Member Info for sageofclapham

Correct - until they reprice upwards …

Post interims in September

Did everyone see Whey down another 3% last week !

Massive margin enhancement - painful downgrades as whey rose in 2022 …indeed four of them … as whey falls (€1500 peak back to €540 a tonne) …. Place your bets

Analysts will be reviewing then ..

Confirmed

Not seen yet but looking for it ! Will confirm once found

You know the relative numbers now ..

Wrong price - whilst I like Ocado …

Big upside - steady drift back up now until the pop to 200p +

Very good OSG

We know mid September interims will be strong led by MP when the company should in theory push the positives hard - whey appreciation led to big share price falls - the opposite is about to happen - role on mid Sept

Mr Boom

You may be right but I think know what should happen…. Don’t forget Ocado is now £5.7bn mkt cap on the same revenue as us at just over £2bn and less ebitda current year (to repeat earlier posts I am sure there ebitda goes higher but so does ours) - this year £35m Ocado ebitda and £120m THG .. and I can put a case for us having a better business model but splitting hairs - I like Ocado. The gap is too big £5.7bn v £1.25bn. . The gap will close as we get upgrades this year in MP and the company hopefully explore their strategic options and get a global name invested - that is what we need. Ocado have control of their register we do not yet and are still susceptible to short attacks - as we had Friday - see my previous posts. That’s fine, that’s the market. I am not saying ban shorting - we just need to create more buyers who want the uplift we will get as the true value corrects itself. That could be a slow grind - with periods of consolidation of course to your point, OR it could be one day they have done an amazing MP deal at say £2.5bn value and we get the ‘pop’, indeed a very big pop. if we believe Kelso in theory there are many big global co’s that want in to this asset (in theory and I hope Kelso is right).

However let’s not forget the idea of an ingenuity contract coming in - imagine if we had landed that previous whale that was almost there - imagine if they came back - I only hope BUT we are told the pipeline is the best ever - however we need to see it in black and white and H1 didn’t exactly have the door blown away. However I believe in the ingenuity model and that the contracts will come.

Management need to deliver - 1. Forecasts or get us a beat ! 2. An ingenuity decent contract or two 3. Most importantly a new proper buyer of the stock - no declared new buyers all year over 3% ! (I think I am write saying that?) so lets get that buyer - middles east ? A US tech investor on the back of Nasdaq ? An entrepreneurial HNW - I don’t care - but one over 3% declaration would be nice

The clear value is MP - all now for 0.6 sales for a fast growing digital global brand - a strategic global partner getting involved would supercharge our growth

Good luck all ! We will get there - mid September interims is the key date

We are still up 100% year to date - let’s not get too down and let’s remember management are driving this value back up

Very well said Bonkers

Agreed Chesire lad

Everything is ok - we have a great business and despite a decent rise in last 6 weeks still cheap. We got hit today and hits don’t last when a stock is on its uppers

Everyone has their views, this is mine which I hope at least reassures investors

The Rns was straight down the middle. All fine. I would have liked comments re Frasers / Ingenuity to be in the text not in the comment but I am splitting hairs. It was fine and I was pleased to see loss making divisions sold with contracts ongoing. Tick.

Mats LI post was very good and gave nice colour on the bones. He made some punchy comments re sum of parts. He didn’t need to knock LSE but he does and always will - that bit did not hit the stock. The post was additive and as someone said if the stock had gone up he would have been a hero as he has been for 6 weeks at least.

So what happened…

Interested in posters thoughts on this…

The stock performance has been excellent as value is being rebuilt. A good close last night at 107p post several days over 100p and we opened 108/110p. The stock was about to seriously go through 110p. If it held 110p + it would have gone 115/117p plus and 100p would have seemed a lifetime ago. Hence probably Qube or a big hedgey who is already short decided to take action on a quiet Friday. Someone recently posted re Qube’s profits and losses and they clearly have decent fire power beyond the 10m shares ish they are short. It could have been someone else BUT you would only do the following if you were already decently short. They stepped in and gave the stock a good spanking. This is NOT how anyone reduces their position if you are a holder whether private punter, institition OR even a black box acting normally. You don’t spank it lower and lower, you sit and wait - all especially on a nice Rns day with no negatives. Turns out their fire power maybe with others was bigger than the quiet Friday average buyers. The strategy succeeded, temporarily. I believe very few punters were stopped out today. Some must have been clearly or just took fright. This point was def helped by the IG margin change this week which actually is helpful to the quality of the register lowering the gearing level in the THG register. I think 8m or so traded so they clearly spooked some holders out. They would have sold a chunk to get it down and maybe then bought back 10p or more lower during day later. Either way their holding is in better shape than it was and they stopped momentum and it going 115p. To repeat todays action was not normal. It was more than any holder reducing. Holders have had several days now over 100p to take profits. I am quite sure Monday we will see the increased short notice by someone.

Any sensible contra views welcome. To repeat I am not saying it was Qube but someone like them or a few together.

Either way, empty out the piggy banks and put the grand kids Isa’s in !! This is huge buying opp.

GLA

Guys this is rubbish posting - sold all asos … !!! Come on

It would be so much better if posters kept posts to value add rather than I sold this and that etc

We miss the good stuff as it gets lost within the cr ap

Don’t mean to be rude to anyone but just hold back if you can

There is massive value add on this board - let’s not lose it

Bob - with greatest respect relax, we have had a very good rally last 6 weeks and we are 3% down - we are fundamentally undervalued and the rally will continue but it can’t even day

It is a chance to top up

I can’t copy and send but nice narrative including comments re sum of parts value ! Mat is clearly on the front foot

Great spot re that Frasers / ingenuity from the Rns - I missed it first read ..!!

I saw the Ocado £1bn mkt cap gain yesterday +20% to £5.4bn mkt cap but I missed the Darktrace + 27% movement to £2.6bn - adding £500m to its market cap. Yesterdays gain of Ocado and Darktrace combined was decently more than the market cap of THG.

Key point is continue to expect one off big movements in our jump to 200p + and the price returns to where it should be.

By way of reminder as no harm repeating - Ocado had the same revenue as THG being just over £2bn, it expects ebitda current year £35m (of course that should grow over 5 years) versus THG expected ebitda of £120m (which I think will be beaten due to the whey fall etc) - Ocado mkt cap £5.4bn - THG market cap is £1.4bn ! Wrong way around ? I expect US

Tech investors to start to looking at THG again soon. ingenuity is not yet an Ocado. However the principles are the same and we already have some choice D2C customers such as Coke, Nestle, Mondelez, Unilever, Kraft Heinz etc to name a few. Ingenuity is just a few years behind. Given the pipeline strength (we are told) of ingenuity, a new decent named contract would go a long way !

I will also keeping banging on about another new ish consumer brand; Fevertree - revenue this year £400m and ebitda £40m expected - mkt cap £1.4bn. That would make MP worth £2.3bn alone ! Fevertree is a great company and I am sure the price is fair. I am not knocking the business. Like MP at some point Fevertree will be bought by a major and the new buyer of both will double their sales in 12 months as Diageo or whoever buys it sticks it globally through their own distribution pipe. The same will happen with MP

Good luck all

Fill your flip flops !

THG price rise has a long way to go - we will get our 20%+ Ocado lifts at 120p say to 144p … then 160p to 196p … we will look back and won’t believe how low the price got

We will hit 200p remarkably quickly now - the register is actually built on strong foundations but good trading massively helps

Throw in even a medium sized Ingenuity deal … we will race there

Sam69 - I would imagine most people sorted themselves out last week re the extra margin - no one will be leaving it until the 11th hour today

But for that creating quite a lot of forced sellers out of the blue last week we would have been through 100p last week

Let’s not forget; totally new momentum buyers OR new value buyers coming onto the register - it is not just short closing

Ironically thg is an increasingly large part of the Numis mid cap index which many small / mid fund managers are benchmarked against. Not holding THG will have been expensive for non holders.

Agreed Binky

No idea how shorters close 20m shares +

Not my style to say such things but .. am waiting for the POP today !

Reckon we close 105p today

All these stocks are more on the radar of big funds than ever - in the same way the big tech stocks in the US have driven growth and stock market performance - our few big tech stocks will do the same - the very big profits from the narrow base of US big tech will spread out to other global tech winners

They are must holds for where they will be in 5-10 years - incessant growth driven by specially gifted management

Sorry make that £5.34bn Ocado

Since posting it gained £340m ! = 25% of our market cap !