Member Info for Sageman

Award for the most delusional post of the day is to the person who said that since GGP can borrow at 5% for drilling etc they should buy shares etc. sorry to disappoint but this is not a UK residential mortgage. The rate would be typically 2 to 3 x that figure rising as the borrowing increases and therefore the risk increases (and that if finance can be found). Lenders often also want additional goodies on top which is why miners usually fund the bulk either from cashflow (if possible) or dilution.

What silence from SD? If you look at the RNS history he has been anything but silent in recent weeks. The news vacuum is simply that the company has been spending lots of money on Telfer drilling and we await results. I suspect that SD will be publishing results at his earliest opportunity - especially if they are good. Credibility needs to be restored.

Thanks Bamps. I hope that the Telfer drills are as positive as you expect. Hopefully we will soon get a steady positive flow of RNS’S confirming.

Prior to the results I said show me the money. We now need to be shown drill results. In the absence of a 25% upwards move on POG what the market wants to know is whether our drilling is commercially additive. The feasibility report for Hav is Q4 but if the markets heard that we have a 5 year mine life at Telfer at decent grades all would be swiftly forgiven with credibility restored accompanied by a healthy rise in the sp. The sooner we get positive drilling results the better.

Current mid price is exactly the directors buy in price…..just saying!

Bamps, I am talking solely about revenue.

Hi Bamps, silly Q but have you adjusted the Newcrest model for POG? I am sure that if they knew POG was going north of $3000 they would never have sold.

I 100% agree Bamps that we need to use our cash for our own development . Until we get the HAV feasibility study though we won’t know how much cash is needed , so best to build cash where we can. Borrowing is expensive and dilution normally tanks the SP. All previous funding models that I am aware of were based on a world where POG had been below $2000 for many years (2019-2024). My hope is that those models will be revised post feasibility study if POG remains north of $3000. Mining is a fixed cost business so POG is critical because you bank the excess over costs.

I guess that I am fortunate in that whilst I have exceeded my normal investment allocation limits GGp was never more than. 7.5% of my investment portfolio (excludes cash deposits which are 5 years of expenditure). I had expected to sell some at 20p (£4) on ASX 200 index inclusion. If not before . The analysts were at 29p £5.80) so I don’t see that as unrealistic. Prior to results I posted saying that there was nothing left to say “show me the money”. Sadly the guidance was not as expected and we have reaped the harvest! Watching the sp fall is not pleasant but currently I am not bothered. POG is strong, cash generation strong, now it’s about Telfer drilling results (given we are spending here) and HAV. Feasibility.The SP is rarely logical since sentiment applies. If the numbers are benign and POG strong I remain comfortable that the analyst forecasts will occur. GLA

At the risk of being repetitive the directors buy in price (just under 12p) seems to have held as the bottom. POG is strong so revenue is strong. We continue to bank what can only be regarded as windfall cash. That cash is needed for Hav and is increasingly being used to extend Telfer. We await feasibility study q4 but if Shaun want’s credibility he needs to publish Telfer drilling results asap. Anything on extended mine life and/or better future grades would be useful. The holy grail is Telfer and Hav having an overlap of production (mega cashflow) . If markets thought we would have that say 2028-2033 our SP would rocket. Fingers crossed.

The bottom thus far (by pure chance!!) seems to be the directors option price/ share repurchase - so just below 240 in new money. It will be fascinating to see if this holds.

So if institutions are buying and the sp is dropping there must be someone selling. Who? In the prospectus it said that there were shares held by Newmont that Sean would have sole discretion in terms of managed sales. Apart from the fact that I think the Aussies are rightly annoyed that we altered production guidance only a few weeks post prospectus it is the only thing I can think of but surely that selling would need to be reported. Thoughts anyone.

We have debts and interest rates have risen over the last few years. What we really needed was oil over $100 per barrel. Sub $80 there is not enough meat on the bone. At $100+ the finances move rapidly forward. Tullow is experiencing the exact opposite of the gold miners who have emerged from a period of POG at circa $2000 to circa $3400. In a fixed cost business the free cashflow is transformative. The point is that in the current oil price is killing Tullow due to debts accrued when the optics were very different for both the cost of debt and the price of oil and there is not much that management can do about it.

FWIW I watched the presentation and it had very little impact on me and from the sp reaction my reaction was the one in the room. Investors are focused on the future so the trip down memory lane was of zero value. What I wanted was a focus on drilling at Telfer, a focus on water at Hav, a focus on grades at Telfer and anything that might make me believe that the Hav feasibility report is progressing positively. The Aussie’s are clearly angry that the prospectus and the new guidance are not the same given the short timeline between them. That is an own goal. Our SP has been spanked/manipulated mercilessly post results and if I was not overweight I would buy more. In the meantime POG rises, the sector rises and our cash balances rises. Turning back to the presentation, one word, “limp”. We move on.

Hi Bamps, I admit to being a novice when it comes to geology . However, my basic understanding of Aus is that it is pretty dry albeit that there are underground streams etc. My simplistic understanding was that Hav had underground water that needed to be dealt with (pumped). Not normally a problem. In the last day or 2 we have seen pictures of flash floods back in February. Normally flash flood water goes away quickly - perhaps a couple of weeks , in which case no big deal. As long as the water isn’t a health and safety issue (is it?) I had assumed that the occasional down time caused would not be an issue . A bit like leaves on the track in the U.K. with railways. Disruptive at the time but very limited financial impact. As I say I am a novice in this area. Please advise me as to what I have missed/failed to understand. Thanks mate.

Hi Rotherby, it would be so useful if the presentation could be broadcast on teams or zoom. It is not hard anyone with a laptop could make it work. People then would just dial in. I believe you could make it a subscription service.

SC, I am not accusing anyone at GGP of anything but this weeks sp action has a real whiff to it. The short, the SP over reaction, the bottom being the directors buy in price and all at a time when POG is strong and the analysts remain positive. I am happy with the company fundamentals but the sp action does not sit right with me as it would appear to have been manipulated. When something doesn’t look right and is inexplicable it is normally because it isn’t right.

Thanks Bamps. For me it’s about cashflow, Telfer mine life and Hav with production and POG being critical. I have not seen anything this week that torpedoes the big picture and would not be surprised to see the SP recover through August with new 2025 highs in September upon ASX listing. The feasibility report for Hav is critical. What I have learned this week is that short term the sp is more subject to manipulation than anticipated but that the bottom appears to be around the directors share buy in price. It is both comforting and telling that the analysts have not rushed out and massively downgraded sp forecasts. If the professionals are expecting decent gains from here then we should too.

I refer you to my post yesterday and also to ones previously regarding director share holdings. I believe that the prices involved were circa 11.88/11.89 old money. The sp was significantly higher (Directors exercised options getting circa 18p) then amazingly the sp was walked back and the new sp was such that they could buy again at 11.88/11.89 again. Then post recent results the bottom appears to be circa that same magic figure. I am not making accusations but it does leave me scratching my head. It could just be an interesting observation and hopefully it means we have bottomed out. However, I would be interested to see if we get any announcements regarding purchases for staff around this price point in the coming days. In the meantime the SP recovery is welcome.

Whilst I don’t normally indulge with conspiracy theories readers of RNS’s may find it interesting to see if circa 11.88p (old money) holds and/or if new performance related staff shares are issued around this price point.