The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
From the days when Malcy commented on PANR:
This from 9Apr2020 when PANR closing SP ~14.5p
"It is almost impossible to calculate how much this acreage could be worth to Pantheon, perhaps a 20 bagger, maybe 50 but that can only happen when the partner is found ..... "
https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/04/oil-price-chariot-igas-pantheon/
- scroll down the page a little -
"With one unique North Slope oil discovery already in hand, a small group of explorers claims to have found another prospect on par with one of the state’s largest oil fields that is worth developing even at near rock-bottom prices."
"It all adds up to projects that are viable at oil prices in the $30 per barrel range, according to Cheatham."
“We are economic really at prices that are so low that if any large projects get new funding we believe that ours would be right at the top of the list,” Cheatham said.
Anchorage Daily News April 9, 2020
New data and an old well add up to a major North Slope oil find, company says
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2020/04/09/new-data-and-an-old-well-add-up-to-a-major-north-slope-find-company-says/#:~:text=in%20new%20window)-,New%20data%20and%20an%20old%20well%20add%20up%20to%20a,Slope%20oil%20find%2C%20company%20says&text=With%20one%20unique%20North%20Slope,at%20near%20rock%2Dbottom%20prices.
I wonder how impactful might this be?
"The proposals, which the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, is expected to set out formally on a visit to Scotland next month, will involve not just a ban on new North Sea oil and gas licences, but a pledge that any borrowing for investment should be limited to green schemes."
Indeed, as you say, they need to get their skates on. A meandering jog - not what we need.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/28/labour-confirms-plans-to-block-all-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-projects
Yesterday's comment on oil, from Malcy:
"Another genuine rise in the oil price this time mainly down to inventory stats which showed a huge draw in crude of 12,456m barrels and with a refinery run rate of 91.7% yet gasoline stocks fell by over 2m b’s. This might be acceptable if it wasn’t for the fact that gasoline stocks are well below the 5 year average and the driving season starts on Monday on which the AAA has predicted 6% more road trips will be taken compared with last year…
Secondly the weekend after the Memorial Day holiday Opec meets, Sunday June 4th, and whilst they have not suggested they will cut production again, the influential Saudi Oil Minister has warned against being short crude oil…
Thirdly a number of commentators, recently led by the IEA but including myself, have said that due to significant lack of investment the ability of the oil market to cope with the potentially resurgent Chinese economy and joined by the firing on all cylinders Indian economy. And you may not be protected by natural gas, I would suggest that the demand from all areas as we head to northern hemisphere winter could make last year look very small for a number of reasons, not least the weather which has come to the rescue in the last 9 months but cannot be relied upon."
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/05/oil-price-pharos-hurricane-and-finally/
Pantheon Resources – Oversubscribed Raise
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/pantheon-resources-oversubscribed-raise-incoming/
Sounding more promising this time?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/warring-factions-sudan-agree-temporary-ceasefire-us-saudi-mediators-sa-rcna85440
Schlumberger Report
In a project spanning over 6 months, Schlumberger has completed a comprehensive reservoir model of Pantheon's 100% owned projects, estimating the reservoirs contain 17.8bn bbls net oil in place. Schlumberger's oil in place estimates for Theta West were constrained to the projects 3D footprint with more conservative reservoir parameters than Pantheon's at the lease boundaries.
In the next project phase, Schlumberger will work on recovery factors, and reservoir performance. Pantheon has estimated a 10% recovery factor in its own modelling. The Schlumberger Report outlined conclusions from a detailed reservoir modelling analysis commissioned by Pantheon and does not constitute a formal Independent Expert Report.
We expect to commission a separate Independent Expert Report in due course which will use the Schlumberger work.
The primary objective of the Schlumberger analysis is to provide a static and dynamic models for analysis and form a key component of the Company's data room, allowing potential farm-in partners to manipulate the modelled data to their needs.
From 30Dec2022 RNS.
Updated Corporate Presentation and Investor Webcast
PetroTal will host a virtual investor webcast meeting on May 15, 2023 beginning at 9:00am Central Time (3:00pm London time). See the link below to join the webcast. The Company has also provided an updated corporate presentation, with the Q1 2023 results, on its website.
https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/6436734e09685ed9886963e9
"It is the policy of the United States to support a transition to democracy and civilian transitional government in Sudan, to defend such a transitional government from those who would prevent its initial formation through violence and other methods, and, once formed, to protect it from those who would undermine it. "
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/05/04/executive-order-on-imposing-sanctions-on-certain-persons-destabilizing-sudan-and-undermining-the-goal-of-a-democratic-transition/
... that they drilled, just ~150mtrs to the south of our southern lease boundary:
From yesterday, the 88e RNS of 2nd May 2023 regarding their Hickory-1 well :
“-- Drilling of the Hickory-1 exploration well at Project Phoenix in 2023.
This is singularly the Company's most successful exploration well ever, including over 400 feet in net pay.
Up to four zones are planned to be flow tested during the upcoming Alaskan winter season (Q4 2023) and is a clear example of enhanced outcomes from our more technically-driven strategy.”
For 88e's: their most successful exploration well ever.
For PANR, thanks to a well data exchange agreement, in effect, it's a ‘Step-out Appraisal Well’ providing Pantheon with valuable data on the southern lease boundary at no cost - and allowing the incorporation of this data into subsurface modelling of the various horizons to obtain even greater confidence in the subsurface and discovered oil.
I do like those words: 'the Company's most successful exploration well ever' - nice ring to it.
A great show of PANR / 88e 'win - win' cooperation.
Yes, some interesting comments made about the Alkaid#2 well, after time 3h:32m:25s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EftjFGw9BGA#t=3h32m25s
Mentioning: gas oil ratio compared to Prudhoe Bay Field
and Alk#2's 1mile horizontal productivity compared to a Permian Well, today.
… that someone the calibre of David Hobbs joined the company in March of this year.
I also think, the last two specialties, mentioned below, do chime rather well with where we’re currently at.
LinkedIn
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/david-hobbs-4a4b338
David Hobbs
Energy strategy expert
Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. Until recently, Head of Research at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) and previously Chief Energy Strategist at IHS. He is an expert in energy industry structure and strategies. He previously managed IHS CERA’s research activities.
Adjunct professor at the University of Calgary and part of the faculty for the Global Energy Executive MBA programme. Formerly a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
Prior to joining IHS CERA, two decades of experience in the international exploration and production business directing oil and gas projects in Asia, South America, North America, and Europe.
BSc(Eng) in Petroleum Engineering from the Royal School of Mines, Imperial College.
Specialties: Energy Policy and Strategy, Public Speaking, Commercial Negotiation, Corporate Finance.
David Hobbs: "Having followed the Pantheon story for a number of years, I am excited to support the Company in refining its strategy to extract the maximum value from its established resource base for shareholders' benefit."
On the latest AGM webinar – slide 13, it says:
Objective: Oil Search paid US$3.10 / bbl Resources in Nov 2017
I guess we all recall that often quoted deal.
And taking the current exchange rate as £1 : US$1.24 then the $3.10 / bbl becomes £2.50 / bbl.
And using the management’s Resources figure of 2.3billion barrels recoverable, we get that the value - to equate to the Oil Search deal - should be 2.3bil x £2.50 = £5.75billion.
So, at a share price of 19p the number of shares in issue, to give a mkt cap of £5.75 billion,
should be £5.75billion / £0.19
= 30,263,157,890 ie. 30.263 billion shares in issue.
So, viewed along those lines, apparently, an SP of 19p gives us just a bit of headroom for dilution, then.
...we've not got 30 billion shares in issue, have we? [easy at times to miss an RNS]
All figures assuming, of course, my calculator is having a good day!
On 10th Nov 2022 88e was announced as the highest bidder on 10 leases covering approximately 25,600 contiguous acres immediately south of Prudhoe Bay.
On the same date, in a PANR RNS: “Pantheon is pleased to announce the successful acquisition of approximately 40,000 acres in the State of Alaska's North Slope Areawide Lease sale.”
Yesterday an 88e RNS: “…pleased to report that the Alaskan Department of Natural Resources (DNR), Oil and Gas Division, has completed its adjudication process and formally issued award notices to Captivate Energy Alaska, Inc. (a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company) covering the entire Project Leonis (the Project) lease area.”
So then, it could be soon, that PANR gets its completion and are able to add their successful Nov 2022 40,000 acre bid to their current ~ 153,000 acres.
That will give them a ~26% acreage increase and one would hope, a proportionate ~26% increase in the OIP figures
– well, they didn’t bid on it for the scenic views and with the 3d seismic they have, they should have had a pretty good idea as to what’s down there. And one would have hoped, that enabled some “cherry picking” of these 40,000 acres -
If so, that would take the Company resource estimates of 23 billion barrels of oil in place ("OIP") and 2.3 billion barrels of recoverable resource, to an OIP of ~28.98billion barrels with the possibility of the recoverable resource moving up to ~2.9billion barrels.
And that would mean, on the current ~788million shares, ~3.68 barrels recoverable per share.
And that’s all based on just a 10% oil recovery rate.
IMHO DYOR.
... drilled by 88e look promising:
Today's 88e presentation includes this, re their drilling of the SMD just to the south of our southern border:
"Shelf Margin Delta (SMD)
? Presence of hydrocarbons evidenced by fluorescence under ultraviolet light in cuttings; noted by
both RPS wellsite geologists and Schlumberger mudloggers
? “immediate and streaming” blue-white “cuts” observed when solvent was applied to cuttings and
core chips, suggesting there is good sample/reservoir permeability for future
hydrocarbon extraction
? Elevated C3-C5 mud gas readings, high resistivity signatures and crossover of neutron density
curves"
...taken from page 6:
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02655754.pdf
Just south of our southern acreage border – further results from the 88e Hickory 1 well:
From Today's 88e RNS:
"We are excited about the results to date from the Hickory-1 well, and particularly encouraged by the identification of multiple pay zones across the primary and secondary targets.
The results have confirmed or exceeded our pre-drill expectations with regard to the primary and secondary targets, and also identified the new Upper SFS reservoir,….
We look forward to updating shareholders with post well analysis results and our plans for the flow test of the Hickory-1 well, along with an updated assessment and classification of resources at Project Phoenix ."
Their primary targets for Hickory-1 are the 3 SMD reservoirs (SMD-C, B and A), with SFS and BFF reservoirs considered secondary targets. [from 88e 10Mar23 RNS]
at the Oil & Power conference 2022:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nu5dDNW6PUQ#t=3m03s
Jay: "...and for 2023 - it's what we have planned - what is on our 'To Do List' :
Test new Alkaid well
New Theta West well
New Talitha well and
Test the SMD at Alkaid ."
[That last one, I feel, could be initiated quite soon.]
And also, due soon, there is the Independant Expert Reports / CPR s for Theta West & for Alkaid, due from Netherland & Sewell.
See the March 2023 Webinar at time 41m:00s
http://www.pantheonresources.com/
Plus in the near future we should be getting the finalization of the allocation of the new 40,000 acres - that's an increase of ~26% from our current 153,000 acres - and then the resulting upgrade in the oil in place figures that that should bring. Will that be a proportionate ~26% upgrade?
Plus, come mid April, do we get the rig back, from our 88e neighbours, to start work on the SMD testing???
So, not aimless at all, from my pov.
IMHO
DYOR
I understand our neighbour 88e will be finished with the Drill Rig that we ‘ passed onto them’ about a month ago – so, what’s the chance the rig drops back into the Alkaid#2 pad and pulls out the production tubing, on its way back to Deadhorse?
Then we could get a coil tubing unit to do the work ready for the SMD flow testing in the Alkaid#2 vertical.