Member Info for Sailplane

Baxi, fine by me.

….it rather look like, this winter there may not be the need for any hurried ice road construction, nor the frantic need of a drill rig and early spud date for Talitha B.
Pkyb 14:52
[Recalling thier comments from 30Dec2022 RNS].
“Recently we have formulated plans to target the SMD through directional drilling from the existing Alkaid pad.
This offers several significant advantages over the proposed Talitha #B location to assess the same target, including
(i) the ability to drill year round, eliminating the requirement to complete works by close of the winter season,
(ii) drilling from the Alkaid #2 pad allows the possibility to undertake long term production testing on the SMD which would not be possible from a location drilled from an ice pad where testing is limited by the length of the winter season, and
(iii) rather than plugging and abandoning the well as is typical after a winter test well, we can complete it for production in a success case or, subject to relevant approvals, possibly convert it to a gas and water disposal well. This offers tremendous advantages, allowing wells on the pad, such as Alkaid #2 (and future wells), to produce year round….”

...valuable it’s going to be."

And thanks again to GeodesRock49 for this link - an interesting video clip on oil API Gravity:
https://kimray.com/training/types-crude-oil-heavy-vs-light-sweet-vs-sour-and-tan-count

A look at slide 10 of PANR’s jan2022 presentation shows the company estimated the NPV10 of just the Alkaid Deep resource [Alkaid 2‘s location] at a $70 oil price, is worth $833million - and worth $1,040 million at $80 oil.
Not bad for just 3.4% of their current recoverable resource.
I say current resource as we still have additions to be made to that 2.3billion barrels recoverable figure - including:
The greater depth of oil bearing rock found in the Alkaid 2 vertical drill [ compared to Alkaid 1].
The better than expected Alkaid 2 vertical well. “Initial analysis indicates significant improvements in reservoir quality which could potentially lead to a material upgrade of the current resource for all targeted horizons.” [29jly22 RNS]
And not forgetting the recent 40,000 acres acquisition to expand on the existing 153,000 acres – that’s a 26% increase in area – and I don’t think PANR acquired it for its scenic aesthetics, so we could be looking at about a 26% increase in the current 2.3billion barrels recoverable, just from that – and that would then be ~2.89billion barrels !!
I also don’t think the total reserves figure includes findings in:
the SFS [slope fan system] - results from Talitha A [21feb22 RNS].
or the Kuparuk.
Anyone know for sure about those last two?
IMHO DYOR

… barrels recoverable resource.
Talitha and Theta West have different hydrocarbon trapping systems and are a much larger resource.
[Taken from the 3Jan2023 RNS].
So, it does rather look a bit like 'the tail wagging the dog' - pricewise - at the moment.

Interesting slightly off topic - re Artificial Intelligence Chat GPT-3 using an on screen avatar image:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO2o00fVBPk#t=1m04s

Interesting slightly off topic - re Artificial Intelligence Chat GPT-3 using an on screen avatar image:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO2o00fVBPk#t=1m04s

Map showing location of Proposed 88e Hickory-1 drill location relative to PANR’s Talitha A and proposed Talitha B.
https://www.reddit.com/r/3CPG_PetroleumGeology/comments/104adnt/pantheon_resources_plc_aka_great_bear_pantheon_is/

Telemachus — Yesterday at 1:10 PM
"I would simply urge people to avoid panicking because they are discovering things they did not know that they did not know and assuming the worst."
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/102ww06/two_post_by_telemachus_worth_considering/

....that experienced O&G people have not panicked."
Another reassuring tweet - this one from Petroleum Geologist: Geodesrock49 :
https://twitter.com/GeodesRock49/status/1610378546958184448

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/AQSE/fenikso-FNK/share-news/Fenikso-Limited-Completion-of-Settlement-Arrangeme/89899897

From Scott & Tele
https://twitter.com/Scot126126

Recalling extracts of the Dec2021 RNS's:
7Dec2021 RNS

Use of proceeds
 The gross minimum proceeds of the Fundraise of $70 million are expected to be used as follows:
 Talitha $10.7m
Theta West $16.7m
Alkaid $23.2m
Contingency & corporate development*
$17.1m
Fundraise deal costs
$2.3m
 Minimum fundraise
[Total =] $70.0m
*Corporate development may include: development of additional production facilities at Alkaid, additional testing (if appropriate), preparation for the winter 2023 programme, Convertible Bonds financing (if appropriate), further technical work and general working capital.

8Dec2021 RNS
Jay Cheatham, CEO of Pantheon Resources, said:
 "Raising up to $96 million through a combination of equity and convertible debt is a fantastic result, and the fact that the equity raise was substantially oversubscribed is a great show of confidence in our projects by both existing and new shareholders.
This funding allows the Company to fully execute our 2022 programme to assess eight targets across three wells - four targets with the reentry of Talitha #A, and two targets each at Theta West and at our Alkaid 2H development well adjacent to the Dalton Highway and TAPS. On success, the Alkaid 2H well will be the first producer for Pantheon on the North Slope, a fantastic milestone.
In total we're targeting 17 billion barrels of oil in place and over 2.2 billion barrels of Recoverable Resource, according to our estimates.
Additionally, we now have sufficient funding for additional drilling, testing and completion, and we can evaluate the drilling of a second production well. Further, the funding potentially gives us flexibility into 2023 and strengthens our balance sheet ahead of future farm-out or financing negotiations."

DT 10:00
The - only 500bpd hydrocarbon liquids rate - is due to about 60% of the fluids flowing back at the moment being of fracking fluid
[“Importantly, it is estimated that the well is still less than 40% of the way through cleanup phase…”]
so, as it cleans up further and more and more of the frack fluid is recovered, the oil cut should increase significantly.
They are also ‘throttled back’ on the flow rate to avoid dislodging frack sand out of the rock fractures at this early stage where the rock may not yet have fully ‘relaxed back’ to trap some of the Fracking sand particles
[“…a conservative approach in flow testing of not 'pulling on the reservoir' too hard, allowing the natural healing of the fractures to minimise future sand flow”].
Also, they are estimating that they are only ‘seeing’ about 4000ft of the horizontal well due to coil tubing cleanout not reaching into the whole 5,300ft horizontal.
So, lots of room for this well to improve - noteably by:
Increasing oil to frack fluid ratio
Increasing oil by producing from the full 5,300ft lateral
Increasing [throttling up / de-restricting] the produced flow rate at the well head
As Jay says: “To have this level of production at this stage in the "clean up" phase of production testing remains positive.”
This is not investment advice – as always, please do your own research.

In an interview on 28Oct22, Michael Duncan said they hoped 2 to 3 wks for the frack-water, pre production cleanup:
see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sUjszlKUL0&t=196s
And if this Flowback clean up resumed around 8Dec22
[In the 8Dec2022 RNS: "The well is still early in the cleanup phase..." ] then 2 to 3wks would mean it should be substantially cleaned up by about 22 to 29Dec22.

Interesting line from RNS 20May 2019 re Alkaid#1 - anyone recall comment being made since this, regarding plans for pursuing production from Alkaid#1?
"Subsequent to the announcement of Alkaid as a discovery well following the successful production testing operations in the primary zone of interest (the "ZOI" or "Brookian formation"), the wellbore has been successfully suspended and freeze protected for future production purposes. Data analysis is ongoing. Interpretation to date suggests that the reservoir quality encountered in the ZOI is greatly superior to pre-drill estimates which should have positive implications for possible reserve and production potential at the Alkaid prospect.

Anyone seen any info on if they have yet started the Ice Road for Talitha B?
According to the 'UNIT PLAN OF OPERATIONS APPLICATION' that someone posted about a month ago,
the Prepack then construction of Ice Road and Ice Drillpad had start and finish dates as being: 12/15/2022 & 1/15/2023

https://cuencahighlife.com/calm-returning-to-peru-but-some-tourists-are-still-stranded-congress-votes-for-early-elections/

... estimated mid December:
"Commenced drilling well 12H. On October 16, 2022, the Company commenced drilling well 12H with a budgeted cost of $14 million and estimated completion in mid December 2022." [from 17Nov2022 RNS]

And with 18,000bopd production expected since the successful discusions lifted the river blockade on 14Dec2022 [from RNS 15Dec2022]
- I think things are starting to look up. And Malcy is quite positive, too: on the 15th he wrote: "The shares are up some 10% as 41p but I havent changed my L/T share price target of 150p there is still a huge amount of upside."
https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/12/oil-price-petrotal-kistos-hunting-getech-and-finally/

So, in the 8Dec22 RNS, what do you read into it when Bob says,” I believe our current estimate of 10% has the potential to be conservative based on what we are seeing at the moment…” What, exactly, do you think it is they’re 'seeing at the moment'? What would elicit such a comment: 10% [recovery] has the potential to be conservative.
Could it maybe be allied to the 25Oct22 RNS, where Jay added: "It is encouraging that the reservoir response to the stimulation procedure has been very good, as we have experienced strong initial fluid flows measured in the thousands of barrels per day.”
Could it perhaps tie in with Jay’s positive comment: “Upgrading our facilities to a larger capacity was a sensible decision, giving the Company the flexibility and freedom to bring multiple wells into production at the Alkaid #2 location in due course.” from the 6Sept22 RNS.
Or even link way back to encompass the 18Aug22 RNS comment on the Alkaid#2 well: “Analysis of the logging while drilling (LWD) and gas chromatograph readings indicate that the improved reservoir parameters encountered in the vertical pilot hole have continued or improved in the horizontal well bore.”
Do all of these, maybe, combine with the 'seen at the moment', flowback performance - and highlight their 10% estimate as truely having the potential to be conservative? And if so.......
Bob, to what degree are we likely to be talking?
Might that be a bit of a smile, or a canyon-wide grin?
DYOR