Member Info for Sailplane

ACE

Https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-148.65792,69.85083,-147.25167,70.08369/cameraSite/13/details/camera/11668/loop-full

Click on the south view. This generates a larger south view next to the clearday ref pic... note the horizon line on this - it cuts throu the red/white little triangle. Now Click on the larger sth view to get an even larger pic. Click on show camera loop. Click on play or step fwd/back buttons to play the camera loop's frames. Dubhe1 lines up on this camera one quarter of the picture frame's width in from the RHS. ie close to the 2nd orange airfield light in from the right. There is a orange dot at the 2 o'clock position to the airfield's orange light at that quarter fame position - it's quite small, but Dubhe is after all 26 miles away as the photo flies. The occasional white lights on the horizon are headlights on the Dalton Highway. When we had the Alk2 flare it lined up close to the rightmost orange airfield light. The camera loop showing at the moment shows poor visibility and so the flare dot on the current pics loop isn't visible - try in a few hours when the next pics are in the loop - does depend on clear weather, though, to see acress the 26miles.

RNS 2dec25 said, with regard to the Dubhe1 well: analog to this well is the SMD-B interval in Alkaid-2 which was flow tested in 2023 and first measured oil production when a water volume equivalent to approximately 50% of the injected water volume had been produced.

And the RNS from 19oct23, re the SMD-B at Alkaid2, said that, during the flow test, the oil rate ranged from 30bopd to more than 100bopd, with water cuts of 90% initially, declining over time as a larger share of the frac fluids was recovered. The recovery of the frac fluids reached approximately 60% during the flow test .

I think we can see, that combining these, it would indicate that the 30 to over 100bopd at the SMD-B at Alkaid2 must have occurred between the frac fluid recovery points of 50% and 60%.

And, as of the 2dec25, frac recovery at Dubhe1 was only ~40% recovered !

According to AI :

The perceived "hold up" in news of progress for Zephyr Energy (ZPHR) is likely due to the

complex and time-consuming nature of securing a development partner and finalizing commercial agreements for its Paradox project, rather than a lack of progress itself. The company is making steady operational progress, but investors are waiting on major commercial catalysts and timelines.

Key factors contributing to the timing of major updates include:

Partner Search and Data Room Process: Zephyr has opened a data room and is in negotiations with multiple potential partners to accelerate the drilling and development of the Paradox project. This negotiation and due diligence process with multiple parties is complex and takes significant time to conclude.

Finalizing Commercial Agreements: The company is working with pipeline owner Enbridge on commercial agreements, regulatory steps, and engineering required to bring existing wells into full production and secure gas export capacity...

Focus on Long-term Value: The company is focused on a long-term strategy, including expanding its asset value and ensuring the project can scale beneficially, which involves careful planning and execution rather than rushed announcements. 

Looking to Alkaid 2 for a sense of the timing and operational activities at Duhbe 1.

 

RNS:

26th September 2022

Operational Update, Alkaid #2 Well

 The Company is pleased to report that the completion and stimulation phase at Alkaid #2 has concluded, and a production packer has been set. Completion equipment is currently being demobilized and preparations are underway for flow testing. The Company will shortly commence commissioning its facilities which were recently increased in capacity in order to handle potential additional production.

A workover rig is estimated to arrive to location over the next week to ten days to install production tubing prior to commencing flow testing operations….

 

29 days later, came the next Alk2 RNS:

 

25 October 2022

Operational Update, Alkaid #2 Well

Production testing operations at Alkaid #2 have commenced with the well in the clean-up phase and showing positive early indications of oil production from the reservoir. During this clean-up phase, in addition to the fluid production, the strong flow back has yielded frac sand production higher than expected, which is not uncommon in similar completion procedures.

The Alkaid #2 well is being shut in as part of the planned procedure to transition from temporary flow back facilities to larger permanent facilities, and a coiled tubing unit will be used to clean out the wellbore. Additionally, Pantheon will undertake a pressure build-up operation by placing a pressure "bomb" in the production packer and allowing formation pressure to increase for several days. This will allow for analysis of multiple reservoir parameters and is a standard reservoir engineering analytical tool….

Https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-148.65792,69.85083,-147.25167,70.08369/cameraSite/13/details/camera/11668/loop-full

Click on the south view. This generates a larger south view next to the clearday ref pic... note the horizon line on this - it cuts throu the red/white little triangle.

Now Click on the larger sth view to get an even larger pic.

Click on show camera loop. Click on play or step fwd/back buttons to play the camera loop's frames.

Dubhe1 lines up on this camera one quarter of the picture frame's width in from the RHS. ie close to the 2nd orange airfield light in from the right.

There is a orange dot at the 2 o'clock position to the airfield's orange light at that quarter fame position - I noticed it very weakly there yesterday - today its a bit brighter - still very small, but Dubhe is after all 26 miles away.

The occasional white lights on the horizon are headlights on the Dalton Highway.

When we had the Alk2 flare it lined up close to the rightmost orange airfield light.

A clear pic is at 11/05/25 time 08:25 ... on the loop time 08:26z.

So, this could well be our flare !

...a 10% discounted cash flow of $157,873million, If we divide by 2,100mil shares = 75cents /share cash flow value.

If Zephyr farm out say 50% it leaves 37.5cents =~ 28.8p/share.

[someone like to double check that calculation that no decimal point slip has occured]

At the below link we can see that for these values Sproule used 1st September 2025 strip prices, giving an av. price

of US$62.50 per barrel of oil, with US$3.50 per MMBTU of gas.

https://mailchi.mp/turnerpope.com/zephyr-energy-plc-research-12884473?e=33a7559ff4

Looking at the Alkaid#2's RNS stream:

yes, they did advise:

on 18aug22: Horizontal Lateral Target Depth Reached

19days later

on 6sept22: The Nabors 105 rig, used to drill the Alkaid #2 well has been fully demobilised, and wireline and completion equipment is now on location where completion operations have commenced. The well will be perforated, stimulated and plugged off in sections, prior to the commencement of flow testing

20days after that:

on 26sept22: the completion and stimulation phase at Alkaid #2 has concluded, and a production packer has been set. Completion equipment is currently being demobilized and preparations are underway for flow testing.

On the webinar at time 29m 04s : 'What we're undertaking, as we speak, is running casing into that lateral'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aao3d_azycE&t=1744s

Sounds interesting - in the August 2025 EnerCom Presentation, now on the ZPHR website:

Under Reports and Presentations / Presentations:

See page 18

NEXT STEPS

Paradox

https://www.zephyrplc.com/

So Alkaid Took 20days to drill a lateral length of 5,300 ft, run a 5 ½ inch liner, cemented and tested for integrity.

Taken as linear progress, that works out at 265ft/day.

If we’re now going for a 3,500ft lateral at Dubhe, then pro rata that going to take about 13.2 days.

If we assume they started the lateral on Sun 24aug25 [With Erich saying on the video: I’m at the Dubhe pad now, where the rig is drilling the Dubhe1 horizontal lateral] – and he does say: is drilling – not: about to drill – then we might expect lateral TD on ~Sat 6 Sept25 or Sun 7th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHwet4dVIkI&t=150s

...some ~7 miles west of Duhbe 1, at the Talitha well, they highlighted the significantly large aerial extent of the SMD - and with the extensive size of its footprint they were talking about a development the size of ~400 wells, using 10,000 ft laterals.

I think that rather speaks of the huge size of this prize.

And Duhbe 1 - it's positioned right at the heart of the SMD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B3KWSG8WPs&t=3308s

- it was just to the south of the proposed Dubhe#1 location - made by 88e - they also flowed oil from this horizon: see their RNS 15apr24: "HICKORY-1 Flow Test - Second Light Oil Discovery".

"· Hickory-1 has now delivered two successful oil flows and three independent discoveries:

- SMD-B (today's result): with a peak flow rate of ~50 bopd of light oil (measuring approx. 39-degree API oil gravity, under nitrogen lift).

- Upper SFS (USFS) (previously announced on 2 April 2024): with a peak flow rate of over 70 bopd of light oil (measuring approx. 40-degree API oil gravity, under natural flow).

- Both flow rates result from low volume stimulations over small 20ft perforated intervals in vertical well."

Starts at time: 55m:06s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B3KWSG8WPs&t=3306s

Back then, potentially ~400 wells worth of excitement.

Yes, at time ~26m 50s on the webinar, Erich says: Right now we're planning on - in the process of moving the rig from the last slide [ rig was shown on previous slide], waiting for approval - which we expect to be imminent - to be able to spud the well.

If they intend to stick to their schedule, they’ll have spud the well before or during Tuesday the 15th.

So, could even be an RNS come Monday.

The Duhbe#1 gravel pad is well situated for a lateral drill into the shelf margin deltaic ("SMD") reservoir - or 'Ahpun western topsets', as it is now called.

Here's a you tube of eSeis Roger Young and PANR Bob Rosenthall discussing the SMD in April 2021, after data gathered from the Talitha-A well [sited just ~7.5 miles west of the forthcoming Dohbe#1 location]:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncgsjWsy0aA&t=3281s

should auto start at 54mins 40secs:

Gives us a plan view of the extensive aerial extent of the SMD.

Following Roger, Bob goes on to remind us: from the Kuparuk depths up to the SMD, they have 3,700feet of stacked hydrocarbons in the Talitha-A well.

Easy to forget the great finds PANR has made in their recent history. And if you want to hang on listening at 01:01:00 time, Jay, the former CEO comments: "This thing is huge. Ed [Ed Duncan - consultant geologist]said its the largest hydrocarbon pore volume maybe - outside of just the Prudhoe Bay field. When you talk about 5 stacked horizons - potentially productive zones - with the sort of aerial extent that we have shown you today, it is simply tremendous. There's nothing like it that I've ever seen".

And to give a sense of scale to those 3,700 feet of hydrocarbons: The Sky Bridge in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is located at a height of just 300 meters (approximately 984 feet) so, 3,700ft is like 3.7 stacked skybridge heights ! Here's a short clip of the skybridge:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZdo4PuAWYY&t=88s So 3.7 times that height of hydrocarbons - no wonder Jay said: There's nothing like it that I've ever seen.

15:35

the pad on satellite image looks to be complete - the 'race track' marks, indicating still spreading the gravel - they disappeared about 26 june.

https://browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu/?zoom=15&lat=69.8355&lng=-148.76437&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=U2FsdGVkX18BzB6PqttI5Fhto40vU%2F0foUNmlYQ5c2E46ppC6N1LkNJgOq%2BkP2a%2BEWxp6tubP66GI1e7yI0vVfT%2BJQEgSKBznZx%2FlkC44r0mgj7PZuskHEriXFi3NO1t&datasetId=S2_L2A_CDAS&fromTime=2025-07-06T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2025-07-06T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22&cloudCoverage=30&dateMode=SINGLE

Pantheon advised the Alaskan authorities, they intended the start of drilling between 1st - 15th July. And proposed end date for the pad was 30th June. See page 5:

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/526D477C5506454E9EFAA5DC0522872/2025-03-19_Application_LONS%2025-002.pdf

The Duhbe#1 gravel pad is well situated for a lateral drill into the shelf margin deltaic ("SMD") reservoir - or 'Ahpun western topsets', as it is now called.

So, what info do we have on the SMD.

Well, the SMD was situated just above the the Alkaid#2 well's 5,300ft lateral drilled into the then zone of interest: the 'Alkaid Anomaly'. This being quite close to the SMD it might give a degree of reference on which to base the possible outcome of Dubhe#1.

The Alkaid#2 frack efficiency on the lateral back then was only ~ 20% and the IP30 production flow rate was c.505 barrels per day ("BPD") of liquid hydrocarbons, along with c.2,300 mcfpd natural gas. ref:RNS:6th March, 2023.

Then came the recruitment of Tony Beilman, and an improved frack was demonstrated. This time, slightly higher up that same Alkaid#2 well, this time into the SMD-B layer - the improved technique achieved a much better ~50% frack efficiency, with oil flowing at 30 to 100+ bopd from the small frack made in a vertical section of the well - and despite being located on the very northern edge of this SMB reservoir's accumulation - where it begins to shale out - the RNS commented:

".. the actual flow rates were substantially better than prognosed, given the conservative approach to production in order to limit gas flashing in the reservoir.." ref:RNS:19 Oct 2023.

Analysis previously confirmed, at Alkaid#2, the SMD as Net 272 ft oil bearing reservoir ref:RNS: 29 July 2022.

So, the higher frack efficiency bodes well for a ~2.5x increase in the production rate in future wells compared with that seen at the Alkaid#2 horizontal well - and also, of course, a further 2x production rate improvement - if they drill a lateral twice that length. So, potentially 505bbls x 2.5 x 2 = 2,525bbls/day.

Also the SMD has a lesser depth of burial than the zone of interest targeted by the Alkaid#2 lateral, so that may also add a boost to production rates due to possible higher porosity and permiability .

There was also another appraisal of the SMD-B that flowed oil - just to the south of the proposed Dubhe#1 location, made by 88e - they also flowed oil from this horizon: see their RNS 15apr24: "HICKORY-1 Flow Test - Second Light Oil Discovery".

So, I believe all looking good for the forthcoming Dubhe#1 lateral apprasal well - drilling this time not at the shaling-out edge, but into the very heart of the shelf margin deltaic ("SMD") reservoir .

Relative well positions:

Alkaid#2 is ~9miles north of Duhbe#1 - SMD flowed oil in testing.

Hickory#1 is ~5miles south of Duhbe#1 - SMD flowed oil in testing.

As always DYOR

12:23

Not only do we know, via a photo on X and by satellite pictures, that they’ve been building the gravel pad for the near term drilling of Dubhe#1 –– but we can see by their UNIT PLAN OF OPERATIONS APPLICATION to https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/526D477C5506454E9EFAA5DC0522872/2025-03-19_Application_LONS%2025-002.pdf

that they intend to:

Move Rig to Dubhe Pad, Rig Up, and SPUD the Dubhe-1 well, between 1jly25 and 15 jly25

and

Dubhe-1 drilled between 15jly25 and 31 Aug 25.

Exactly !