Member Info for Sailplane

Recalling from the 8Dec2021 RNS:
“Extensive State 16-2LN-CC production test successfully concluded;
Proven rate-constrained production high of 1,083 barrels of oil equivalent per day;
Simulation modelling indicates potential rates of 2,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day;
Highly successful appraisal suggests large hydrocarbon resource.”

“The test was rate-constrained to minimise flow assurance issues from salt deposition in the well bore. Future flow assurance issues are expected to be mitigated when the well's final completion equipment is installed.”

Our 6feb23 RNS clearly says, early March spud:
“Permitting for the Hickory-1 well is now largely complete with the approval of the AOGCC PTD, ahead of targeted spud in early March 2023.”
So, if all goes to plan, there should be enough time –
Pantheon have just used the rig – not to drill, but to pull the production tubing out of the vertical of their Alkaid#2 well to give the full diameter access afforded by the well’s outer casing ( the production tubing is a narrow pipe fitting inside the outer steel casing of the well - it enables the well pressure to better lift the oil to the surface because of its lesser cross-sectional area compared to that of the outer casing.) – now with that out of the way they are sending down a long tube - from a coiled tubing unit - to reach right to the tip of their 1 mile long horizontal well section and use this to clean out the excess fracking sand they have down there.
They are scheduled to doing the sand cleanout this weekend.
Then the Coiled Tubing Unit will move off the well and the Rig will move back onto the well - to reinstall the production tubing that it pulled out earlier.
If still unsure of the layout of this well pipework, Scroll halfway down this article to view a simple diagram of the relationship between the outer well casing and the inner, narrower production tubing.
https://cargohandbook.com/Oil_Well_Casing

Now, you don't see those words that often.
"Our drilling success combined with the field's strong natural aquifer support that allow for recovery factors beyond 30% has underpinned a world class oil operation that is expected to deliver immense free cash flow for the next 20 years."

>30% recovery - these appear to be rather impressive horizontal wells - that feeling supported, for instance, by the
3rdNov22 RNS: PetroTal Announces Robust Initial Production For Well 13H Average production over 8,000 bopd during first week.

And I guess this line, from today's RNS, kind of sums up "We see significant upside with respect to PUD, Probable, and Possible reserve values that are not reflected in our current market valuation."
IMHO

matt - agreed, but if hypothetically there was a buyer for the company, they might view such a large 3P as a safety net for the 1P+2P valuation - which if over £2/share doesn't look shabby - they'd of course have to discount that value maybe say 33% to give them their profit on the project - still looks to me very healthy from where the sp is now.
IMHO DYOR

So at todays US$1.23 = £1
Looks like they're saying:
NPV10 after tax value per share:
1P = 73p
2P = 142p
3P = 232p
so to me, that totals 447p NPV10 after tax, value per share.
Anyone else's calculator get that, or have I just got a localised warp in reality?

" -- Increases to Net Present Value (discounted at 10% ("NPV-10")) after tax, per share values to US$0.90/share (CAD$1.23/share), US$1.75/share (CAD$2.29/share), and US$2.86/share (CAD$3.47/share) for 1P, 2P, and 3P categories, respectively; "

Thought this worth passing on:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/10pzvf3/discord_post_by_fugalvoice/

For those new to PANR this detailed writeup is certainly well worth a read.
And, indeed, though it’s now a few months old - for those who may currently be questioning the integrity of management, there’s even a section where the author covers ‘Management Credibility’.
Also, there is coverage, briefly, of the history of Pantheon in Texas and of the Great Bear Merger.
There’s even a tasty analogy of the Macro-Permeability question and lots, lots more.
And it finishes, aptly, with a ‘Chances of Success and Valuation’ section, basing some numbers on the success / failure at Alkaid#2.
A informative and a very readable piece by Telemachus - viewable on Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/v26f6s/an_independent_view_of_pantheons_alaskan_assets/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Something to focus on from Bob Rosenthal, on the Jan 2023 Webinar
“What Michael’s demonstrated is that, even given the product streams that we have today – the gas - natural gas, condensate and oil – the stream that we have today – that we can model that as commercial.
We can handle the gas, that we’re producing.
We can handle the water, that we’re producing.
And we know – and we know, or we believe, that by moving our well positions in - in the Alkaid field, that we can actually change the product stream and things can even get better.
I think those are really, really important messages that everybody – you know – takes away from this.
And - really focus on that.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWCLbBliIfw#t=38m20s
at about time: 38mins 20secs in.

Bob Rosenthal has over 40 years' experience in the oil and gas industry globally as an Exploration Geologist and Geophysicist. He has held various senior exploraiton positions and spent a large part of his career at Exxon and at BP, where he gained key releveant regional experience in the geology of North Slope of Alaska …
- source Pantheon resources website.

https://twitter.com/PantheonResour1/status/1618612662102794242

~ 29m 40s, on the January Webinar, where he speaks of possible future Alkaid well trajectories, locating them in the reservoir so as not to contact the gas cap. And simply by doing this, raising the exciting possibility, that without the large movement that is currently gas from the gas cap - that gas flow from the reservoir into the well bore might well be replaced by the flow of a significant amount of oil.
Michael Duncan talking about the Alkaid#2 gas flow:
“… about 2 and a 1/2 to 3 million cubic feet a day of natural gas….
… in reservoir conditions, that gas, takes up approximately 1,500 barrels….
…its very exciting to think of the possibilities, as we move out of contact with that gas, and instead, the fluid moving through the system is oil.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWCLbBliIfw#t=29m35s

And maybe this single 6 foot frack result qualifies as >50bopd.
Rather demonstrates what Alkaid is capable of delivering - and from a single 6ft frack which apparently avoided sand and gas issues.
“… The well was then turned back on and the oil cut increased steadily to +40%, producing about 80-100BOPD with occasional slugs of oil producing at much higher rate…”
“… We only tested a 6 foot section of the oil reservoir after a small stimulation, which was sufficient to generate rapid flow back with increasing oil cut…”
from: The Alkaid#1 Well, successful flow test, RNS 25 March, 2019

I was having a listen again to some old Q&A s – and I thought it nice to hear Jay saying at the lead in to the April 2022 Webinar Q&A section:
“…. If we add 5% recovery to that, it’s over a billion barrels more. These are huge reservoirs – and as we’ve seen with Prudoe Bay, big reservoirs get bigger and better over time and I’m convinced that we’re on the cusp of that.”
That’s at:
http://www.pantheonresources.com/
click on 26th April 2022 Presentation and slide timeline to about 1:40:30
And indeed, one can easily begin to see the way to the start of that additional recovery, with the expected future re-injection of gas for Alkaid#2:
Secondary oil recovery: a recovery improvement process eg. waterflooding or gasflooding.

IMHO DYOR

Cringsing
Reiterating a previous post of mine:

….it rather look like, this winter there may not be the need for any hurried ice road construction, nor frantic need of a drill rig and early spud date for Talitha B.

[From 30Dec2022 RNS].
“Recently we have formulated plans to target the SMD through directional drilling from the existing Alkaid pad.
This offers several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location to assess the same target, including
(i) the ability to drill year round, eliminating the requirement to complete works by close of the winter season,
(ii) drilling from the Alkaid #2 pad allows the possibility to undertake long term production testing on the SMD which would not be possible from a location drilled from an ice pad where testing is limited by the length of the winter season, and
(iii) rather than plugging and abandoning the well as is typical after a winter test well, we can complete it for production in a success case or, subject to relevant approvals, possibly convert it to a gas and water disposal well. This offers tremendous advantages, allowing wells on the pad, such as Alkaid #2 (and future wells), to produce year round….”

Made me think back to another oil discovery involving fractures - Hurricane Energy’s Lancaster field to the West of Shetland – I’m sure one or two on here must also recall it. That discovery was totally about the well connecting with the rock fracture network, as the rock itself - being granitic - had no pores in which to hold any oil – but those natural fractures - they were like many interconnected pipes filled with oil.
On their flow test, the RNS reported on 26 June 2014:
“Natural flow - maximum sustainable flow rate of 5,300 STB/d”
And they even went on to produce, using horizontal wells with pumps, at a much higher rate than that.

Not saying we are in for quite those kind of figures – obviously a fracture network can be small and quite local, but it can also be huge and brimming with hydrocarbons.
Fracture Networks are also a little tricky, apparently, to prove as to what kind of fracture network you have made contacted with - are these just large underground cracks in the rock, or does the fracturing extend into the rock itself as micro fracturing - if the later, even better, as it assists in increasing the permiability for any oil and gas flowing from the rock pores - much in the way that fracking does when performed on a well.

So, it would appear we have good news, but answers are still needed to lot of unknowns as to just how good - however, I've been impressed with what I've seen of this company over the last two years. I think those unknowns rest in good hands.
Fingers firmly crossed, this turns out as good as we all hope it will.
IMHO DYOR

Baxi - fine by me.

Monday 16Jan23 PANR closed at 45.48p
With ~812mil shares that’s a market cap of ~ £369.3mil
With Schlumberger’s analysis of PANR’s recoverable barrels so far totalling 1.78billion
Then that’s 1.78billion for our mkt cap of just £0.369billion
Or 0.369 / 1.78 = 20.7p per barrel recoverable.
And at 16:30 today Brent was ~$84.28 [at 1.22 US$ = £1] = £69.08
So, at 16:30 today 333.7 barrels of PANR recoverable oil had the same $ value as 1 barrel of Brent !
The price of 1 barrel of PANR recoverable was valued at just 0.3% of a barrel of Brent
That’s a discount on Brent of £68.87 [ that’s $84 discount]
Amounting to a discount of 99.7%
Wow!!

.......... someone like to check those decimal points.

*It’s worth a look at an old webinar at 58m in
https://youtu.be/8B3KWSG8WPs
100-150bpd modelling
Think we have unknowingly raised the bar unfortunately regarding *

Agreed Blackadder, the modelling for Alkaid2 does say 100 to 150bopd per 1000ft horizontal
So, for our approx. 4000ft of working horizontal, then their prior modelling does point us to be looking for 400 to 600bopd.
And what have we recently achieved: 200bopd + over 300barrels other liquid hydrocarbons.
As the other liquid hydrocarbons, we are told, will achieve ~80% to 90% of the oil price, then based on price alone we would expect those 300 barrels to give a minimum of x 0.8 of the price of oil - thus giving a market value for those 300 barrels as equating to 300 x 0.8 barrels of 'normal' oil
ie. financially equating to 240 barrels of oil
So, on a ‘market value basis’, our last production rate equated to at least 200 + 240 barrels of oil
And on that 440 ‘market value barrels of oil per day’, we are already therefore exceeding the lower modelling figure of 400bopd for 4000ft. And that at the well only ~40% cleaned up.
Proportionately, when all 5,300ft of horizontal are cleaned out, that 440 ‘market value barrels of oil per day’ can be multiplied by 5,300/4000 giving 583 barrels.
And when the excess sand is out of the way, they shouldn’t have to play so ‘softly softly’ with the choke valve restricting the well’s output so much.
Then, when at 60% cleaned up, who knows, but I would have thought it would be giving us even higher numbers of ‘market value barrels of oil per day’.
And this is just the first production well – the prototype. So, room for optimising – and as I recall, Michael Duncan has already said, that they may be better opting to put the fracks a bit closer together.
Have a go substituting the 300 barrels of ‘other liquid hydrocarbons’ with the 350 barrels they said they sometimes produced and x by 0.9 for the possible 90% price – so giving the ‘upper market value of barrels per day’ figure, from the number ranges we’ve so far been given.
IMHO DYOR

https://energycapitalpower.com/top-5-upstream-drilling-in-africa-in-2023/
see section: CHAD

What can we make of this?

OilBcNu
– as mention previously, it rather looks like, this winter there may not be the need for any hurried ice road construction, nor the frantic need of a drill rig and an early as possible spud date for Talitha B.
Their recent plans offer: “…several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location….”

[Recalling their comments from 30Dec2022 RNS].
“Recently we have formulated plans to target the SMD through directional drilling from the existing Alkaid pad.
This offers several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location to assess the same target, including
(i) the ability to drill year round, eliminating the requirement to complete works by close of the winter season,
(ii) drilling from the Alkaid #2 pad allows the possibility to undertake long term production testing on the SMD which would not be possible from a location drilled from an ice pad where testing is limited by the length of the winter season, and
(iii) rather than plugging and abandoning the well as is typical after a winter test well, we can complete it for production in a success case or, subject to relevant approvals, possibly convert it to a gas and water disposal well. This offers tremendous advantages, allowing wells on the pad, such as Alkaid #2 (and future wells), to produce year round….”

Yes, and Bob gives a plus point regarding the gas at ~10m:34s into the video: “ …. we have a lot of energy in the reservoir – more than we expected when we first drilled the well. And that energy – the gas – is helping to lift the hydrocarbons out of the ground – which, typically means we’re going to get a better recovery – which is a positive”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRk3E1-118U&t=634s