR recoverable was valued at just 0.3% of a barrel of Brent
That’s a discount on Brent of £68.87 [ that’s $84 discount]
Amounting to a discount of 99.7%
Wow!!
.......... someone like to check those decimal points.
*It’s worth a look at an old webinar at 58m in
https://youtu.be/8B3KWSG8WPs
100-150bpd modelling
Think we have unknowingly raised the bar unfortunately regarding *
Agreed Blackadder, the modelling for Alkaid2 does say 100 to 150bopd per 1000ft horizontal
So, for our approx. 4000ft of working horizontal, then their prior modelling does point us to be looking for 400 to 600bopd.
And what have we recently achieved: 200bopd + over 300barrels other liquid hydrocarbons.
As the other liquid hydrocarbons, we are told, will achieve ~80% to 90% of the oil price, then based on price alone we would expect those 300 barrels to give a minimum of x 0.8 of the price of oil - thus giving a market value for those 300 barrels as equating to 300 x 0.8 barrels of 'normal' oil
ie. financially equating to 240 barrels of oil
So, on a ‘market value basis’, our last production rate equated to at least 200 + 240 barrels of oil
And on that 440 ‘market value barrels of oil per day’, we are already therefore exceeding the lower modelling figure of 400bopd for 4000ft. And that at the well only ~40% cleaned up.
Proportionately, when all 5,300ft of horizontal are cleaned out, that 440 ‘market value barrels of oil per day’ can be multiplied by 5,300/4000 giving 583 barrels.
And when the excess sand is out of the way, they shouldn’t have to play so ‘softly softly’ with the choke valve restricting the well’s output so much.
Then, when at 60% cleaned up, who knows, but I would have thought it would be giving us even higher numbers of ‘market value barrels of oil per day’.
And this is just the first production well – the prototype. So, room for optimising – and as I recall, Michael Duncan has already said, that they may be better opting to put the fracks a bit closer together.
Have a go substituting the 300 barrels of ‘other liquid hydrocarbons’ with the 350 barrels they said they sometimes produced and x by 0.9 for the possible 90% price – so giving the ‘upper market value of barrels per day’ figure, from the number ranges we’ve so far been given.
IMHO DYOR
https://energycapitalpower.com/top-5-upstream-drilling-in-africa-in-2023/
see section: CHAD
What can we make of this?
OilBcNu
– as mention previously, it rather looks like, this winter there may not be the need for any hurried ice road construction, nor the frantic need of a drill rig and an early as possible spud date for Talitha B.
Their recent plans offer: “…several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location….”
[Recalling their comments from 30Dec2022 RNS].
“Recently we have formulated plans to target the SMD through directional drilling from the existing Alkaid pad.
This offers several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location to assess the same target, including
(i) the ability to drill year round, eliminating the requirement to complete works by close of the winter season,
(ii) drilling from the Alkaid #2 pad allows the possibility to undertake long term production testing on the SMD which would not be possible from a location drilled from an ice pad where testing is limited by the length of the winter season, and
(iii) rather than plugging and abandoning the well as is typical after a winter test well, we can complete it for production in a success case or, subject to relevant approvals, possibly convert it to a gas and water disposal well. This offers tremendous advantages, allowing wells on the pad, such as Alkaid #2 (and future wells), to produce year round….”
Yes, and Bob gives a plus point regarding the gas at ~10m:34s into the video: “ …. we have a lot of energy in the reservoir – more than we expected when we first drilled the well. And that energy – the gas – is helping to lift the hydrocarbons out of the ground – which, typically means we’re going to get a better recovery – which is a positive”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRk3E1-118U&t=634s
….it rather look like, this winter there may not be the need for any hurried ice road construction, nor the frantic need of a drill rig and early spud date for Talitha B.
Pkyb 14:52
[Recalling thier comments from 30Dec2022 RNS].
“Recently we have formulated plans to target the SMD through directional drilling from the existing Alkaid pad.
This offers several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location to assess the same target, including
(i) the ability to drill year round, eliminating the requirement to complete works by close of the winter season,
(ii) drilling from the Alkaid #2 pad allows the possibility to undertake long term production testing on the SMD which would not be possible from a location drilled from an ice pad where testing is limited by the length of the winter season, and
(iii) rather than plugging and abandoning the well as is typical after a winter test well, we can complete it for production in a success case or, subject to relevant approvals, possibly convert it to a gas and water disposal well. This offers tremendous advantages, allowing wells on the pad, such as Alkaid #2 (and future wells), to produce year round….”
...valuable it’s going to be."
And thanks again to GeodesRock49 for this link - an interesting video clip on oil API Gravity:
https://kimray.com/training/types-crude-oil-heavy-vs-light-sweet-vs-sour-and-tan-count
A look at slide 10 of PANR’s jan2022 presentation shows the company estimated the NPV10 of just the Alkaid Deep resource [Alkaid 2‘s location] at a $70 oil price, is worth $833million - and worth $1,040 million at $80 oil.
Not bad for just 3.4% of their current recoverable resource.
I say current resource as we still have additions to be made to that 2.3billion barrels recoverable figure - including:
The greater depth of oil bearing rock found in the Alkaid 2 vertical drill [ compared to Alkaid 1].
The better than expected Alkaid 2 vertical well. “Initial analysis indicates significant improvements in reservoir quality which could potentially lead to a material upgrade of the current resource for all targeted horizons.” [29jly22 RNS]
And not forgetting the recent 40,000 acres acquisition to expand on the existing 153,000 acres – that’s a 26% increase in area – and I don’t think PANR acquired it for its scenic aesthetics, so we could be looking at about a 26% increase in the current 2.3billion barrels recoverable, just from that – and that would then be ~2.89billion barrels !!
I also don’t think the total reserves figure includes findings in:
the SFS [slope fan system] - results from Talitha A [21feb22 RNS].
or the Kuparuk.
Anyone know for sure about those last two?
IMHO DYOR
… barrels recoverable resource.
Talitha and Theta West have different hydrocarbon trapping systems and are a much larger resource.
[Taken from the 3Jan2023 RNS].
So, it does rather look a bit like 'the tail wagging the dog' - pricewise - at the moment.
Interesting slightly off topic - re Artificial Intelligence Chat GPT-3 using an on screen avatar image:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO2o00fVBPk#t=1m04s
Interesting slightly off topic - re Artificial Intelligence Chat GPT-3 using an on screen avatar image:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO2o00fVBPk#t=1m04s
Map showing location of Proposed 88e Hickory-1 drill location relative to PANR’s Talitha A and proposed Talitha B.
https://www.reddit.com/r/3CPG_PetroleumGeology/comments/104adnt/pantheon_resources_plc_aka_great_bear_pantheon_is/
Telemachus — Yesterday at 1:10 PM
"I would simply urge people to avoid panicking because they are discovering things they did not know that they did not know and assuming the worst."
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/102ww06/two_post_by_telemachus_worth_considering/
....that experienced O&G people have not panicked."
Another reassuring tweet - this one from Petroleum Geologist: Geodesrock49 :
https://twitter.com/GeodesRock49/status/1610378546958184448