focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Sunday Times today in the business section has the great Lord proposed as ‘NED of the year’ for his efforts for THG ! I can’t copy the article but it is out today perhaps someone else can - ‘Shortlist revealed..’ is the title - business section Sunday Times. I did have to check the title of his award …. I cannot think what the criteria is for such an award .. am sure we will all be voting …
This is really helpful thx Cratfy investor
Dr Lao … Moulding is almost certainly already paying him !! Not company sponsored or anything ..! That’s a good thing as it means they are serious
Maybe even Kelso are giving up with Mr Mouldings inability to listen - don’t blame them
Sorry what did Oliver Cookson say ? I missed it
Reading now - sorry don’t know how to paste content
That is Qube pushing it down to then pick up stock lower down - problem is there wasn’t any stock to pick up
They are still 7m short with 4 trading days to go
They will def be closing that ahead of the results
Guys and gals
It’s a sh it US market, we have v thin vols - we just need to su ck it up and be patient - painful but that is the realisty
We have something many many big co’s want at massively higher multiples - we need to dangle that carrot
Hang tough !!
Just googled news on STJ - fairly easy to find is a comment from post the last results from Numis analyst which says ‘the fee change maybe just the top of the ice berg’ - being the revised charges going forward - def more credibility than my view
Global domination !!…
There was def a buyer late pm today
6 trading days left ..
Re 44-47 - the recovery will be based on all metrics being constantly beaten for several announcement dates - including interims
Correct, anyone who has done the numbers of whey input and cost out etc knows 44-47 is wrong and £120m FY is wrong. I am talking real numbers without provisions / profits tucked away which is all we will see H1
They should be decently be above all those numbers
The Good Lord will ensure that until the year is nailed and in the bag we won’t get the bigger uplift - but small beats in the interim until they are ready for the big one - Jan 17 ‘24
All in my humble opinion. I won’t repeat the numbers. I have said them many times. I expect ebitda £150/160m current year maybe more
They need to do three things - beat numbers, beat numbers and beat numbers - simple. Interesting Jan 17th year end update has been in the IR public calendar for some time ..!
Mats front footed rhetoric is telling you something … he is relaxed
Patience
Although the FT piece at the weekend is pretty damning - it is the hundreds of comments within the FT about the piece and their views on this company which are worse and give the issue even more credence
My estimate is we slip to 400p. 20% profit cut and the balance a reduced rating as the issues play out
Hope this is a board that accepts two way views….
Just kicked off my holding with a sell
I have followed this stock a while, in an era of zero interest rates using an STJ to come up with some clever structurings might have had a place in life even if an investor could stomach the fees BUT in a world where a cash investor can get 5% min falling off a log STJ’s raison d’etre is far reduced.
Throw in a proper stewards (at last!) about their clever charging structures … newish blood for the journos who won’t give up now on the subject
I am not into general shorting but where it is companies like STJ then it is game on who have charged many many grannies the wrong fees for many years it is fair game. This is one of those straight to the bottom line profit reductions when revenue drops …
Throw in some shocking fund performances … the current rating could soon look extremely expensive and the viscous circle will begin compounded by trackers reducing as the market cap shrinks
Role on Oct 18 next news
Hopefully that and a bit more !!
I just hope they tell us all about the breadth of the new MP products and the seriously widened routes to market with all the new retail relationships
Including today 8 trading days left
Agreed !
Reckon today was the last day sub 100p post nasdaq finishing well
We should get the interims date soon which will sound the starting gun for a rally - hoping Sept 15th ish - earlier that week would be even better - no drama if early the week after
The end of year trading statement is already set for Jan 17th in the financial calendar - that is when we hope to get the proper upgrade / beat and 150p + .. no parcel delivery delays this year unlike last year hopefully which is why best for them to wait till then with the bigger news
Probably no more than 25/ 30m shares to trade pre the interims pop 🤞
Very exciting with the explosion of new products that must be driven by demand
At 90p we are around £1.15bn mkt cap I think
Ebitda current year £120m going to £160m next year - I believe ebitda current year will end up being north of £150m… we will get a better flavour in two weeks …
On any metric that should be £2bn
Still on 0.5x to sales ratio which is bonkers
On any metric sit tight and wait for mid Sept ..
Agree Mr Ephemerel - let the numbers do the talking - beat beat beat - £50m ebitda out of £120m H1 when the big benefit is in H2 care of whey and cost savings - min £150m full year - line in the sand - more next year
There is miles more upside in upgrades than an mbo - miles ! I wish everyone would forget mbo - we want management focussed on upgrades when the price can rocket
The only reason profit was hit so hard last year was whey doubling (the companies biggest input price) AND transport costs rising - both totally out of managements control ..!!
On those two points ebitda came back from £150m then £160m to £80m or whatever they were - £100m ongoing ebitda of core they said but it was down
However in that period the company rightsized its business quietly but quite agressively 10,000 to 7,500 heads being £100m ++ cost out - actually £130m. Longer term last year could have been a blessing in disguise albeit a painful one for holders
The card are now all with management .. and they have aces
Ebitda consensus is now £120m for 2023. Whey is down by well over half. Transport costs are well down. Repeat £100m + cost out. Do that maths.
Hence the idea of ebitda not being higher than £150m or £160m THIS YEAR is literally impossible !!
I am sure the company won’t release the first 10% upgrade until they KNOW the year is safe - this year there will hopefully be no delivery problems / Royal Mail. The chairman will be saying no upgrades until 110% in the bag.
H1 ebitda was £50m v £30m previous year so up 80% year on year - that narrative alone will read well in interims on two weeks - as announced already when the whey benefit was not yet being really used.
Hence even if beauty and ingenuity is flat profits year on year - upgrades and hopefully a well managed cycle of upgrades is around the corner
Patience required and buy more on weakness
150p easy by end of year
Throw in any kind of commercial tie up = 200p +
Hi all - someone used to keep this just showing the brands that ingenuity act for including the owners - has anyone still got an updated version - nestle had many sub brands etc
Thanks in advance