So, What Percentage Might We Need to Initially Farm Out…10 Mar 2023 10:36
Bob says in the 6March interview at time 7m 30s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBkbrRz8dFQ#t=450
that, as the Shelf Margin Deltaic [SMD] sits right above the Alkaid Anomaly [ the Alkaid #2s vertical part of the well pierced the SMD ] it would be an extremely cheap option to ‘move the needle’ and prove up a lot of hydrocarbons, to use the vertical bore of Alkaid#2 to do a vertical flow test on the SMD – since they’ve not as yet managed to flow test the SMD.
He then goes on to say, that proving up the SMD and being able to discuss the economics of being able to develop that and the Alkaid Anomaly together massively changes the economics of the Alkaid.
So, looks to me like they’ll produce from the Alkaid2 horizontal until they get their decline rate data and then come up-hole and do a frack on the vertical - on the SMD. Flow test that and then, with those figures, go for a Farm out of a unit which combines the SMD and the Alkaid Anomaly.
Those two have combined recoverables of 404mmbbls + 76.5mmbbls = 480.5mmbbls
Hence if we managed to farm out just 20% of that 480.5mmbbls unit at only $1/bbl we’d have ~$96million cash, which would allow us to participate in an 80% working interest funding of an SMD horizontal well drilled from the existing Alkaid2 gravel pad and still have plenty to go put some more 'holes’ in Theta West - to progress the proving up of our ‘giant elephant of a field’
And at that, it would cost us 20% of 480.5mmbbls ie. 96.1mmbbls of our Alkaid Anomaly + SMD recoverables.
Then relating that to our total potential recoverable resource, ie. applying Pantheon's estimated 10% recovery factor to Schlumberger's estimated 17.8 billion barrels of oil in place from Pantheon’s current ~153,000 leasehold acres, we get 1.78billion bbls less 96.1mmbbls = 1.68 billion bbls.
And that’s a ‘cost’ of just 5.4% of our 1.78billion bbls of recoverables. Not too much of a dent.
And of course, later this year we are to add more leased acres –
RNS 10Nov22 shows PANR leases this year to total some 193,000 acres – and I wouldn’t imagine PANR is going to lease these extra acres for their scenic views, I assume they have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the 3D seismic they have – so, might we assume similar oil accumulations to our existing acres? The increase from 153,000 acres to 193,000 acres is a 26% rise – and if we assume a pro rata increases with the oil in place, then the present 17.8Bil bbls OIP would rise 26% to become 22.4Bil bbls OIP.
So, looks like something near those figures would more than make good any 5.4% 'mini-dent' in recoverables as seen in the above speculative Farm-out example.
And remember, the recent North slope sale:
Oil Search announced 31 Oct. 2017 that it reached a $400 million deal with Armstrong Energy and GMT Exploration Co.
Oil Search equated the deal as buying into Nanushuk for approximately $3.10 per barrel.
[The Oct 2017 Brent averaged ~ $58/bbl] So, above eg. at $1/bbl likely conserva
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