Member Info for sageofclapham

Outlining price, outlining board view of that price, I could go on, this is a totally false market, one of the bastions of the Panel which seems to be being ignored, buyers / sellers are blind as to the facts, some buyers probably not blind, go back to your short position and start worrying about that.

One rule for wood group - one rule for THG - the inconsistency is appalling

The board could tell us if they wanted to

A price from Apollo will have been tabled - the board need to tell its shareholders and the market - otherwise we get a totally false market

There will be 50 people know the number - unfair

The panel are not doing their job looking after the wider market

It is totally wrong some seem to know of a number and others don’t - I don’t know exactly what a false market is but this feels like it

They can’t not - Wood Group did - why do we not get same rules ? Unfair anyone selling this now at 75p if the approach is 150p as indicated

150p could just be the starter price - city spy seems to
Have highlighted this on Twitter ?

Is the 150p still in the video clip

Like wood group no idea why not confirmed or denied this am

Super subtle, it comes and goes very quickly

3 approaches to Wood they said pre the first market confirmation news in Feb - the 230p approach they said in Feb was sent to the board in late Jan when the Wood price was 140p ish. The final approach in early April is 240p being 70%+ premium, on a business no where near as undervalued as THG as a starting point. Point being it’s a pretty decent premium. The Wood board doesn’t appear overly welcoming but that is speculation on my part, or rather they don’t appear to need to leave the market

I wonder how welcome a multi bn PE fund is being made by the THG board?!….

They will need to pay a price to persuade the non core holders to sell…. Despite today’s price move that must remain 150p + in my opinion

I would expect regardless other PE bees around the honey pot as the Apollo bid is ‘highly prelimary’ (or so they say!) as well as beauty companies and the global food and drinks mob …

Todays results were reassuring I thought

Maybe some don’t believe the £120m ebitda consensus - they should do as £150m and £160m delivered before and this year should be £200m …

Don’t watch the price just sit and wait for the first proper bid on the screen …

Very reassuring all round - nice debt lower than guidance

They reiterate £120m ebitda = consensus - 10x for this stock ?!! - totally absurd - this will end up being a bargain for Apollo at min 150p, hopefully a lot more

Up on the day I will confidentially predict

A great day to all - wasn’t expecting that left field !! Take a moment tonight all

Any business good enough for Apollo to be even looking at … is a top top quality global business

More to come

After a very tough year for UK market

US money coming back to UK …
VIX 12 month lows !! (Important)
Global markets recovering generally
Interest rates peaked, inflation tamed at least
PE houses with billions raised - ‘use them or lose them’
Has THG actually ALWAYS been one of the best stocks in UK
50m disclosed short ? 5 million total a day traded ..
Index and PRE index buyers in wings
Sparta waiting in wings
Other global funds begin to buy ..
Ocado same revenue at £2.3bn BUT £4.2bn market cap ..
THG still less than 10% of peak price of 800p, someone must have thought a good story once upon a time

Shorts need to form an orderly queue …

Mr Golden you are def glass half full but a view to be respected …

I would add … nutrition distribution has grown year on year quite a lot - much more offline etc so am expecting small natural up Q1. Beauty is mixed I am expecting small down but improved margin (which we won’t see yet) and ingenuity I think is strong behind the scenes and they will announce US opening tomorrow with fanfare and maybe a contract alongside .. so yes revenue NOT runaway but the market has changed as to what it wants - it wants cash flow and profit - £130m cost out generally over last 12 months, loss making divisions cut out, and smaller beauty customers we know have been chopped where not big enough profit on the portals. As someone posted what if they said £50m + cash flow this year ?..

Importantly, Year end guidance say £110m ebitda should at least be in tact with outlook on whey and transport its underwritten - the question is then how much will the upgrades be over the year.. as I said last night - if £200m ebitda is a possible … then that is three or four ‘we are pleased to announce we are above expectations’ hence I think we can both be right here …

We don’t need black swans for big upside … black swans are straight to 200p + mind … but there are SO SO many strategic options for the business and positive stuff to announce. Even an Autostore little investment in ingenuity to show willing … who knows but the list is very long and any could get us straight to £1… and MM appears extremely confident … (surely we will agree on that?) he also said in one of the last posts that the ingenuity pipeline ‘continues to build’ … they have done the really hard bit on nutrition building a global digital brand - they now need to get into those supermarkets globally which they appear to be doing

I also agree nutrition is getting more competitive - hence more innovation needed and more tie ups in my view and more investment etc

To repeat - respect your view BUT what about the value ? £900m mkt cap for £200m ebitda and going north … ! Min 200p ultimately and a nice ride for 2023 - a business with £2.5bn + invested capital ..

1. Mat Moulding on the front foot (multiple times) re LinkedIn posts ! If bad news coming then I would expect silence. We are getting the total opposite.
2. Other non exec Ian Macdonald posting ‘what a great business’ and the ‘future is super exciting’ essentially, only two weeks ago post a board meeting - on LinkedIn … the previous buyer via belerion and a market pro - you don’t leave a board meeting with excitement when there is a problem looming … indeed the opposite. Also commented on MM’s post just Friday that ‘lots of growth to come’ …with 2 days to go .. ?
3. Transport costs AND Whey down last week AGAIN ! Opposite to last year - 150m and 160m ebitda two years previous .. actually £70m last year was ok considering … back to £180m + ebitda this year (?) - last years fundamental problems reversing - £200m ebitda 2023 not impossible .. on £900m mkt cap ?!…
4. Market recovering and the start of a UK M&A frenzy - two multi billion bids last week - BIG PE money they MUST spend or return to their investors - what would you do ?
5. We see MM at the offline fair on Friday on LI concluding with ‘potential more signings’ , previous distribution deals in Italy and Germany as posted on this sight and LinkedIn - also this board posted re Kraft Heinz where Ingenuity looks v active Inc Ed Sheerans new super hot sauce product
6. Ability Tuesday to talk re US warehouse brand new opening … nice timing - done deal slam dunk
7. Iceland going gang busters … bringing new punters to Iceland a £
8. New cfo you would think is supercharged to make a difference …having hopefully kitchen sinked it LAST YEAR not this year 2023 ! 2023 is the beneficiary of the 2022 kitchen sink ! That’s been done - everything chucked in the ‘disposal exceptional’ pot to leave the core looking good this year
9. Core ebitda 2022 expectation £100m, hoping a lot more this year given whey and transport
10. Forget 65p, 80p, 50p it’s irrelevant - is it 150p ? 250p ? 125p while we wait ? 300p+ fundamentally. All those analysts who went negative right at the wrong time … will have to reverse their PT’s !! A short panic
Best global digital nutrition brand in the world … quite an asset in a massive growth sector. Ingenuity … in the process of being proven yes BUT clients ? Coke direct to your home, ditto Kraft Heinz, Mondelez, Nestle, General Mills, Unilever, Proctor Gamble .. I always need reminding of others - not companies that care about their brand !!.. … Beauty - yes maybe needs some work, they have been quiet on this but… £1.2bn of revenue through top portals and brands .. Rightmove a portal ?.. last time I looked 15x revenue … (not that THG is remotely close) but let’s call it £500m of value only …

Anyone worried ??!! Apart from the shorts trying to close a truck load of short … when only 5m trades a day …

Most important is the market is recovering … 100p end of the week I predict.

Got back in the stock last week - missed 10p upside but 100p+ on a plate