Member Info for Sailplane

Should be making an appearance:

RNS: 29Aug2024:

The Company is pleased to report that initial operations at the site of the proposed commitment well have commenced, including drilling pad preparation and fencing the perimeter of the site. In the coming weeks, a spudder drilling rig will be mobilised to the well location and a 30-inch hole will then be drilled to a depth of approximately 100 feet and 20-inch conductor casing will be set.

While activity on the pad has begun, the Company does not expect full drilling operations to commence until the first half of 2025...

A small section of the talk giving their expected timeline of the pipeline project - and for such a sizable project, they're not hanging around:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7ns5PH2W7E&t=2101s

Pipeline FID Dec 2025

Detailed planning & engineering then purchase orders issued 2026

Construction of pipeline 2027 & 2028

Gas flow, hoped for, end of 2028 to Fairbanks and definitly expected by 2029

LNG start 2026 and taking 4 to 5yrs to complete

LNG shipping 2031.

At project peak, expecting to involve ~5,000 workers.

So, looks like we are going to need the gas pedal to the metal, pretty soon.

So, the Alkaid#2 was drilled with a 5,300ft lateral into the zone of interest: the 'Alkaid Anomaly', situated below the shelf margin deltaic ("SMD") reservoir - or 'Ahpun western topsets', as it is now called. The frack efficiency was only ~ 20% in this lateral. The IP30 production rate was c.505 barrels per day ("BPD") of liquid hydrocarbons, along with c.2,300 mcfpd natural gas. RNS:6th March, 2023.

Then came the recruitment of Tony Beilman, and an improved frack was demonstrated. This time, slightly higher in this well, a small vertical frack in the SMD-B layer - the improved technique achieved a much better ~50% frack efficiency, with oil flowing at 30 to 100+ bopd - and this on the very northern edge of the SMD reservoir's accumulation, where it begins to shale out. The actual flow rates were substantially better than prognosed, given the conservative approach to production in order to limit 'gas flashing'. RNS:19 Oct 2023.

So, this bodes well for ~2.5x the production rate in future wells compared with that seen at the Alkaid#2 horizontal well - and also, of course, a further 2x production rate improvement - if they drill a lateral twice the length.

Also the SMD has a lesser depth of burial than the zone of interest targeted by the Alkaid#2 lateral, so should also boost production rates due to higher porosity and permiability .

There was also another appraisal of the SMD-B, just to the south of the proposed Dubhe#1 location, made by 88e - they also flowed oil from this horizon: see their RNS 15apr24: "HICKORY-1 Flow Test - Second Light Oil Discovery".

So, all looking good for the forthcoming Dubhe#1 apprasal well, drilling horizontally, this time not at the edge, but into the heart of the SMD.

IMHO DYOR

See schedule of operations page 5:

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/526D477C5506454E9EFAA5DC0522872/2025-03-19_Application_LONS%2025-002.pdf

This article, though :

https://forbes.pe/economia-y-finanzas/2025-05-06/refineria-de-talara-reanudara-su-actividad-este-viernes-tras-suspension-por-oleajes

it does say: ....that the company is in talks with PetroTal to resume shipping crude oil from Station 1 of the pipeline.

"We hope to close the agreement with PetroTal by the end of this month. It will be up to its board of directors to decide when they begin delivering an average of 15,000 barrels per day,"

So, I guess if that amount went through the pipeline, there'd be a lot less going to Manaus.

If PTAL do go ahead with moving much of their oil through the ONP pipeline, does anyone think we might see a bit of adverse reaction / protests from the barge fraternity.

We'd still need some barges to get the oil to the pipeline, so need to continue looking after their interests and keep them onside.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SR_DBIRyhqQ

For those unsure of how good the 36-2R well is - here's a Google AI overview:

Typical flow rates for US onshore tight horizontal oil and gas wells can vary, but a large portion of wells produce between 100 and 3,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d). Many wells have production rates between 15 and 100 BOE/d. Initial flow rates can be high, with some wells reaching 1,000 BOE/d or more. However, production tends to decline over time, with a well in the Bakken model starting at over 800 barrels per day and dropping to under 100 by the end of the second year. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Initial Flow Rates:

Some horizontal wells can have initial flow rates exceeding 1,000 barrels of oil per day (BO/d). 

Long-term Decline:

Over time, production rates generally decline. A well in the Bakken model, for example, drops from over 800 BO/d initially to under 100 BO/d by the end of the second year. 

Variety in Production:

A wide range of production rates are observed, with some wells producing between 15 and 100 BOE/d, and others between 100 and 3,200 BOE/d. 

Impact of Technology:

Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have significantly increased production rates compared to conventional wells. 

Reservoir Quality and Completion Techniques:

High-quality reservoirs and proper completion techniques are crucial for achieving high production rates. 

Key Takeaways:

Tight horizontal wells in the US can exhibit a wide range of flow rates, from relatively low to high. 

Production rates typically decline over time. 

Factors like reservoir quality and well completion techniques significantly influence well productivity

from a map of the megrez#1 well, it is inclined in a northeasterly direction, angled under the dalton highway and then under the west side of the sag river.

the sag river is braided and over a mile wide at this point.

so, how does the association of braided rivers and oil deposits 'stack up'?

here's google ai's 'thoughts' on the subject:

ai overview

yes, a large braided river can significantly influence the possibility of finding oil in the underlying strata. braided rivers, with their characteristic sediment deposition patterns, can create favorable reservoir conditions for oil accumulation. 

here's why:

sand and gravel deposits:

braided rivers primarily deposit medium to co****-grained sands and gravels, which can form excellent reservoirs for oil. 

favorable reservoir properties:

the rock properties in these areas are often excellent, with high oil recovery factors (often exceeding 50%). 

lateral extent:

braided river systems often have laterally extensive reservoirs that are interconnected with strong aquifers. 

channel and bar accumulation:

the braided river channel and channel bars are prime locations for hydrocarbon accumulation. 

… both the shallower formations: Prince Creek and the Sag, have apparently been oil bearing at Prudhoe Bay - according to Google AI:

Q: ai: has any oil been found in alaska's prince creek formation at prudhoe bay

AI Overview

Yes, oil has been found in Alaska's Prince Creek Formation at Prudhoe Bay. The Prudhoe Bay oil field, the largest in North America, was confirmed in 1968, and oil production began in 1977. The oil in Prudhoe Bay lies within porous rock formations, including the Prince Creek Formation, at depths ranging from 1,700 to 7,000 meters.

Q: ai: has any oil been found in alaska's Sagavanirktok Formation at prudhoe bay

AI Overview

Yes, the Sagavanirktok Formation at Prudhoe Bay has been a significant source of oil. The Prudhoe Bay oil field, discovered in 1968, is the largest oil field in North America and was found by drilling into the Sagavanirktok Formation.

The Sagavanirktok Formation is a key geological feature in the Prudhoe Bay area, and its oil-bearing potential was instrumental in the discovery and development of the Prudhoe Bay oil field. The Prudhoe Bay field is estimated to contain over 25 billion barrels of original oil in place, with more than 13 billion barrels potentially recoverable with current technology. The discovery of oil in the Sagavanirktok Formation at Prudhoe Bay fundamentally altered the state's economy and transformed the North Slope of Alaska into a major oil-producing region.

As always DYOR. GLA.

Re: 15:03 "The companies that are using the Schlumberger Fracture Equipment are ConocoPhillips Alaska, SANTOS and Hilcorp..."

Derived from AI: Hilcorp is currently actively engaged in oil and gas production on the Alaska North Slope, including operating the Prudhoe Bay field and potentially developing other areas, including the Yukon Flats. While the company is not explicitly named as directly using fracking equipment in the North Slope, it is involved in drilling and production activities that may involve hydraulic fracturing, depending on the specific geological formations being developed. 

Santos is currently developing the Pikka Phase 1 oil project on Alaska's North Slope. This project, which includes a single drill site, oil processing facility, and supporting infrastructure, is expected to produce 80,000 barrels of oil per day. While the provided search results don't explicitly mention the use of fracking equipment, the project involves drilling to extract oil, which can sometimes involve hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to increase oil flow. 

Currently, ConocoPhillips Alaska is actively developing multiple projects on the North Slope, including the Willow project, which is a major development requiring significant infrastructure and well development, including horizontal drilling and potentially some hydraulic fracturing. They also have ongoing activities at established sites like Kuparuk and Prudhoe Bay. The Nuna project, part of the Kuparuk River Unit, has also recently begun production. 

Willow Project: This large-scale project is expected to produce 180,000 barrels of oil per day at its peak and involves a significant number of wells (up to 200), some of which may utilize horizontal drilling and potentially hydraulic fracturing to extract oil from the subsurface. The project is expected to be operational in 2029, according to ConocoPhillips Alaska. 

Kuparuk River Unit (KRU): ConocoPhillips operates the Kuparuk River Unit, which includes the Nuna project. The Nuna project, which includes 29 development wells, has recently achieved first oil. This project utilizes horizontal well technology for development drilling. 

Other North Slope Activities: ConocoPhillips also has ongoing activities at Prudhoe Bay and other sites on the North Slope, which may also involve horizontal drilling and potentially hydraulic fracturing, though the specifics of these projects are less detailed in the search results. 

Sorry, should have read:

This is borne out by Google’s response to:

ai: drilling stacked reservoirs would the more permeable ones give more definitive test results that were easier to quantify

From the knowledge that the next 5 reservoirs to be tested have greater permeability than topset#1, I think the important positive we should take, is that with greater permeability comes greater confidence in the drill phase test results, as to the nature of the reservoir. My understanding is that greater permeability gives the tests ’more to work on’ and lifts the results further out of ambiguity and away from the ‘noise floor’.

This is borne out by Google’s response to:

drilling stacked reservoirs would the more permeable ones give more definitive test results that were easier to quantify

Yes, the characteristics of stacked oil reservoirs can often be independent of each other.

Just copy and paste the below line into Google for a slightly more detailed answer.

can stacked oil reservoirs all have their own independent characteristics

Over to You Roger:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ovjul6MySc&t=2168s

And if you checked the other presentations for today - they too had the same webinar not available message.

Jossa, in reply to your question:

‘On 25th March Max said testing was in progress "as we speak" and confirmed 10 days +/- testing per zone, and a testing timescale for all 6 zones of 12 weeks.’

So is this behind schedule,…

 

Indeed, on the 25th March Max did say, the testing was underway and as we know, they are going to flow test each of the 6 reservoir horizons for 10 days each with an interim of about 4 days to ‘move up hole’ to the next test.

But we also know that the first test [topset one] is on a tight reservoir and needs to be fracked before it can be flowed to surface – this, I guess, was the part of the flow testing procedure ,of topset#1, that was referred to by Max on the 25th Mar as: "and we're testing those as we speak - flow testing them".

So, to ‘split hairs’ on the 25th Mar they were fracking, or preparing to frack, which precedes the actual flowing of the well fluids - and this is borne out by words from Dave Nobbs, also on 25th Mar (towards the tail end of an RNS) with him saying: “We expect stimulation of the first test horizon will be complete over the next week and flow testing to begin thereafter."

So looks like: 25th Mar to 31st Mar for 7days fracking / stimulation.

then: 1st Apr to 10th Apr for 10 days of actual fluid flow testing.

And so, report on the flow test looking to be at the earliest Fri 11th - or if their typewrighter's a touch slow - maybe Mon 14th Apr 25 ?? .. So, I guess that either dates would still qualify as on schedule.

However, as I'm sure we all know, these operations have many 'moving parts' - any one of which can hit a snag which pushes out the finish line.

refs:

Max: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETfUzboWACo&t=612s

See last sentence in section: David Hobbs, Pantheon Executive Chairman, commented:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PANR/employee-share-ownership-plan-awards-for-2025-x81esn5lj3g4lxc.html

The website address line appears to have fragmented - just copy the whole address and paste into browser address line.

For those new to PANR there’s a camera.

This Deadhorse south pointing camera looks across the Deadhorse runway. The ‘clear-day visual reference’ shows: on the right to the far side of the runway are 2 small box-like objects. Above these are small just seeable pylon structures for slightly elevated lights. Just very fractionally above the right-most light (that appears when the sky is dark) was the flare position of PANR’s Alkaid#2 gas flare, so one might expect the Megrez#1, when it gets to flare gas, should show pretty close to that same position.

To toggle from / to the reference pic and the ‘recorded about an hour or two ago’ pics, from the same camera – hit the ‘toggle clearday’ button and to view the strip of recorded pics hit the > (play) button.

The white lights – at night - seen crossing from time to time horizontally must be vehicle lights on the Dalton Highway.

Have fun.

https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-148.68892,70.06761,-147.9858,70.18421/airport/SCC/details/camera/11668/loop-clear

Well who would want to present, let alone be excited to present to an investor's conference on 10th Apr if you had to say that the topset#1 flowtest came in below expectations?

And today's RNS does say:

Max Easley, CEO, commented: "We are excited to participate in these premier investor conferences, providing a platform to engage with investors and discuss Pantheon's latest operational milestones. - on April 10th.

And, from Max's comment on the 25th March, they started flowtesting topset#1 at least 10 days ago.

Max says, "...and we're testing those as we speak" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETfUzboWACo&t=611s

And as they have previously voiced that flow tests will be for 10 days for each of the reservoirs, I would imagine a results RNS as highly likely, tomorrow or next Monday.

DYOR