RE: Chill27 Aug 2023 12:05
There is miles more upside in upgrades than an mbo - miles ! I wish everyone would forget mbo - we want management focussed on upgrades when the price can rocket
The only reason profit was hit so hard last year was whey doubling (the companies biggest input price) AND transport costs rising - both totally out of managements control ..!!
On those two points ebitda came back from £150m then £160m to £80m or whatever they were - £100m ongoing ebitda of core they said but it was down
However in that period the company rightsized its business quietly but quite agressively 10,000 to 7,500 heads being £100m ++ cost out - actually £130m. Longer term last year could have been a blessing in disguise albeit a painful one for holders
The card are now all with management .. and they have aces
Ebitda consensus is now £120m for 2023. Whey is down by well over half. Transport costs are well down. Repeat £100m + cost out. Do that maths.
Hence the idea of ebitda not being higher than £150m or £160m THIS YEAR is literally impossible !!
I am sure the company won’t release the first 10% upgrade until they KNOW the year is safe - this year there will hopefully be no delivery problems / Royal Mail. The chairman will be saying no upgrades until 110% in the bag.
H1 ebitda was £50m v £30m previous year so up 80% year on year - that narrative alone will read well in interims on two weeks - as announced already when the whey benefit was not yet being really used.
Hence even if beauty and ingenuity is flat profits year on year - upgrades and hopefully a well managed cycle of upgrades is around the corner
Patience required and buy more on weakness
150p easy by end of year
Throw in any kind of commercial tie up = 200p +
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