Dubhe#1 and a look back to previous SMD & associated testing results:2 Jul 2025 14:58
The Duhbe#1 gravel pad is well situated for a lateral drill into the shelf margin deltaic ("SMD") reservoir - or 'Ahpun western topsets', as it is now called.
So, what info do we have on the SMD.
Well, the SMD was situated just above the the Alkaid#2 well's 5,300ft lateral drilled into the then zone of interest: the 'Alkaid Anomaly'. This being quite close to the SMD it might give a degree of reference on which to base the possible outcome of Dubhe#1.
The Alkaid#2 frack efficiency on the lateral back then was only ~ 20% and the IP30 production flow rate was c.505 barrels per day ("BPD") of liquid hydrocarbons, along with c.2,300 mcfpd natural gas. ref:RNS:6th March, 2023.
Then came the recruitment of Tony Beilman, and an improved frack was demonstrated. This time, slightly higher up that same Alkaid#2 well, this time into the SMD-B layer - the improved technique achieved a much better ~50% frack efficiency, with oil flowing at 30 to 100+ bopd from the small frack made in a vertical section of the well - and despite being located on the very northern edge of this SMB reservoir's accumulation - where it begins to shale out - the RNS commented:
".. the actual flow rates were substantially better than prognosed, given the conservative approach to production in order to limit gas flashing in the reservoir.." ref:RNS:19 Oct 2023.
Analysis previously confirmed, at Alkaid#2, the SMD as Net 272 ft oil bearing reservoir ref:RNS: 29 July 2022.
So, the higher frack efficiency bodes well for a ~2.5x increase in the production rate in future wells compared with that seen at the Alkaid#2 horizontal well - and also, of course, a further 2x production rate improvement - if they drill a lateral twice that length. So, potentially 505bbls x 2.5 x 2 = 2,525bbls/day.
Also the SMD has a lesser depth of burial than the zone of interest targeted by the Alkaid#2 lateral, so that may also add a boost to production rates due to possible higher porosity and permiability .
There was also another appraisal of the SMD-B that flowed oil - just to the south of the proposed Dubhe#1 location, made by 88e - they also flowed oil from this horizon: see their RNS 15apr24: "HICKORY-1 Flow Test - Second Light Oil Discovery".
So, I believe all looking good for the forthcoming Dubhe#1 lateral apprasal well - drilling this time not at the shaling-out edge, but into the very heart of the shelf margin deltaic ("SMD") reservoir .
Relative well positions:
Alkaid#2 is ~9miles north of Duhbe#1 - SMD flowed oil in testing.
Hickory#1 is ~5miles south of Duhbe#1 - SMD flowed oil in testing.
As always DYOR