Member Info for Sageman

Great posts element. Globalisation needed a rebalance and Trump’s clumsy actions are the catalyst for that to happen. Goods will get sold. There will be new alliances. I see a rotation away from the USA. Post Brexit Britain and Europe will be major winners. We are rebalancing portfolios on this basis. Places like Australia who have lower geopolitical risks will also benefit. In the meantime all very unsettling because cozy alliances and vested interests have been displaced with Gold an asset class that will continue to see support. A balanced diversified portfolio still has its place but the 70% US equity bias will be replaced. The impact of this on the $ will intensify adding more fuel for gold. Essentially a circa of cumulative causation , good for gold, good for Europe and the U.K. once short term pain is negotiated. Bad news for the USA!

This is simple. Costs lower than forecast. Production higher than forecast. POG higher than forecast. More total gold than forecast. Analysts forecast net cash outflows in Q1, doh! If you work conservative numbers on 60,000 oz produced in Q1, and POG at $2100. Then combine with mine life at Telfer of 9 months you can see why Newmont (who have debts) wanted this off balance sheet. With Hav to fund you can also see why we would want an ASX listing. Fast forward to May 2nd and with our production levels exceeding forecasts etc we are banking in free cash flow circa $1.5m per day more than the forecasts. Also mining is a complex business you have to expect glitches. We have had none just an uninterrupted flood of money.

Shaun is keen for the ASX listing to go well. He said that extending the mine life at Telfer was key to this. The prospectus is due later this month. We have a town hall on the 6th. I would expect an RNS prior to the prospectus if he had material drilling results to extend the life of Telfer further.

Doozer, I have been investing for 40 years and have had my share of dogs, 😂. The one thing that the dogs have in common is great prospects but no money. Dilution,dilution dilution with resultant shareholder decimation. GGP is a unicorn with a market expecting dilution but confounded and yet to re-rate due to POG and extended mine life at Telfer.The analysts have us drawing on debt facilities not banking cash. Enjoy the ride .

I am now looking forward to the May 6th town hall with anticipation along with the prospectus for the ASX listing. This has been well planned. I am 100% aligned with the analysts who have predicted 20-25p pre ASX listing. The listing is June. Tomorrow we are in May. You can buy for circa 13.5 p. I have never said this before on any BB but honestly guys fill yer boots to whatever level your risk profile will allow. GLA

FWIW my view is that the initial driver to list on ASX access to capital with the ancillary benefits secondary but substantive. Much work was done to make it happen. The POG went through the roof,cash flow was beyond wildest dreams coupled with the prospects for future Telfer mine life. The need to access capital has become a nice to have but the driver is now the ancillary benefits. Another month completed where cash flow will have smashed budgeted expectations.

My understanding is that it is possible for a market maker to buy on Aim and sell on AsX. There are some regulatory hurdles but not impossible.

Some pathetic posts . We didn’t break 10p until mid March. Here we are at over 12.5 - so up circa 25% in just over a month and you would think the end of the world was nigh just because we have consolidated from our recent peak this year, a peak achieved only last week. The trend is up but it won’t go up daily. Profit taking is both normal and healthy.

So the Black Scholes Merton valuation method says 18.54 is fair value for the options at this stage. I am not qualified to disagree, 😂. I look forward to a similar valuation being applied to our shares prior to the listing.

I have watched countless videos and read several years of RNS’S. when you listen to a video you then try to interpret the RNS. My understanding is that there is no wish and no need to dilute when we cross list but they need shares for the listing. I am expecting a minimal amount of dilution but we await the ASX listing prospectus for confirmation. In terms of the options they were at 11.9. Hurdle rate. The pay out is 6.64. You only get paid according to the amount over the hurdle rate. So implied sp is 18.54 (not 18.64 but close enough to make the point). The payout is deemed fair and reasonable in which case so is the projected sp!

Shaun’s Sunday roast was interesting. The work on the Telfer mine extension was essential for the ASX listing so the he can put it in the prospectus for the listing . The prospectus is due late May. We have a town hall on My 6th. Should be good PR.

Looking at the recent options announcement. The implied price for the strike is 18.6p. Another thing I picked up is that the extra shares to be issued on listing are max 2.5% but now likely to be 0.9%.

The sp of a company is the MCAP divided by the shares in issue. If the MCAP stays the same and you do a 20 to 1 consolidation it follows that the sp goes up 20 times. The hope thereafter is that the extra demand from ASX investors increases the sp.

There is some serious lack of understanding being displayed by certain posters. I have used their ignorance to double my holdings in recent days. Good luck all and yes 18p next week would be lovely!

Hi Gold, we can all quote bad examples but I believe that there are several positive ones too. Normally the bad ones did it whilst cash hungry to increase the sp artificially and then dilute some more although they all said that was not the case! In contrast we have the Telfer cash cow pumping out lots of cash. There will be a new prospectus etc for the listing and lots of media. I get the worry but logic says this will be positive.

When a company cross lists in order to raise additional funding then be very wary and I get your caution Jester. However, this company is cross listing for structural reasons. The regulatory bar on ASX is higher than AIM. They have as we speak circa 500k Aussie $ in the bank and a debt facility for circa 875k in total. There is no need to raise capital via dilution and the higher regulatory bar in Australia should offer us better protection.

If you believe in this company it is another opportunity to pick up more. Just had a nibble at 12.5p.

Just rechecked 398m Aussie $ was what he had at 31/3. With gold at over 5000 Aussie $ and producing 1000 oz per day that figure should be closer to 500m Aussie $ by,the end of April.

Did anyone else hear Shaun say that he currently has a cash balance of 398m Aussie dollars? If so cash has doubled since 31/3. I loved the interview. Sticking to his knitting and not getting distracted by other projects. Clear goal is Telfer extension. Having both mines in tandem for as long as possible . For me that would be massive. Then plans to ramp up production at Hav.

SXX failed because they had no cashflow and the Woodsmith mine cost far more than budgeted for. Anglo American bought it and have spent and spent on it. Eventually it will be a tremendous cash generator but it continues to drain cash. It is precisely the risk of developing Hav if you plan with POG sub $2000, potential cost overruns and delays so cash flow is delayed and a 9 month life on Telfer. Hence potential big bills, dilution borrowing and an unknown period with zero cash flow. So great mine but painful for shareholders short term hence the 4.8p price. But that is now NOT the case. Telfer mine life potentially 10 years plus, POG over $3000. Cash inflows of circa $3m per day. As Shaun says q1 was transformational. With everyday that passes as gold is sold into these high rates the project is de-risked. But the Telfer cash cow mine life extension to fund it all is the true game changer. The Woodsmith mine will eventually be fantastic but SXX shareholders lost heavily and thus far Angl0 American share holders are losing out too. When you go cap in hand to borrow money you pay dearly even if it all comes good in the end. With GGP that looks very unlikely.

I am not impressed with this carp. This legal action needs funding and the more people funding it the better. Of course the fine detail must not be disclosed but if you win it will establish precedent. Guess what guys other holders will then also be able to claim! A commentary on this board (at low level not prejudicial to the claim ) will have no impact. One word guys “delusional” the other is pathetic. Having dealt many times with lawyers they do not know the final cost at inception. It always goes up . No lawyer is ever knowingly underpaid.

Hi, I am a financial adviser (40 years in the industry) . I gave the simple answer earlier. However, this answer is just factual so no advice. None of my posts should be considered as financial advice.

Mike, our shares remain on Aim. Therefore no impact in terms of IHT .