Member Info for Sageman

Great posts Element1. I look forward to the feasibility studies for both Hav and West dome deeps. Once we have some robust numbers for the analysts to crunch the sp will fly. It is one thing for me to believe that in all probability this can all be self funded (assuming no mine problems and strong POG) but the analysts need the numbers before they invest client money. In the meantime for us to have strong production at a time of completely unexpectedly high gold prices is transforming the finances literally daily. Without wanting to be boring, coming into 2024 gold had been circa $2000for the previous 5 years. Trump was an outsider for the White House. No one forecast higher than $2500 in even the most optimistic forecasts. Yet here we are at over $3300. This is literally financial dreamland. It is great for the whole gold mining sector but for GGP it is monumental. I have witnessed several excellent mining projects where the sp tanks due to dilution/funding issues. GGP expected to need to raise cash. I suspect it it is self funding. We await confirmation.

Never trust Tymers. He is the very worst type of BB poster. A sad parasite that tells people to buy when he is selling and vice versa. I have experienced his actions many times. Then he likes to gloat. The biggest cu next Tuesday On a BB that you could ever encounter.

Timber I know that we have some puts in place at an average of $2600 US for some of our production.

For me other than the ASX listing the most critical piece of the jigsaw is the revised feasibility study for Hav. At present we are sitting with an open cheque book. Once we have a better idea of costs and likely production more detailed financial forecasts can be made which in turn should lead to a re-rate (Hopefully up). What is clear is that financially and operationally we are in a better position than even the most optimistic forecasts could have hoped.

MAD. The bit you are missing is that we have to fund HAV and all forecasts include capital raising (debt/dilution). Previous forecasts would also include a far lower POG, technical problems at Hav leading to delays and higher costs (it happens in mining) and a Telfer mine life ending in 2026.Institutions take time to redo their calculations. They are investing other people’s money and are conservative. The institutions are money men like me who don’t understand mining just figures. One quarter is not a lot of data. In contrast we have the likes of Bamps who gets the geologicals and hs been spot on. The mine development (both) are less problematic than feared. POG could fall but we have still banked the windfall cash, reduced costs , increased production and increased Telfer mine life.

Last year the optics were : Telfer production 200-250. Mine life mid 2026. POG had been flat at circa $2000 for 5 years . Hav needing to be funded. Not likely to be producing until late 2027. Project needing to be managed. Profit only circa $500 per ounce. Project to fund cost over $1bn.

No wonder Newmont walked away and the sp at 4.8 accurately reflected the situation.

Current situation: Telfer mine life 5 - 10 years. Production 300,000 +. POG $3300 and rising. No need to rush HAV to get cash flow to repay debt. Opportunity to run both mines together to get a period of 500,000 oz per year.

Sean coming into the project would have focussed on costs and trying to both develop Hav and extend Telfer. This has been achieved beyond expectation, For Telfer to now have a much extended mine life and therefore cash flow is massive. Similarly Shaun would have focused on OP’s and increasing production. Again he achieved beyond expectation in Q1.

But the icing on the cake is POG. The analysts expected us to be cash hungry going gap in hand to the banks or needing further dilution. However, at this level of POG we will produce circa $500,000 to $700,000 more cash than expected in this year alone. With Telfer pumping out cash and its life extended there is no rush for Hav so costs can be spread which again helps cash flow.

I have no idea how long POG will continue at this level. However it was in no one’s budgets. It has transformed this project when combined with the operational measures. I expect Shaun to lock it in using the futures market to derisk the project. It was interesting that a recent analyst report said that they expected net cash outflows in Q1 when we had net inflows. However, even without the windfall from POG the mine extension life at Telfer is a game changer. Cash flow when previously none was expected and then running Telfer and Hav in Tandem.

So 12 months ago we would have been a cash hungry company and priced accordingly. A simple bit of maths shows us producing $500-$700m more cash than expected if POG remains at current levels. We have all witnessed how shareholders get nailed to the wall when the company needs cash (especially should their be delays and issues). This was in the price. The analysts are still not properly pricing in the additional cashflow and how financially significant it is to GGP. For other miners just ticking over the extra money is a nice to have. But for GGP who would otherwise be borrowing and diluting it is a total gamechanger. As the recent broker summary says (where they have raised their sp target to 25p they expected net cash outflows in Q1. We had net cash in flows.

A year ago Gold was circa $2000 an ounce. It had been flat for the previous 5 years. So looking forward you are thinking B/E $1600. POG circa $2000. Production 250,000 oz per year. Hav to fund . So debt and dilution for funding. So our partner walked and left it to Shaun. The Donald wins the election, Tariff mayhem, brilliant management. POG now circa $3300, production circa 380,000 oz pa . Complete gamechanger. As you say multiplier - right place, right time, right management and one good mine and a second mine that is 1st class..The whole mining sector has been transformed not just GGP as everyone benefits from unbugetted for windfall profits .

A great read. They had modelled cash outflows whereas they has cash in flows. This is the bit that i have been making a noise about. The mines need developing. PI's focus on one share institutions have several and GGP is not a priority. Hence them taking time to un their numbers. However, if you are modelling outflows then you must allow dilution and capital raises at poor SP rates. The windfall cash at this stage driven by POG and operational efficiencies are indeed gamechangers in terms of the current sp.

A few days ago I said that I expected to see 20-25p come the summer/ ASX listing. Nice to see that the professionals are starting to concur.

Vaneck gold miners ETF is up nearly 5% today. This is pretty much in line with our rise today. We have great news flow and are in a rising sector driven by POG and equity sector rotation. The fact that we are only rising with the sector despite expecting to substantially outperform the sector at operational company level bodes well for future SP rises.

Element, I am unsure which part you disagree with. The game has changed. The point is that the institutions , in the main , are loath to engage with a penny share on AIM with only 4 months of production. Income funds are not interested as there is no dividend etc. This lack of interest is an advantage for a PI prepared to do their own research and take a risk.

Profit taking happens all the time when shares have appreciated strongly in the lead up to the results. Good for people to take profits and for others to buy in for the next leg of the journey. Some people think that this is a casino where we instantly double or triple over night. Currently we have very little data (in comparative terms) . The data is however positive and going in the right direction. When we have more data (more to analyse) others will invest. This is a rare unicorn for PI's. A cash cow with no need for dilution due to self funding as long as POG stays strong. Still too early for many institutions to come on board , especially with it being AIM, Not yet big enough for big institutions to research in detail. In the meantime PI's can load up ahead of the ASX listing and wait for the data which the number crunchers need for their algorithms. Nice for the system to work in our favour.

Markets typically either buy the rumour and sell the fact or sell the rumour and buy the fact. In this case we have had both. We have risen sharply since 1st March. Good results were expected and this was in the price. However, they exceeded expectations allowing for profit taking and the price still moving up a little. Today was a good day for GGP IMHO. As someone else said a penny a week will do nicely up to ASX listing. Good money short term but long term a £10bn MCAP come 2028/29 when Hav is producing strongly (assuming POG stays positive).

I am vey happy with the results. The surprise for me was the amount of extra cash. I thought Shaun said that cash was the same level as at the end of December. There is inevitable profit taking on the results given the strong gains since 1st March. However, once the dust settles and the numbers crunched the investment case is evident. I said 20p come summer and I do not believe I will be disappointed. Mine expansion will be fully self funded by the look of things.

Agreed, so trade the bounce via an ETF. Don’t buy and hold.However, people need tech. The mag 7 are the mag 7 for a reason. Happy to take 10% and then buy miners (note I am already 70% of portfolio in gold/gold miners). Balance in cash

No arguments there speedy. But if you already have your fill of Gold ( or are close to maxed out in terms of overweight asset allocation )early doors is also a massive opportunity to buy a tech etf at 8am. Trumps cancellation of tariffs on computers, phones etc = one massive rally. I am buying tech tomorrow, profit taking a day or 2 later and then buying more gold miner etfs.

Hi Guy, why borrow and pay interest when you have cash in your current account? The point of my calculations was to show that the POG is providing excess cashflow that could not be budgeted for. This is coming at a time of high development costs. Had POG tanked we would have needed to raise, dilute etc. Shaun recently said that cash was the same as it was at the end of December. So we are self funding. IMHO this is massive when combined with the huge increase in resource at Telfer and resultant increase in mine life.

FWIW ninety one global gold fund has zero initial fee as an alternative to Vaneck or Blackrock gold and general. You can’t hold an ETF or an ETC in an onshore capital Investment Bond (you can in ISA, Pension , GIA etc). The ninety one fund , like the Blackrock fund can be held in a capital Investment Bond. (Lots of retired people hold capital investment bonds under trust etc as part of IHT planning).

Great interview. I will buy vaneck gold miners on Monday (lower charges both ongoing and initial) than Blackrock gold and general. I have my physical gold (50% of portfolio) and my max of Greatland so more exposure to gold miners via a low cost diversified route makes sense. Thank God for gold it has propelled my portfolio higher at a time when otherwise losses would be incurred.