Member Info for Sageman

My view FWIW is that GGP is in for an exciting end of 2025 with the potential for the sp to double during that time. But only a fool would invest all their eggs in one basket. I have spent several hours this week researching gold mining companies. If you believe POG will rise the miners offer a geared play due to fixed costs. I also have a small punt in WSBN but my largest holding is in Gold mining ETF, Jupiter Gold and Silver and physical gold, Throw in Artemis global income and Aegon high yield bond (for your fixed interest) and you have a rocking well diversified portfolio (albeit overweight in gold)

The article is worth a read and supportive of my view that previous analyst assessments of 25-30p in old money were not rampy. For me with GGP it is all just a bit too soon for analysts to fully engage. There was no guarantee we would make the index (we needed a rule change). We await drilling results from Telfer. We await the Have feasibility report. At the start of this year many projections for POG were over $1000 (US) lower than they are today. There is a saying “ show me the money”. That is what the markets awaits but not just the money it awaits drilling results. We can all dream about Hav but let’s see the proper bankable feasibility study. We should see a nice boost in the sp this month due to index inclusions but if the drilling and the Hav feasibility report are positive we will all be smiling very broadly come Xmas. GLA

GGP went to 38p on JV and sentiment before tumbling back to under 5p and that was in a very different market for gold that we are in today. If the assays are good enough the sp will see a sentiment driven spike the top of which is hard to predict as logic may not be in play.

Anytime soon includes drilling next year , high POG and amazing assays . 200m max is a lot different to the 4-500m mentioned previously. But an Sp rarely is based solely on logic since emotion is a powerful driver. 7-10p is possible IMHO but time will tell. GLA

Last known MCAP of Newcrest is circa 10bn vs GGP at 2bn. Newcrest was far bigger and at a very different place than GGP in terms of asset development, for now GGP need their cash to sort out their existing assets. Things may change. But short term if the assays are amazing another miner may buy/JV and pay to use GGP’s processing facilities. I doubt anyone would pay more than £200m any time soon though given the investment needed and timeline to 1st gold. On that basis 7-10p is more realistic and from this sp level an exciting prospect. GLA

I don’t see GGP moving for this anytime soon. Yes they are proximate but they have plenty on their plate drilling Telfer and developing Haverion. The latter will be capital intensive and until the feasibility report is completed in Q4 they don’t know how much money will be involved. However, if POG remains strong and keeps rising it could be possible later in 2026. There are however, lots of other miners out there dripping with cash so there would be no shortage of potential suitors.

I spent some time this morning looking at recent results from some of the larger gold miners and it is extraordinary what is occurring. The free cashflow flow is being used to massively reduce debts by hundreds of millions but also share buy backs , again several hundred million. It follows that if Wishbone drilling results show Tier 1 asset potential we could very easily be snapped up . Given the free cashflow around a few hundred million would be easily affordable even to the mid tier miners from cash at bank (no borrowing required) .

What is being missed here is that completely unexpectedly we have a gold sector awash with cash due to the massive rise in POG. Companies suddenly have huge amounts of free cashflow. In 2024 with POG at $2000 companies were ticking over, servicing their debts, needing to borrow to drill. GGP are an excellent example they were forecast to be borrowing in contrast they have several hundred million now in the bank. So what? Our MCAP is tiny and the sector is awash with cash with companies on the look out for new opportunities. Normally our assay results would come out, if good the sp would spike and then the grim reality of years of funding the drilling and infrastructure would impact. In the current environment expect a JV or buyout on decent assay results. Exciting times ahead (but don’t bet the farm!)

Mr John, really?! Is that the best you can do telling us that Hav is not up and running yet well I never!. None of us knew that. What you miss is cash generation beyond the wildest dreams of any prudent budget calculations. POG meaning that even low grade processing makes money. A sector awash with cash. We await the q4 feasibility study for Hav, we await drilling results. The prize is running Telfer and Hav in tandem debt free at 500,000 oz pa 2028-2033with gold at elevated levels. At current POG T/O would be circa $1.7bn Pa I will leave it to others to speculate on the resultant MCAp/ SP but suffice to say that the upside here remains attractive.

We should see interesting action next week because the announcement was post ASX close and because whilst GGP qualified on MCAP it would have needed a change in the rules and the August vote result was not made public prior to the index announcement. It follows that the trackers would not have loaded up. I would also expect that any shorts will be closed . Thus trackers buying , plus shorts closing, plus other institutional funds buying (so not just trackers). There are a shortage of tradeable shares so September should be a strong month for GGP. GLA

Gold miners are suddenly receiving more cash than anticipated, Debts are being repaid, capital is being built. The question is where to invest? If our assays go well a JV partner will swiftly emerge. Upside here is potentially large. GLA

Hi Element, assuming ASX200 inclusion of Friday I expect a decent September bounce. I already have over my upper limit of GGP (7.5% of my portfolio). But I have close to 40% of my portfolio in gold and diversified gold mining sector funds. Throw in Vaneck Defence, (10%) Artemis global income (20%) and some Aegon high yield bonds for the non equity portion (30%) and you have a portfolio that rocks. I do have some other stocks but this is the basic asset allocation. Diversification is essential in any portfolio and never fall in love with any stock as it too often does not end well. GLA

There are actually 2 issues:

1) What was the result of the vote to change the composition of the index in terms of qualification time. This is systemic and nothing to do with GGP.

2) Whether GGP will be in the index on September 5th

Given the MCAP of GGP if the qualification rules change it will be included. We won't know the new index until the 5th but surely someone knows the result of the vote.

Over the weekend I recommended diversifying throughout the sector. Jupiter Gold & silver up a healthy 5.73% today. When combined with GGP’s gains this week things are looking up. GLA

No worries Spades..Lots going on. Great day today for everyone in GGP and holding diversified gold holdings

Great post Element. The composition of the ASX200 will be known on Friday, so not long to go. My hope was always that on inclusion (fingers crossed for this month) our SP would already be north of £3 so the additional buying would not be from a low base. With POG at these levels IMHO GPP has massive potential. I await Telfer drill results and Hav feasibility study. A number of analysts are still in that £5-£6 range and I do not disagree with them as a 2025 Q4 target assuming the number are benign. GLA

I don’t believe it is a binary choice between Wishbone or GGP. I have 8 x more in GGP. Totally different risk. I then have physical gold , Jupiter Gold and Silver, and 3 other broad gold mining funds. With the rising POG it is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel and it is hard for a PI to research every company in the sector. The gold mining sector is the polar opposite of the oil sector.

With over 2bn shares in issue and an MCAP of circa £40m I think that £1 anytime soon is somewhat delusional. An sp of 8-10p on decent assays and/or a JV is a much more realistic albeit highly optimistic short term target. A very nice uplift from here. I have high hopes that the geological data will mirror Telfer/Haverion but let’s keep it real.

I am sorry guys but oil is always a geared play on the commodity price due to fixed costs. In the case of Tullow those costs are exacerbated by debt servicing costs. Had POO been north of $100 all would be well. The sector is experiencing the exact opposite of the gold mining sector. The smart money shipped out of here months ago. You all need to pray that POO rises sharply . GLA

There was an excellent post a week or so ago about the ratio of gold/silver price. I checked it out and as a result increased my weighting in Jupiter gold and silver. A very good call. I am very happy with GGp and crossing my fingers for September 5th ASX200 inclusion but a rising tide lifts all boats. Due to the fixed cost nature of mining buying mining shares is a geared play on the underlying commodity. Diversification is a golden rule of investment so yes hold your GGP but spread your net throughout the sector. It is working well for me. GLA