Member Info for Sageman

GDGB up over 6% - a diversified gold mining etf. The whole sector surging with miners being a geared play on POG. GGP up today but will it DOUBLE on ASX admission and news flow by year end? I believe it will. GLA

What is different now is POG which is up circa $1600 in 2 years. It means that the sector is awash with cash. Some companies have so much loose change (millions) that they literally don’t know what to do with it. Do they do dividends, buybacks , drill more , buy explorers. They have gone from cap in hand borrows and share dilution merchants to literally rolling in it. 2 years ago even with decent assay results Wishbone would have faced a long road to production and a rocky road for shareholders. Today everything has changed. If we get good results many producing miners could buy us out of loose change. Fingers crossed for good results. GLA

Actually SC a number of brokers had the forecast 25-29p (in old money by Xmas) . I would rather listen to them than rampers/derampers posting anonymously on a BB. To get there we need good news on Telfer mine life extension (especially West Dome) , good news on HAV DFS and POG north of $3500. The point is that the sp will depend on fundamentals combined with sentiment. If you think the news will be good then invest/hold. If you think the news will be poor jog on. GLA

We have gold at nearly $3700 . Up nearly $1700 per oz in under 2 years and George still can’t make money. If the guy fell in a barrel of tits he would come up sucking his thumb! What a loser. I hold on the basis of a tiny MCAP and a belief that surely…..

No surprise that trackers are not buying - the rebalance does not happen until after the ASX market closes on Friday. The only surprise is that active funds have shown little interest , except Blackrock (probably their Gold & General fund). FWIW they own Ishares who have an ASX200 tracker, so I expect further buying next week . GLA

FWIW I hold shares here and GGP. We await assay/drilling results for both companies. They will turn up in good time. However, rather than stress about when my interest is in the results themselves. The narrative here is akin to children waking up every morning expecting it to be Xmas day and discovering it is still Xmas eve. Chill guys, what will be will be.

I was looking at the tracking error of index trackers and they are typically well under 1%. I was looking at a gold index tracker with an error of 0.22%. So a simple question : How do they achieve such a low tracking error? Is the answer a) by buying funds in the index or B) By buying funds when they are not in the index? The correct answer to the this question will tell you why there continues to be low volume here!!!

If you fancy a debate for Sunday (Speedie might enjoy this). What chance of China annexing Taiwan in 2027 to tie in with the 100 year anniversary of the party (per their stated objective). China, Russia and N Korea entering into a formal economic union. Impact on $? Impact on POG? Impact on crypto? Impact on all gold mining stocks? Actually impact on broader market? A bit of fun for a Sunday - beats being nasty anyway!

A happy thought for Sunday. The year is 2029. Hav is in production and Telfer has a mine life of 10 years +. Production is 500,000 0z pa and POG exceeds costs by 4000 Aussie dollars per oz. Profits would be circa £1bn. On a P/E of 15 our mcap would be circa £15bn and the sp would be 7 times higher than today. The icing on the cake was that in late 2025 the DFS for Hav showed lower costs than expected and drilling results for Telfer showed exceptional grades. With POG being so high GGP purchased Wishbone done the road for £100m using excess cash deposits.

Double hub, the issue is a lack of buyers which creates a thin market.MM’s can then move prices to create action in either direction. They are allowed to try to make money. It also means that relatively low volume shorts can have a disproportionate impact. The good news is that this period will soon pass

Technical question Dunk, if net buyers appeared at a rate of £30m per day how long do you think MM’s could keep the price down? The reality is they would quickly need to move the price up. So any manipulation that may be occurring is because it’s a quiet market with an absence of buyers. I have been in financial services for 40 years…

Dunk, it called supply and demand - you work it out. In the meantime please persist with delusional conspiracy theories. We have a great company but with only 7 months of published production and a shed load of o/s info.

I have mentioned it a few times but it needs repeating. An index tracker must track an index and always tries to have minimal tracking error. It follows that it buys a stock as close to possible to the date of inclusion. This is essentially the 22nd. No one is holding this down. We await the index, Telfer drilling results and Hav DFS. £6 by Xmas. Enjoy!

Most tracker funds will try to track an index with minimal tracking error. It follows that they will buy very close to admission in the index. It is too soon for the trackers. There will also be actively managed funds who try to outperform their benchmarks with the benchmark often being an index. There are numerous actively managed funds that are essentially quasi trackers with small differences. As our inclusion date approaches the buying must start. It hasn’t yet.

There has been some debate about index tracking funds. My understanding is that an index tracker must track the index. The fund try’s to avoid any drift away from the performance of the index. It follows that trackers buy very close to the date that the company is admitted to the index. There are also active fund managers many of whom have benchmarks. They will typically hold many of the funds within the benchmark and try to produce alpha by selective stock picking. It follows that when a fund is admitted to an index that it is not just tracker funds that subsequently purchase stock.

I think that a class action of this nature has zero chance of success. In reality the only people suffering here a short term traders not getting rich in a matter of hours. In reality we await to enter the index, await feasibility report for HAV and drilling results for Telfer. The sp continues in an upwards trajectory with inevitable volatility with £6 a real possibility by year end. They always say that the stock market is a mechanism for moving money from the impatient to the patient and this share is a great example reading some of the posts. GLA and. chill

Onthe bottomrung, interesting. I guess that holders of the mag 7 tech stocks didn't get that memo!

Thanks Nine, to be clear the asset allocation is current and very much of today. Normally I would hold government bonds but not now with spiralling debts. The Aegon High yield bond fund has smashed the performance of all gilt funds, Any equity/Fixed interest /cash split is risk profile dependent. I hold 5 years of expenditure in cash. I hold under 10% of my portfolio in direct equities.

Nine, it depends how much you put in Artemis global income. That fund on its own has global exposure and massive diversification. Aegon high yield bond works as a fixed interest holding in the current climate. Thereafter how much in gold? The reality is that POG is helping every mining company all of which have their nuances . I have GGP but pretty much all miners are rising (my Jupiter gold and Silver ISA has doubled in less than a year). GGP has its own opportunities and challenges but the sector is rising strongly. A bit of a no brainer to cast a wide net and enjoy the ride.

Huncher, of course! However, if you have shorted and are standing in the way of an avalanche of cash over the coming weeks do you get run over or cash out?