Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Correction – it should have said:
But their current sp, at this moment, is only ~2.5 P/E based on last year’s Net Income/share!!
Anyway, back to Pantheon - It’ll be nice if the 88e Hickory1 well comes in good, with what I consider to be a very cheap step-out appraisal well, for PANR.
There wireline logging results for the SMD and SFS and BFF should be out, by the looks of it, about 5th to 10th of April.
that PTAL have had with their horizontal wells: their RNS today highlights two recent ones, both with initial production rates in excess of 10,000 bopd. But their current sp at this moment is only ~2.5 based on last year’s Net Income/share!!
And we have ~ 2billion recoverable barrels and a share price currently valuing that at only about 9.25cents/bbl – so just a tiny little bit short of the approx $3.1/bbl, of the often quoted, North Slope, Oil Search deal.
Is the oil sector really so unloved, despite providing the world with it’s fertilizers, man-made fibres for clothing, paints, insulation and apparently, even wind turbine blades!
Amazing.
Ok - ever so slightly frustrated rant over.
The Company will release its 2022 year-end results on March 30, 2023. An investor webcast will follow...
If, in the final results, we manage to just hang on to 2022’s first 9mths Diluted net income / share, of 18cents [see RNS 17Nov2022] then at £1 : US$1.23 that’s ~14.6p/share [would now be slightly less/share due to the slight increase in number of shares in issue since the 2022 Q3 results] - but let’s say, multiply that by an undemanding Price to Earnings Ratio of 5… could we really be potentially looking at an SP of near to 73p?
DYOR
https://www.bigmarker.com/share-talk/Pantheon-Resources-AGM-Shareholder-Presentation-and-Q-A-March-2023
.... And David Hobbs will be one of the featured presenters.
A bit bigger/better pics on reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/
Scroll down a tad and 3 pics of the Alkaid site flaring and the lower group of 4 pics of 88e - now with rig in place.
https://twitter.com/GeodesRock49
... an unimpeded route to market this year.
Only wish some of my other oil company investments could manage to drill wells that were half as productive as these at Petrotal.
Well, obviously not my only wish - be really nice too, if the fruits of all the efforts made by Petrotal could appear on the radar screens of many more investors.
The Alkaid#2 Anomaly production 'commingled' with the SMD - that's after the SMDs been perforated, fractured and a test of its initial flow made.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/11l96no/interesting_post_by_georocks_about_a2_and_a1/
from @geodesrock49: some nice details here, for those investors not quite up to speed yet on
why Alkaid#2 needs gas – but not too much gas.
https://twitter.com/GeodesRock49
scroll down a little to start at section: 1 / 2 ...& then on to 2 / 2.
Bob says in the 6March interview at time 7m 30s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBkbrRz8dFQ#t=450
that, as the Shelf Margin Deltaic [SMD] sits right above the Alkaid Anomaly [ the Alkaid #2s vertical part of the well pierced the SMD ] it would be an extremely cheap option to ‘move the needle’ and prove up a lot of hydrocarbons, to use the vertical bore of Alkaid#2 to do a vertical flow test on the SMD – since they’ve not as yet managed to flow test the SMD.
He then goes on to say, that proving up the SMD and being able to discuss the economics of being able to develop that and the Alkaid Anomaly together massively changes the economics of the Alkaid.
So, looks to me like they’ll produce from the Alkaid2 horizontal until they get their decline rate data and then come up-hole and do a frack on the vertical - on the SMD. Flow test that and then, with those figures, go for a Farm out of a unit which combines the SMD and the Alkaid Anomaly.
Those two have combined recoverables of 404mmbbls + 76.5mmbbls = 480.5mmbbls
Hence if we managed to farm out just 20% of that 480.5mmbbls unit at only $1/bbl we’d have ~$96million cash, which would allow us to participate in an 80% working interest funding of an SMD horizontal well drilled from the existing Alkaid2 gravel pad and still have plenty to go put some more 'holes’ in Theta West - to progress the proving up of our ‘giant elephant of a field’
And at that, it would cost us 20% of 480.5mmbbls ie. 96.1mmbbls of our Alkaid Anomaly + SMD recoverables.
Then relating that to our total potential recoverable resource, ie. applying Pantheon's estimated 10% recovery factor to Schlumberger's estimated 17.8 billion barrels of oil in place from Pantheon’s current ~153,000 leasehold acres, we get 1.78billion bbls less 96.1mmbbls = 1.68 billion bbls.
And that’s a ‘cost’ of just 5.4% of our 1.78billion bbls of recoverables. Not too much of a dent.
And of course, later this year we are to add more leased acres –
RNS 10Nov22 shows PANR leases this year to total some 193,000 acres – and I wouldn’t imagine PANR is going to lease these extra acres for their scenic views, I assume they have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the 3D seismic they have – so, might we assume similar oil accumulations to our existing acres? The increase from 153,000 acres to 193,000 acres is a 26% rise – and if we assume a pro rata increases with the oil in place, then the present 17.8Bil bbls OIP would rise 26% to become 22.4Bil bbls OIP.
So, looks like something near those figures would more than make good any 5.4% 'mini-dent' in recoverables as seen in the above speculative Farm-out example.
And remember, the recent North slope sale:
Oil Search announced 31 Oct. 2017 that it reached a $400 million deal with Armstrong Energy and GMT Exploration Co.
Oil Search equated the deal as buying into Nanushuk for approximately $3.10 per barrel.
[The Oct 2017 Brent averaged ~ $58/bbl] So, above eg. at $1/bbl likely conserva
The previous suspension for the Chad Cameroon deal I have noted down as running from 02/06/21 to a restoration on 31/12/21. So, maybe premature to get excited just yet. Would be nice, even though we're suspended, for them to feed us the occassional word as to how the rest of the business is get along.
01:04
I would have thought they'd initially test the SMD in the vertical of Alkaid#2.
This sounds to me, a good use of Alkaid#2 since the gas is impeading the oil production and be a good way forward - that is, once they have flow tested long enough to get the decline rate data they want from the Alkaid deep horizontal.
Then looks like they could drill a new horizontal SMD well from the Alkaid pad, once a Farm-in partner is onboard - and possibly then using the Alkaid #2 well as the gas reinjection well for what comes out of the SMD?
https://twitter.com/GeodesRock49/status/1632818583301677056
[scroll up to read from the start]