Member Info for sageofclapham

Market makers playing around - we will bounce pm - usual game

Intra day market makers causing the swing - it will bounce back after they have played around

Just reiterating previous views

Ebitda consensus £120m, core ebitda £100m last year despite massive headwinds. Previous ebitda £160m and £150m last two years. We have a better business now. 10k + employees down to 7.5k - massive cost out - in fact £100m last year and more this year. The whey in price benefit is v v large this year. Does £120m feel right ? It doesn’t to me.

However - regardless Apollo rejected at ‘steep’ premium to price of 65p - I guess 100% premium. We rejected. No real explanation. AGM many companies like to stand up and give a trading update or at least set out some vision confidence. Surely that is the platform to re assure holders ? Even if they just hold our hand with confident statements we should rally. IF we ever got more than that it is 100p +. Bring on Wednesday.

I know it doesn’t feel it at 70p BUT thank goodness a discount PE buyer didn’t get our prized assets. MM seeing investors as per his LinkedIn post in Middle East. Shares rallying already. Patience required BUT profits from this level while you wait. Potentially very big profits. Upside greatly outweighs downside. This is a world class business run by a super committed CEO.

Mr Schlemiel - you are partly right BUT it is an earnings upgrade play which will get us much more value than Apollo ever would have done ! With maybe an asset sale at the end !

Just do the numbers !! Core last year £100m ebitda and £130m of cost out and whey prices have reversed most of downgrade pressure from last year and transport - it is potentially a perfect positive storm

Agm date has to be a good Rns update to help explain why a decent offer was rejected .. I hope we will see the justification and then we get the rewards

Brilliant mr Steviat

4 downgrades - forecasts reset … upgrades about to begin surely .. 100p soon I think on AGM dates June 21st if not before while votes count

Thanks mr luckstar

Most important is company numbers

£100m core ebitda last year, £130m cost out and a massive swing in input costs .. analysts think £115m ebitda consensus - Around the corner from the start of an upgrade cycle - net debt down, ebitda up .. nearing cash flow positive which is a massive turning point - all for £850m mkt cap … wrong price

Yes

Unquestionably a buyer coming in, market maker / day trader feeds into strength - seller goes short and then smacks it

However I think that game is running thin - just don’t panic out and the price will come back up … just watch

The uncross is still so large that it is easy to go short and probably has a decent chance of closing his short

We are just lacking depth of buying and sustained

That will come when our upgrade cycle begins

Mr Icouldn’tcomment - you are right …

1. There must have been huge confidence to reject Apollo - driven by whey prices massive swing and fundamentally great business in nutrition worth many billions

2. Other strategic plans I am sure they have

3. Agm date is when I expect first news - standard for many companies to Rns on agm date

4. Don’t forget they have just taken out loss making businesses AND taken £130m out of the business from costs

5. Current ebitda consensus by analysts £120m … not by my numbers !! Let’s see - give whey prices and cost out no reason at all why not back to £160m +++ near term all for £850m mkt cap .. err no !

Sit tight

Mr JonTaylor, I have you down as one of the quirkiest but smartest posters in the THG room - you are bang on in my opinion regarding where this stock goes - I recall you were not always positive - quite high you are suggesting the shares go - I remain in that camp - we are in sectors like Sports direct was and JD was - stocks like those like THG you almost couldn’t give away back in the day - 10 x later who is laughing now. I liked them then but didn’t back them - this time I am going all the way - show me another stock that is so wrong and so good - am talking proper fundamentals - 3-5x multiples - possibly 10x - maybe more. Hence sit tight and accumulate

Good luck

One of the most important factors in business is alignment of interests - I believe MM is fully aligned with shareholders - why would he dilute for no reason - given the rejection of Apollo there must be good trading news around the corner - Agm looming - driven by whey and innovation and nutrition success - wrong price

An offer at a ‘steep’ premium has been rejected with no public justification why BUT MM would have been very confident to have done so - we know with Whey alone there is very positive nutrition profits which hopefully means overall trading is going well especially on the back of £130m cost out of the business, then we could have ingenuity contracts at some point from the very good pipeline - Superdry as per Sunday times - Shopify to beat ? Maybe finally they will complete on the surplus property - given we get net debt figures assuming it is close but it hasn’t been sold !

Any of the above .. but the next Rns you would like to think will be highly positive on back or Apollo rejection .. maybe coming any day but backstop AGM 21st June surely

Mr Jed

Apollo we’re firmly shown the door

Agm is June 21 I believe but not confirmed

Thg will need all guns blazing

Not long to wait

Just an extra bit …

News shorts down here will be very small indeed - the company clearly has options including good trading possible upgrades - we don’t have to worry about that and the negative noise that goes with it

Short term holders might have bailed - but who would sell here ? Bonkers - so only technical small ish short term selling = Relatively small (but still 50m which we have almost had over three days) - thankfully the big risk arb guys did not get involved so nothing of real size to unwind there - just punters - this was due to no price given AND previous bad history with Apollo - they wouldn’t play an Apollo bid = too risky

Then …non holders will have watched and seen a big boy PE get rejected - they will be attracted to this now especially as those big market funds like PE being rejected - a good reason to open a file … what did Apollo see in this

Hence the limited selling will dry up (as it is) and anyone who knows anything about THG will dig in and accumulate

Up they go

Correct mr 0003

From a price perspective it is short term money driving it down - long term big holder ls big money and sticks - once this technical adjustment has worked through the rally will begin … holders will dig in and we will get 100p plus easy - as you said 2x the share price was rejected - even more than 2x who knows but at least 2x = ‘steep’ - sit tight and accumulate

Regardless of what price the offer was (as we may never know) but let’s be sensible and even say 150p (I have no clue to repeat)

Here is the equivalent analogy on your treasured investment flat ..

You get an unsolicited offer on your flat for £150k (a multiple of 150p for those with a hangover) … there was no for sale sign and it wasn’t even quietly on sale ‘off market’ … you reject £150k from your aggressive buyer who even goes and does a survey off his own back despite never actually getting an agreement on price (survey = dd!) and you say on reflection sorry it is not for sale after all as the green shoots in the garden are rising very fast and this little flat is about to get a lick of paint and you think £150k fundamentally under values the flat …you would think in your mind your flat might be worth towards £200k ….. well the equivalent short term view in the City is that it values your flat at …£62k !! Or whatever equivalent level where the shares closed !!

It is the classic short term City indigestion driven by fast money … just give it a few weeks and this share will be massively back up there - this flat comes with a few extra patches of land that most people have no clue might be worth … the owner of this flat actually thinks it is worth £500k + and is quite smart

But guess what … while the ‘under offer’ board was outside the flat … many other would be wealthy buyers have seen it - and seen the green shoots and have noticed these extra parcels of land attached … time will tell

The AGM is around the corner - 21st June I think but not on the website yet

Patience as ever required …

Was hosting annual golf day Friday and missed a lot of the action - of all the flippen days - a very very painful day but will be hanging in - crazy really that presumably a decent bid is rejected and the price goes down - you would think it should go up !

I don’t quite get how he has offended so many people but I am still reading the posts (seems a record day of posting) - thought the LinkedIn post read ok / well but wish he would not put down the London Stock Exchange - we are on it so let’s make the most of it !!

Ah I see not - the time is just an hour out !

Do they get held up and checked for an hour ?

Hope so after that fake Rns today

Jeff mills mocked up a mock Rns saying Apollo had walked !

Actually amusing for a nano second albeit he must have crazy time on hands or paid deramper or desperate - I hope not short as that would make him crackers !