Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Derived from slide 10 in the recent December presentation:
https://chariotenergygroup.com/app/uploads/2023/12/Offshore-Partnering-slides.pdf
Loukos Onshore – Upcoming Drilling Operations (75% Chariot, 25% ONHYM)
Chariot is preparing to drill the Gaufrette prospect in Q1 2024.
They say: Gaufrette = 26Bcf giving Gross Revenues of ~US$300M
So at 75%wi = $225mil wi to CHAR.
at let's say 30% net = $67.5mil at NPV10 linear production over 5yrs = x by 0.7581 = $51.2mil = ~£41mil / 1,070mil shares
= current worth ~3.8p/share ...JUST for Onshore LOUKOS Gaufrette.
NB. as a reference 26Bcf would = 14mmcf/d for 5 yrs
So, if ~3.8p/share for 75% working interest of Gaufrette's 26Bcf
Applying prorata for Gaufrette plus Eclair's 31Bcf and Dartois's 18Bcf
we get a total of 75Bcf
and prorata that's [3.8p/26] x 75 = 10.96p/share total current days worth for Loukos.
If you want to throw a 50% Chance of Success at all of these then it's still 5.48p/share - just for the 75% wi of Loukos.
Not too shabby for a sideshow that many may have overlooked.
Anyone like to double check the maths.
All IMHO. As always DYOR.
Yes, look how the rivers are filling up nicely near to PTAL's Block 95 - should be able to fill those barges 'up to the gunwales' by now.
Could be a good month.
https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/histogramas_shna/archivos/Pucallpa.pdf
https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/histogramas_shna/archivos/Amazonas.pdf
...., at COP28, to oil phase down.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231204-saudi-arabia-says-absolutely-not-to-oil-phaseout-at-cop28
Https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/histogramas_shna/archivos/Pucallpa.pdf
https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/histogramas_shna/archivos/Amazonas.pdf
Part 2
The prize 'sweet spot' in this BFF reservoir is to the North West where the depth of burial [Dmax] is less than to the south east. Less depth of burial equals lower compaction of the reservoir rock, so more room for oil to accumulate in the rock pores and less resistance to oil flowing from pore to pore, through the rock .
See page 9 of the April 2022 presentation:
http://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/presentations/666-investor-presentation-april-2022/file
The Theta west well [to the north west] has Dmax 9,600ft and the Talitha A well Dmax is 11,600ft [ with current ground depths following erosion being 7,600ft & 9,100ft respectively] And the slide notes a rather major reservoir difference between these 2 well locations: "Theta West has over 2X the oil volume as Talitha A."
IMHO. Always DYOR.
… when nextdoor to their southern boundary, 88e have recently announced their part of this reservoir as having, we might say, a 'modest', Gross Best Estimate (2C) Contingent Resource, of 136 million barrels as independently certified by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. (NSAI)
Well, bluntly put, NSAI assessed PANR's BFF at a 2C Best Estimate of 962.5 million barrels of recoverable hydrocarbon liquids.
And PANR management consider, as this estimate doesn't include the reservoir's improved characteristics in the recently acquired north west ‘chimney’ acreage, that the 2C estimate could actually be closer to 2 billion barrels.
To peek under the hood a little and begin to see why the big difference, we need to look at a few figures and maps from PANR’s Kodiak Field Presentation 14Sept23:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aisVpzHLnbY#t=8m30s
At time 08:30 the map showing Pantheon’s acreage, complete with well positions and showing the milage distances when traversing the Basin Floor Fan reservoir.
Going from south east to north west, we pass from Pantheon’s Talitha-A well along approximately 10miles of reservoir to the Theta West-1 well, then continuing northwest another 10miles takes us into the 'chimney area' and to the north west extent of the BFF.
At time 09:00 the map includes the porosities for various locations of the BFF reservoir - higher porosities, more room for more oil in the rock.
On this map is also seen a proposed Theta West-A well located at the base of the ‘chimney’ acreage. And another ~5.3miles on into the ‘chimney’ sees the proposed Theta West-B well location.
On this map the 88e Hickory-1 well is located ~ 9miles south east of Talith-A – close to the ‘S’ in the wording: 'Scale=1:172126'
And at time 09:30 the map shows what % of the reservoir, at various locations, can be classified as conventional ie. greater than 0.1 millidarcys of permeability – the higher the permeability, the easier the oil flows through the rock to the wellbore.
From these two last maps we can see that the BFF reservoir characteristics of porosity and permiability improve when travelling north west and away from the south east locations of PANR's Talitha-A and the 88e Hickory-1 well.
DYOR
... Production Amidst Global Energy Transition
https://www.vindobona.org/article/opec-secretary-general-al-ghais-advocates-for-increased-oil-production-amidst-global-energy-transiti
…PANR’s early days in Alaska.
2019 Alkaid#1 was tested:
RNS 25 March, 2019: “A 6 foot interval (from a c.240 foot interval of net pay) was perforated and flow tested at 80-100 BOPD light oil…. Jay Cheatham, CEO, said: "This is an excellent result which exceeded our expectations.”
And 23Jan2020’s RNS: “…an Independent Expert Report and Resource Statement from the International Petroleum Consultants Lee Keeling & Associates, Inc. ("LKA"), on its 100% owned 'Greater Alkaid' Project…$595 million NPV10 based on modelled 44 wells, and c.70 MMBO (1) Phase 1 field development over a 20 year term at an oil price of $55 held flat - $8.50 NPV10 per barrel of oil…”
All setting the stage for that very memorable Blog from Malcy on 9Apr2020, that must have turned a few investors heads. Blog extracts:
“Following the successful Alkaid well last year the company commissioned an independent experts report which gave the company 76.5 million barrels of contingent resources with an overall P50 of 1.2bn barrels of oil equivalent….
Pantheon clearly has an absolute monster of a potential project, it has high quality directors, shareholders and first rate advisors, indeed a geophysical contractor was so impressed with what they saw they wanted their fee in shares, not possible but a 1% royalty has appeased them….
It is almost impossible to calculate how much this acreage could be worth to Pantheon, perhaps a 20 bagger, maybe 50…..”
And as a reference, the sp shows as having closed at ~13.05p on the previous day to the issue of this blog.
Even just the 20 x that, I think, would be excellent [~261p]
And for 50 x [~652.5p]
Hang on…aren’t these in a similar ballpark to our current targets of $5 to $10/bbl?
https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/04/oil-price-chariot-igas-pantheon/
IMHO As always DYOR
… paving the way to a ~150p share price on 12thApril2022.
An enlightening Technical Presentation, that some more recent investors may not have seen. The experts delivered some exciting and memorable comments back in Aug 2021, resulting from analysis of the winter season’s Talitha-A well drilling and initial testing.
At 21:18, Michael Smith – inventor of Volatiles Analysis (VAS):
“Every cutting we analysed contained oil for 3,700 feet – this is a - a quite unusual occurrence and really speaks to the great strength of the petroleum system here where this well is drilled. This is really a world class petroleum system.”
“At 38:35, Dr Ed Duncan, Geoscience consultant to Pantheon:
“What we found is truly amazing – the Theta West Fan – while we thought it was going to be good – it’s spectacular.”
At 1:41:42, Roger Young of eSeis:
“I’ve never seen anything like it. To be able to say the words – Half a Mile of Oil – that’s ridiculous, but it’s true. It’s awesome. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s very, very exciting stuff.”
And the geology that gave rise to those exciting words - it is still down there - on the Pantheon leases.
Plus now we have the additional ‘chimney’ acreage with its better, ‘updip’ BFF reservoir parameters [parameters not apparently included in the recent Kodiak NASI 2C recoverable resources figures] and we have the improved frack design, successfully demonstrated on the SMD reservoir at the Alkaid#2 well.
Presentation is at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbnmarRCUcY&t=21m18s
IMHO. As always DYOR.
...when the pressure gauge is pulled.
From 19Oct23 RNS:
"This frac has surpassed the doubling of efficiency from c.20% achieved in the Alkaid ZOI to c.50%, I.e. more than the basis upon which the development planning is being modelled. A more precise efficiency estimate will be possible when the pressure gauge is pulled from the well "
"Initial reservoir pressure was determined to be in the range 3,800 - 4,000 psi and the well has been suspended with a pressure monitoring device to further refine and confirm this estimate. We anticipate retrieving the pressure gauge in the next six weeks or thereabouts."
And 6 weeks from 19 Oct23 would be Thurs 30th Nov 2023....
...plus or minus the 'thereabouts'.
David Hobbs : ...and highly likely a gas pipeline to monetize the, between 40 & 50 trillion cuft of natural gas....
See Oct23 presentation at 2mins15secs in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ7DvA8gK9s#t=2m15s
The Kodiak residual Gas :
With the US mkt value of Natural gas currently about $3 per million BTU’s
And 1 million BTU’s ~= 964.32cu ft natural gas.
Then, with the NSAI 2C amount of residual gas for Kodiak being put at 4.47Trillion cu ft
The Residual Gas retail value =~ $3 x (4.47Trillion / 964.32)
= $13.9 Billion.
If, let's say, just 25% net profit on this and taking gas production and sales as linear over 20 years,
we can attribute todays value, at a 10% discount per year, going forwards [ ie a NPV10 over 20years]
by multiplying by a factor of 0.42567 [ or, so my speadsheet calculates] we then get a today’s value of
$13.9billion x 0.25 x 0.42567
I make that as = $1.47 Billion.
So, just the Kodiak Residual Gas, value today [ with ~919mil shares] could be worth about $1.60/share [£1.25/share] … if a commercial route to market is established! And if not - they dispose of it / store it (for later commercialization?), in injection wells.
IMHO DYOR
[someone like to verify that 0.42567 factor for NPV10 spread linearly over 20 years?]
...interesting 'follow my leader' RNS:
'Following Pantheon Resources Plc declaring a significant contingent resource for the Lower BFF, 88 Energy has appointed independent consultants NSAI to assess the BFF reservoir at Project Phoenix.'
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/88-energy-88E/share-news/88-Energy-Limited-PROJECT-PHOENIX-BFF-CONTINGEN/92393943
Https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos
lists PTAL as 274,632bbls for period 1 to 25 Oct23 = average of ~10,985bbls/day
[PTAL 218,189bbls for 1 to 26 sept23 av = ~8,391bbls/day]
And rain forecast to start filling those 'barge highways':
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=vn&CONT=samk&LAND=PR&ZEIT=202310290600
https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/maps/pucallpa_peru_6278761#coords=5.31/-6.811/-66.638&map=satellite~radar~none~none~none
Mow / mlf -
Think of it as the less deep the reservoir rock is buried the less weight it has experienced from the the layers of rock above it - and the less weight, the less compacted it is.
So, conversely, deeper burial gives greater compaction of the particles that make up the reservoir rock and means that the spaces or pores between the particles reduces, so providing less pore space for the oil to occupy ie. greater depth of burial = less porosity.
Also, increasing compaction tends to reduce the size of the pore throat - that is the connectivity from one pore space to an adjacent pore space ie. the pathway through the rock, that the oil takes on its way to the well bore - this is the rock's permiability.
As we travel North West from the Talitha well to the Theta West well and continue on North West into the recently aquired 'chimney' area, seismic shows the BFF reservoir depth of burial reduces and so we would expect the porosity and permiability to improve. The Talitha and Theta West wells have indeed shown this to be the case and so one would reasonably expect yet further reservoir improvement in the 'chimney' area.
I thought one of the highlights of the 19th’s webinar, was hearing Jay, at about 8m: 50s into the video, say that basically, the Best estimate [the 2C figure] of NSAI for the Kodiak BFF reservoir was almost 1 mil barrels, whereas Panr management considered the ~2mil barrels [the 3C figure] to be the more likely.
This due to the fact that NSAI was bound by the data from the Theta West and the Talitha A wells and could not estimate any improvement in the reservoir quality going into the Northwest, Kodiak ‘chimney area’, which management firmly believe will show improvement because of its lower depth of burial .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ7DvA8gK9s#t=8m37s
So, a lower depth of burial, which as we know, means better porosity and better permeability – thus pointing to better quality reservoir as it extends northwest from the Theta west well location.
And this was commented upon in the 14th Sept23 RNS:
“Pantheon's analysis of the regional trends in maximum depth of burial of the reservoir (Dmax) and its impact on porosity and permeability indicates the potential for significant improvement in reservoir quality some 5 miles northwest of Theta West-1. The Company expects, based on petrophysical analysis , a Kodiak appraisal well in that location to demonstrate even better reservoir qualities with 37 - 51% of the pay in the reservoir interval exhibiting porosities at or above 12% and permeabilities of greater than 0.1 milliDarcies - the typical cut-off for conventional reservoirs. This compares to 5% of conventional pay at Talitha-A and 24% at Theta West-1.”
Forecast for the Iquitos & Manaus areas looking promising for the coming week:
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=vn&CONT=samk&LAND=PR&ZEIT=202310220600
... they may have just past this season’s low.
AMAZON RIVER LEVELS REGARDING IQUITOS [about 127miles NE of Bretana as crow flies]
https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/histogramas_shna/archivos/Amazonas.pdf
LEVELS OF THE UCAYALI RIVER REGARDING PUCALLPA [about 215miles south-ish of Bretana as crow flies]
https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/histogramas_shna/archivos/Pucallpa.pdf
And rain currently forecast for whole area: Fri 29th & Sat 30th Sept23.
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=nw&CONT=samk&LAND=PR&ZEIT=202310010600