Member Info for Sageman

Looking at POG perhaps $2900 is more accurate in terms of an average for the quarterly POG. I was trying to estimate cashflow in excess of costs of production with the objective of trying to work out whether the mine’s development will be self financing. As the cash is being used it won’t be profit. In time though at Hav the B/E will be $800 per oz. My conclusions in my previous post are the same , apologies for not checking the average POG during the quarter. But still cash in excess of mining costs should be IRO $140m and that funds a lot of drilling!

A simple calculation . Shaun said B/E is circa $1500 per oz. In September the price was $2600 vs $3200 now. Based on December production assume quarter = 100,000 oz of gold (ignore copper). He would have expected 260m vs 320m. Expected profit 110m vs 170m actual. So profit 54% higher. $60m extra free cashflow to expand the mines. Critical windfall cash helping to make the project self funding. (I have ignored the copper simply because this is a rough calculation and all the gold wasn’t sold at $3200 and production is a guess). The point is that the rally is not just due to sentiment it is built on increasingly solid fundamentals. Irrespective of the sp movement on Monday Shaun’s leadership combined with the current gold price makes this a unicorn investment. 20-25 by late summer is a very reasonable expectation.

Consolidation is only an issue where a company uses it to rebuild the SP so that it can then do further cash raises and even more dilution. GGP wants to do it for credibility reasons on ASX and I do not believe needs to do any further cash raises. POG combined with extended Telfer mine life = fully funded IMHO.

So Speedy for circa every 10 pence out of net salary you end up with circa 86 pence invested (net of tax free cash). An 8 fold risk free return. Learlyyou have never taken financial advice from a chartered financial adviser. Once in the pension you can trade ETF’s etc with no CGT worries per an ISA but in this example with 8 x more money

Speedy, if you are earning between 100k and circa 125k you pay 62% tax ( due to income tax 40%, loss of personal allowance, and 2% NI). So you receive 38pence in the £. If your employer allows salary exchange and credits you with the 15% employer NI saving then every 38p from net salary = £1.15 invested. After age 55 you can take 25% of the £1.15 in TFC. You may know lots about gold but you know the square root of nothing about tax efficient investing!

In his recent video calls Shaun mentioned that cash levels were at a similar level as at the end of December. I was delighted to hear that. There is much development being done that previously people thought may require another cash call or more loans. Our Telfer cash cow is indeed fully funding Hav and funding the resource expansion at both Hav and Telfer. This was not anticipated. The increase in POG could not have occurred at a better time. I look forward to Monday.

Looking at the vaneck gold mining etf it is up circa 8.5% . This bodes well for all gold miners. Gold keeps going up. Tomorrow those who have bought the dip in GGP will be smiling.

A sentence on a piece of paper is easy. The reality takes an army. Intelligence would show increases in China military etc. Timing unknown but likely in next 18 months. In meantime strategy is to reduce reliance on China. …Just a theory but the facts fit.

I suspect that US intelligence warned of Taiwan invasion. Trump is putting in place structural changes in advance of this. Interesting that only China took the bait. I suspect that other leaders were given the heads up.

The issue is that ishares physical gold can be held in a pension or an ISA. To suggest the investment is worthless is unfortunate. It tracks the price of gold bullion nicely. I do not want the gold itself and nor do investors in GGP. If the wheels fell off global markets then there may be an issue but really….

5eights - my understanding is that ishares physical gold is backed with physical gold with JP Morgan as custodian. It’s an etf and your comments about Trump cancelling all golds ETF’s and ETc’s are not appreciated!

When gold is rising and profitable gold producers are falling you know that irrational sentiment is in play. Also traders have to sell profitable trades to cover margin calls etc. GGP is well up since 1/3 (it was circa 8p). Assuming that Shaun has been truthful this is a time to acquire if you have the spare cash and thereafter to await Q1 figures and the ASX listing. This company (in Australia) will not be impacted at all by tariffs and could be a beneficiary as gold increases.

Speedy, agreed. However when sentiment dominates logic is abandoned. Accordingly research can triumph allowing you to pick up stocks indiscriminately sold by those panicking. I have picked up consumer staple type investments - supermarkets, utilities etc whose business model has not been negatively impacted by tariffs but the sp has. This logic neatly leads us to a certain Australian gold mine….!

There has been indiscriminate selling with people dumping and being margins called on futures trading. The very people trading this stock. This is in good profit since 1st March so if needs must… A good time to buy as this Australian mine is not impacted by the Donald.

Element, I was being conservative. My numbers are sufficiently positive to make me feel very happy . Also when I was listening to Shaun he kept flitting between Aussie Dollars and US dollars and I have no idea if the December numbers will continue (maintenance etc). Hence I ran my own conservative figures. GLA

Based on gold prices and Decembers production. We are making circa $17m per month more than expected when deal was done at gold price of $2600. Our current monthly cashflow based on December is over $100m per month. We await the quarterly results but this money at this time is critical in terms of funding Hav and reducing the probability of a fund raise. Others here get the mining side and I am grateful for that knowledge. However, the sp is about the money and at this time funding the expansion of both Telfer and Hav. If Shaun can self fund markets will love it.

I reflected on the interview. Shaun said he is making 100% profit. So B/e at Telfer is circa $1500. He said grades at Hav are 5 x better than Telfer. Hav B/E $800. Deal done at $2600 = expected profit $900. Profit now $1500. So $600 per oz extra profit. He his expanding resource and mine life. The extra cash (windfall) should mean no dilution given existing cash and borrowing facility. He implied that cash balances are unchanged since 31/12 which means that everything is indeed being funded by the Telfer cash cow.

The issue with the ASX listing is that it will create additional demand from Aussie institutional funds that can only buy Aussie assets. Listening to Shaun reaffirmed my thoughts. It is rare indeed to get a cash cow fully funding what will be an even better cash cow . He talks about “laser focus” to maximise the mines for shareholders. Everyone should listen to both interviews.

My 408785 purchase at 4.25 is shown as a sale!

Just bought another £50,000 at 12.23 on the back of the Sean Day interviews. Hav fully funded by the Telfer cash cow will be amazing. The Asx listing is also a bigger deal than I realised.