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From Scott & Tele
https://twitter.com/Scot126126
Recalling extracts of the Dec2021 RNS's:
7Dec2021 RNS
Use of proceeds
The gross minimum proceeds of the Fundraise of $70 million are expected to be used as follows:
Talitha $10.7m
Theta West $16.7m
Alkaid $23.2m
Contingency & corporate development*
$17.1m
Fundraise deal costs
$2.3m
Minimum fundraise
[Total =] $70.0m
*Corporate development may include: development of additional production facilities at Alkaid, additional testing (if appropriate), preparation for the winter 2023 programme, Convertible Bonds financing (if appropriate), further technical work and general working capital.
8Dec2021 RNS
Jay Cheatham, CEO of Pantheon Resources, said:
"Raising up to $96 million through a combination of equity and convertible debt is a fantastic result, and the fact that the equity raise was substantially oversubscribed is a great show of confidence in our projects by both existing and new shareholders.
This funding allows the Company to fully execute our 2022 programme to assess eight targets across three wells - four targets with the reentry of Talitha #A, and two targets each at Theta West and at our Alkaid 2H development well adjacent to the Dalton Highway and TAPS. On success, the Alkaid 2H well will be the first producer for Pantheon on the North Slope, a fantastic milestone.
In total we're targeting 17 billion barrels of oil in place and over 2.2 billion barrels of Recoverable Resource, according to our estimates.
Additionally, we now have sufficient funding for additional drilling, testing and completion, and we can evaluate the drilling of a second production well. Further, the funding potentially gives us flexibility into 2023 and strengthens our balance sheet ahead of future farm-out or financing negotiations."
DT 10:00
The - only 500bpd hydrocarbon liquids rate - is due to about 60% of the fluids flowing back at the moment being of fracking fluid
[“Importantly, it is estimated that the well is still less than 40% of the way through cleanup phase…”]
so, as it cleans up further and more and more of the frack fluid is recovered, the oil cut should increase significantly.
They are also ‘throttled back’ on the flow rate to avoid dislodging frack sand out of the rock fractures at this early stage where the rock may not yet have fully ‘relaxed back’ to trap some of the Fracking sand particles
[“…a conservative approach in flow testing of not 'pulling on the reservoir' too hard, allowing the natural healing of the fractures to minimise future sand flow”].
Also, they are estimating that they are only ‘seeing’ about 4000ft of the horizontal well due to coil tubing cleanout not reaching into the whole 5,300ft horizontal.
So, lots of room for this well to improve - noteably by:
Increasing oil to frack fluid ratio
Increasing oil by producing from the full 5,300ft lateral
Increasing [throttling up / de-restricting] the produced flow rate at the well head
As Jay says: “To have this level of production at this stage in the "clean up" phase of production testing remains positive.”
This is not investment advice – as always, please do your own research.
In an interview on 28Oct22, Michael Duncan said they hoped 2 to 3 wks for the frack-water, pre production cleanup:
see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sUjszlKUL0&t=196s
And if this Flowback clean up resumed around 8Dec22
[In the 8Dec2022 RNS: "The well is still early in the cleanup phase..." ] then 2 to 3wks would mean it should be substantially cleaned up by about 22 to 29Dec22.
Interesting line from RNS 20May 2019 re Alkaid#1 - anyone recall comment being made since this, regarding plans for pursuing production from Alkaid#1?
"Subsequent to the announcement of Alkaid as a discovery well following the successful production testing operations in the primary zone of interest (the "ZOI" or "Brookian formation"), the wellbore has been successfully suspended and freeze protected for future production purposes. Data analysis is ongoing. Interpretation to date suggests that the reservoir quality encountered in the ZOI is greatly superior to pre-drill estimates which should have positive implications for possible reserve and production potential at the Alkaid prospect.
Anyone seen any info on if they have yet started the Ice Road for Talitha B?
According to the 'UNIT PLAN OF OPERATIONS APPLICATION' that someone posted about a month ago,
the Prepack then construction of Ice Road and Ice Drillpad had start and finish dates as being: 12/15/2022 & 1/15/2023
... estimated mid December:
"Commenced drilling well 12H. On October 16, 2022, the Company commenced drilling well 12H with a budgeted cost of $14 million and estimated completion in mid December 2022." [from 17Nov2022 RNS]
And with 18,000bopd production expected since the successful discusions lifted the river blockade on 14Dec2022 [from RNS 15Dec2022]
- I think things are starting to look up. And Malcy is quite positive, too: on the 15th he wrote: "The shares are up some 10% as 41p but I havent changed my L/T share price target of 150p there is still a huge amount of upside."
https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/12/oil-price-petrotal-kistos-hunting-getech-and-finally/
So, in the 8Dec22 RNS, what do you read into it when Bob says,” I believe our current estimate of 10% has the potential to be conservative based on what we are seeing at the moment…” What, exactly, do you think it is they’re 'seeing at the moment'? What would elicit such a comment: 10% [recovery] has the potential to be conservative.
Could it maybe be allied to the 25Oct22 RNS, where Jay added: "It is encouraging that the reservoir response to the stimulation procedure has been very good, as we have experienced strong initial fluid flows measured in the thousands of barrels per day.”
Could it perhaps tie in with Jay’s positive comment: “Upgrading our facilities to a larger capacity was a sensible decision, giving the Company the flexibility and freedom to bring multiple wells into production at the Alkaid #2 location in due course.” from the 6Sept22 RNS.
Or even link way back to encompass the 18Aug22 RNS comment on the Alkaid#2 well: “Analysis of the logging while drilling (LWD) and gas chromatograph readings indicate that the improved reservoir parameters encountered in the vertical pilot hole have continued or improved in the horizontal well bore.”
Do all of these, maybe, combine with the 'seen at the moment', flowback performance - and highlight their 10% estimate as truely having the potential to be conservative? And if so.......
Bob, to what degree are we likely to be talking?
Might that be a bit of a smile, or a canyon-wide grin?
DYOR
https://www.share-talk.com/pantheon-resources-catalyst-imminent-the-shorts-could-be-very-wrong/
And then maybe take a look at the Alkaid 3D Animation of the then proposed Alkaid#2 well.
A few minutes watching this 3D animation part of an August 2021 presentation should help to visualise the wells and reservoirs, in 3D, and help to see some of what is going on.
The Alkaid section of the animation starts at about 1:05:50
where it's looking at Alkaid 2H [the Alkaid 2 horizontal well]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbnmarRCUcY&t=3950s
And then there were a couple of notable comments that spring to mind:
At 38:32, Dr Ed Duncan, Geoscience consultant to Pantheon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbnmarRCUcY&t=2312s
“What we found is truly amazing – the Theta West Fan – while we thought it was going to be good – it’s spectacular.”
And at 1:41:31, Roger Young of eSeis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbnmarRCUcY&t=6091s
“It just keeps on getting better…. I’ve never seen anything like it. To be able to even say the words – Half a Mile of Oil – that’s ridiculous, but it’s true. It’s awesome. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s very, very exciting stuff.”
As always DYOR.
And good luck.
And to put Schlumberger's estimated 17.8 billion barrels of OIP into perspective, after applying Pantheon's estimated 10% recovery factor.
For those 1.78billion recoverable barrels, it works out at:
4.87million bbls of production every day for 1 year or
~487,000 bbls of production every day for 10 years or
~48,700 bbls every day for 100 years !!
And that's before they add in any upgrades and the new lease areas, or start talking more seriously, maybe, about greater than a 10% recovery factor.
From the Schlumberger modelling estimates of the reservoirs containing 17.8 billion barrels net OIP for the PANR 153,000 acres, then once the ~ 40,000 more acres, from the recent leases acquisition, are added - giving a total of ~ 193,000 acres – and assuming similar reservoir characteristics for these added areas - pro rata the 17.8Bil bbls OIP becomes – according to my calculator – 22.45Bil bbls OIP.
Do other calculators out there agree?
Could mean a Monday RNS - fingers crossed.
https://twitter.com/KennardKrazies/status/1598657711410860033/photo/1
https://twitter.com/KennardKrazies/status/1598657711410860033
"Defining Oil Field Size"
Interesting comments and slides:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/z8tr6k/defining_oil_field_size/
I think with the sizes of Pantheon’s resources being so big, it’s easy to loose sight of just how huge they actually are.
For instance, the recoverable oil, put at over 2.3billion barrels, [and that figure is yet to be upgraded from data after the drilling of Alkaid#2 along with the additions from the extra 40,000acres leases]
– if 2.3 billion is considered for production over 20 years,
it works out at 2,300,000,000barrels divided over 7,305days [that's 20 years, including leap year days]
It requires a production at an average rate of 314,853 bopd... yes, every day, for 20 years.
And that 2.3billion barrels recoverable is at a very conservative recovery rate of around just 10% - we might even see that rate at least doubled, using modern recovery methods.
So, for every $1 per barrel value we attribute to each barrel of recoverable oil we have, it amounts to a value of ~240p/share
[using: 2.3billion barrels oil recoverable & 800 million shares & £1 = $1.2]
ref:
RNS 7jly22:
"We have discovered a lot of oil on the ANS across our Theta West, Talitha and Greater Alkaid projects which are estimated by management to contain over 23 billion barrels of Oil in Place and over 2.3 billion barrels of recoverable resource in those horizons that have flowed oil, and Alkaid #2 could add to these estimates."
And since then we have added more acres –
RNS 10Nov22 now shows PANR leases total some 193,000 acres
IMHO DYOR.
Saudi Arabia says it is not discussing 500k b/d oil output hike. MORE IMPORTANTLY, it hints it's ready to cut:
Saudi Arabia says that the current cut of 2 million barrels a day by OPEC+ continues until end of 2023 and that it stands ready to make further cuts if required.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/saudis-deny-report-talks-opec-171131913.html
An interesting possibility ?:
As much of the damage and hold ups on the ONP pipeline route occur in the section between pump stations 1 and 5, there’s the possibility of barging the oil past station 1 and heading further west on the river to station 5 before delivering the barged oil to the ONP.
https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/63590b2298f6352ab0eba9cc/637697ebc5f88b20ebef1f43
This question posed at 45m:53s
Q: "What are the companies thoughts on barging up [to] station 5?"
A: "…. That’s what I’m thinking as well… having discussions… we are taking a serious look at that. "
PTAL would need to provide a 13mile pipe from the river to the Station 5 site - or they could truck it.
And I think Manolo does say they would be provided there with proper protection for unloading and so on.
It would then give [ hopefully] a more robust westerly route for the oil - to the Talara refinery.