Member Info for sageofclapham

Agree but the upside from the PE multiple on the interest saving will be vastly more than the cash cost of the refi.

Good trading aside (which I think one can take as read as the silver pound spend all that cash), THE big change for Saga due this year is the refi .. my hope is that they move to a high street or close to high street lender away from the expensive current debt .. this will be a game changer cash flow wise. Don’t forget they are not refinancing all the debt, but rather just the non cruise loans… this should be very possible. This refi will take several % off the cost of borrowing and will itself help the PBT exceed £100m as and when. Latest guidance was for August (I believe) but maybe they will announce earlier. Such a refinance will set saga up for the £10+ move and then beyond.

I say 180p ….

Anyone else wanna have a stab ?

Likely our last week of owning Escode … the detail of the buy back announced soon … finally we will have a pure play cyber company … at the wrong price. The disposal should allow a near back to back decent upgrade to earnings ..

160p can then migrate to 200p + as more info comes out about how brilliant our cyber business is. What we really want is to be part of the AI movement and ‘in the room’ with them .. then the shares get properly spicey !! Fingers crossed.

Well said - correct numbers

This is wrong price, hedgies will try and hold down and make market believe this is a nothing statement … but it isn’t !

Let’s see where this stock is in 3 or 4 days …

150p min min min

Hoping we get some detail very soon of what level the big company buy back / return of funds will be soon alongside completion of Escode

I have to say I am very respectful of the balls of the hedgies still 9.2% short !

Higher the better !

Escode completion shortly will leave us £350m mkt cap with £220m probably of net cash … and a world class Cyber Consulting business .. which has to be very busy - exciting times ..

See FT piece on Avis today - about the Avis short squeeze - it says if ever shorts are more than 15% there is a problem and this can happen … NCC post buy back post Escode completing … is going to 20% short !! It will be obvious when it happens but hedgies are kicking an inevitable can down the road - there are other technical reasons too why we get the squeeze such as structure of the buy back … either way … NCC is going up

Until 9.25% shorts double to 18%+ on a company half the size !!

Black boxes won’t allow that ..

Let’s see how this unfolds … Follow the Avis story …

So we get a B share offer for say £180m buy back as Escode funds are part returned but keeping decent cash in the bank. The downside for holders of the B share is that we don’t get to choose to roll and not tender our shares but the positive side is £180m of shares are bought back in one go which will leave us 130m issued shares only assuming done at 120p.

Shorts are 9% now being 26m shares but let’s round to 30m including a few of the sub 0.5% shorters but there maybe more

Post the deal passing … shorts will be 30m of the 130m shares in issue and they will have to sort their positions out to navigate the B share which usually isn’t easy.

30m of 130m shares left in issue is 23% of the new issued capital. However, I would imagine that at least half the register will run the cyber play until it is sold meaning the shorts will really be 30m out of 65m shares in free float so near 50%. I would reckon normal daily volume will be 500k shares max post the buy back which means the earliest for shorts to close is 60 days but probably alot longer. I would hope they continue the buy back on the other side as well.

Throw in what I hope happens if NCC announce a distribution partnership with Anthropic … and this stocks goes meme very quickly and we get a quick 5x which is what the valuation should be anyway

Not long to go now - serious patience has been required but we are close to the turning point now with big rewards AND we get to reinvest our cash into NCC cyber in the market post getting our buy back cash

Exciting times

Not long to go now !

200p here we come … big tender offer and then a Cyber deal ..

Excellent summary

I would also add the bold statements by the company of their ambition to return to no debt … that isn’t from normal cash flow but from more left field disposals .. those will really move the price

It is all very exciting MyP worth £1.5bn (3x sales minimum ) and Beauty £500m in anyone’s book so £2bn total … so £1.40 in my book a share .. 70p next big level for me but masses of upside after that

Did everyone catch on the call …MM saying they have had ’formal approaches’ for some of their manufacturing …a ‘robust’ market and any inbound £100m plus gets serious consideration. …

The price of THG has been set last few years by hedge funds shorting it on the back of the stock being near uninvestable for all the disappointing reasons we know.

These are big sophisticated funds be under no doubt who work 24/7 on their positions. The biggest trick in a generally poor UK market without buyers (even for the good companies) … has been for them to keep hitting the bid .. and again and again. Each time no buyers appearing. They set the price and it was only at 20p when buyers finally went this is ridiculous on the back of some reasonable news and the fact that it almost couldn’t go lower. Actually it is better than that for the hedgies as the price falling even further made holders assume the worse and stopped new buyers coming in … no one should ever try and catch a falling knife and only monkeys pick bottoms as they say.

Hence this price has been set by hedge funds unequivocally.

So what is the real price of THG. Applied Nutrition has not had the hedge fund attack and trades on 3 or 4x sales. THG has always had brand value and the price was never £400m or whatever it got down to. I say £2bn + but let’s see. When new buyers come in and the hedgies unwind this trade will look after itself in a big way. Keep the faith but understanding why we are here is important and should help confidence levels

To be clear THG is at these low levels partly from its own doing .. but mostly coz of hedgies acting in a pack.

Q3 update could be THG’s best ever RNS .. both sides of business in growth .. MyP has masses to talk about …

Should be the catalyst for a sustained run when investors can see the value

50p very soon and still cheap

We don’t know exact date yet but rare to be looking forward so much to a THG RNS, MyP should be super positive with more discussion about the extent of the product roll out

Very exciting

50p+ post that Q3

50p soon

MyP smashing it .. updated in Q3’s probably mid October ish

Maybe VAT news

BIG headline grabbing new product launches .. probably biggest they have ever done ..

Two Unnamed big new partners in confectionary and ready to eat - probably linked to the unnamed partners

Maybe more surprise disposals … bigger this time ..

Oh and valuation completely wrong !!

Exciting times for holders. Reckon directors will pile on after Q3’s

this is shaping up nicely for one of those big return events

1. sum of parts easily 200p + … cyber security valuation definitely rising in current climate

2. top shareholders recent buying - griffiths now 15%, harwood 10% + ….

3. black box shorts 5.5% + short (just the 0.5% declared) that should create a nice aftermarket at 200p + as they close - 15 million shares !!!

4. a chairman who seriously knows what he is doing to deliver all this

5. even ****ney rebel now getting involved who seems to have a good following !!

Given they were well prepped from before … would hope we will hear a result by the end of September. Very confused as to why hedge funds remain so short.

What an excellent post 1 pencil - what the chat rooms should be all about - quality value add

I didn’t know about the 5 fold increase in US doors

There is also the potential vat clawback which could allow a buy back

It sounds like ingenuity is on a rip with potential knock on benefits for thg plc

40p next stop fairly comfortably driven by shorts closing (got to be 50m shares plus shorts still out there ) and index investors further buying. I think pre 50p during summer also comfortably

1 pencil please keep the value add coming