Member Info for sageofclapham

Ocado results looks solid this am - same revenue as THG at £2.0bn + but mkt cap of Ocado £5bn v THG £1.3bn ..

THG share price is in the process of correcting itself back to 200p +

As I have said before we can split hairs on the quality of revenue THG v Ocado - both are good but I prefer THG’s - especially with MP global potential

Either way we just need some patience and small incremental positive steps which we are getting

Ebitda Ocado current year £35m ish expected (I am 90% sure that is the number). THG is £120m !

No further questions your honour

That’s all we need !! Small incrementals is far better than big jumps - several proper buyers around

Best not needlessly wind up the bears OSG - best they just close their shorts and keep quiet - it just antagonises

Seller decides not sell his Picasso for £150m, say because he thinks it’s worth £200m in a few years. Guess what, it is worth £200m. The UK stock market equivalent; you pull away from selling and the price halves - yes - we work in a bonkers market no doubt - FULL of potential and anomalies to make good money BUT you need some cahunas sometimes when your resolve is questioned by the bears. The bears have worked it out now and are running for the hills. This last point might mean that the down escalator and up steps (as another poster said) - changes … and we go up in the lift - jumping several floors at a time …feels like that change in up pace has started

Let’s see

As per previous post - dozens of top grade institutions paid 500p and 590p for THG - aware the world has changed - but the story is good and improving

Monster in the US trades on $60bn mkt cap with sales of $6bn … anything is possible - especially if you start playing US markets - yes yes am I sure the growth profile is different BUT they got Coke to back them and help distribute … either way some of these go go consumer stocks are mega highly rated

Thg is a long way from even 1x sales !! The upside massively outweighs the downside !!

Good luck all

Thanks v much all - fascinating re how far it goes

This board talks a lot about MP ice cream but does anyone have any idea how material it could be - and their other products in that area ? More clarity would be very helpful

How big is Ben and Jerries - different league I know but just to give a feel ?

Mr Canary - good comments

I re read what Kelso said after reading your post - to be fair to them they don’t actually suggest a specific value or multiple but highlight (which is the bit I like) that MP is in a sector that appears very highly rated - indeed some of those big companies quoted are very highly rated with m&a deals done at high levels. The only comment they make as to value is they believe MP is worth more than the market cap - I think they are weak in not giving their view of value which I bet they have as technically they are simply saying MP is worth £1.25bn + and they don’t mention the value of the other businesses - again frustrating. They don’t say it is worth Liberum’s 225p or 220p either whichever it is but rather just highlight it. I think net net it is positive what they are doing. I am also not sure on the buy back - especially as the price rallies further - it is a shame thg didn’t buy back lower down but I guess THG was early in its recovery / bounce - in hindsight they should have hoovered up but that is easy to say now.

Anyway what they said was interesting but I wish they had gone further

The THG story is as strong now as it has ever been . I am not saying we are racing back to these levels of 500p and 590p BUT just a reminder that the THG story was strong enough back then to persuade many of the worlds best investors to invest huge money at 500p and then 590p - £1bn and $1bn. As I say the THG story and opportunity is much bigger now. My point is that when this story is told now with whey price at 5 year lows .. expect large buying from new funds as THG more and more hits their radar screen - these funds buy stories and our story is good and getting better. My own expectation is that the move from 100p to 150p will be very quick as holders lock in for the ride coupled with some short closing. The mere 33% move from 150p to 200p will take a little longer but not much more than a month - probably on the back of the interims which we know will be positive. Sit tight - it is very exciting. 200p by mid October. Good luck all.

If you step back the fall in share price was driven by one thing - downgrades as whey spiked. We are in total reverse now.

Mr Bachshull - be great if you could go back to Advfn for the one liners or stay here and add some value positive or negative - if you have something to add , thanks

Mr Fatman - I wholly agree well said

It puts off value add commentators when we go like advfn/ just ignore derampers and the ‘he said / she said’ people

Numis increased their share price target this am from 35p to 50p - no effect on share price which is good

A good week and month - through 100p next week

The bears are finally chasing their tails

Mr stockbrokerbelt

To be fair to Kelso I don’t think this board has talked about the valuations of the global brands .. fair credit to them - I found that bit interesting in particular - if those stocks are on 4.4x sales then they can pay 4.4x our sales !! Good luck all but let’s give credit where credit is due

As a poster mentioned earlier this pm the IG change to margins was a BIG factor this pm re the price - I am pleased I know what caused the pull back. It will be very short lived and normal share price uplift should return soon post todays indigestion. Essentially IG margin went up and some holders had to trim a bit as a result.

Def a few hedgies leaning on it into the closing auction

Sit tight - importantly we broke through 100p and set new recent highs

Mr Yorek

Huge value add and what chat rooms should be all about

Thank you

I can’t believe yesterdays fall in whey price down to 590 eur per tonne from 638 month before and from the high of 1450 !

With £100m + cost out the business and a guaranteed return to run rate £150m ebitda pre the whey spike this business should be cruising through £200m ebitda … when the penny drops it will move quickly

Mr Bwana - If we all mentioned other pa stocks on this board it would be mayhem !! It is bad enough as it is. Best this board is kept as focused as possible

Just checked Fevertree rough metrics …very quick comparison ..

Revenue £400m expectation current year and £40m ebitda and £100m net cash by the look - market cap £1.4bn - 3x + sales multiple ..

Against THG - £2bn +sales and ebitda of £120m which I think will look light) having made £150m and £160m in 2020 and 2021 !

Wrong price which is now gradually recovering - a long way to go !

Mat I am sure knows that to help make buyers AND to move to premium index governance needs to be top and GS is not top. Hence he is doing the right thing. Well done Mat