Member Info for Sageman

I seriously think that some people would be better off down the bookies or in a casino as they have no concept of what it means to invest. This is an active market. If the analysts already had the numbers they would price accordingly and not sell at a discount. The fact is that they have one quarter to analyse and many will not invest due to their investment mandate. Individuals have no such restriction. We can do our own research and either buy or sell. I have done mine and I am happy that the drilling program will extend the mine life . So we should soon get quarterly results and drill results. The analysts will buy or sell when they see the numbers. So actually guys it is simple. If you believe that the drilling and results will be good just buy and wait . If not sell. But in the meantime stop embarrassing yourselves with comments that reveal that you have done no research and are waiting for the 4.30 race at Kempton,

Gold remains comfortably over $3000. Actually above $3300 which means that GGP are continuing to bank more money than budgeted for. We have now traded on ASX for 2 weeks. IMHO things are still settling. However, the ASX institutions have the same issues as the U.K. ones. They await data. We have only had one quarter of data. The next 3 months will be data rich .Enjoy

PJ, I think that operations and POG aside what you are missing is that GGP will have forced buyers. Index trackers who have no option but to replicate the ASX100 index. The index is rebased quarterly but a number of managers start to build in anticipation. We have currently had less than a full week of trading this needs to settle down but, I believe that the Aussie’s hold the 3rd highest amount of pension funds in the world. You also have a number of quasi trackers where managers will replicate much of an index and try to produce alpha with a small part of the fund (circa 20%). The Aussie’s are starting from a position of holding zero GGP so they need to get buying.

some peoples *** packets include a dysfunctional calculator. 160 bopd x 365 days x average $75 price per barrel = circa $4.38m.

not a great deal but not $170k either. what is desperately needed is increased production combined with a higher pog and getting our hands on the o/s 30% revenue.

Ian , I get that but say your costs are £1.50 and your sales prices is £2. Profit is 50p. If sales price is £3 profits treble. However, if you thought that the sales price would revert to £2 or below you wouldn’t revalue the company and all its stock at £3. You would get an uptick on the company value to reflect the extra cash made whilst the sales price was elevated. This is why the price of miners always lags the commodity price. The whole gold mining community awaits to see actual figures from this elevated POG price period and whether POG will remain elevated.

The ASX100 entry point is AUD 1.7bn. So we are destined for the top 100 (not just the 200). The gold mining sector always lags the gold price because the results need to come through to be analysed and for analysts to be confident of the POG to be long enough to have an impact . GGP benefits to a greater extent than most because the strong POG has coincided with strong production and analysts projections of expensive borrowing/dilution being replaced with cash in bank. Add in Telfer mine life extension and our drilling and the GGP current price is no spike. For me the next 3-4 months should see us run to 500-600 (per analysts 29 p projections). This should be easy yards - due to numbers, institutional tracker fund buying, drill results etc. The scenario thereafter is positive based on Bamps research but it would not surprise me if having obtained 600 we remain there for many months (in the absence of stronger POG and certainty of Telfer and Hav simultaneous production ). All IMHO . GLA

FWIW Berkshire Hathaway holds circa 40 stocks so Warren Buffet does diversify but with a well researched clear focus. I also started my own company and that is a risk but investing in yourself is very different to investing in others. AIM is littered with lifestyle companies treating shareholders as suckers, raise after raise , broken promises , dilution and shareholders endlessly needing to average down ( investing more than originally planned) to have a hope of getting out on a spike. I normally hold no more than 2.5% of my holdings in a company ( that would translate to 40 stocks just like Warren). I like GPP and have allowed it to get to 7.5%. If you use an adviser they would recommend diversifying but the majority of the advice would be around tax efficiency. Advisers these days are several times more qualified and regulated than the Wild West days of the 80’s and pre- RDR (December 2012).

There are some walking 4 letter words who have infested this board. In a free country they are welcome to their opinion. However, those people that attack well researched and valued posters like Bamps deserve nothing but contempt. The other posters that really irritate are those who show up, can’t be bothered to read any RNS’s and expect others to put it on a plate for them. I find myself wanting to call them all Rick but spelt with a silent P…!!!

FWIW I believe that it is not just GGP that needs to re-rate but the entire mining sector, particularly producing mines. Mining is expensive and many companies have debts and like GGP have forecasted CAPEX for mine development. The impact of POG above $3000 is massive in a fixed cost business (especially when combined by lower energy costs and successful mining). It isn’t just GGP who have been able to stash cash or in the case of other miners reduce debt. As we go into Q3 I expect that there will be numerous results beats to the upside and resultant re-rating. My expectation is 500-600 as we enter AsX200at the end of the quarter (or perhaps the 100). Actually not ramping as it is in line with the 29p (580) broker forecast. POG would need to stay north of $3000 and some good news from the drilling (as forecast by Bamps) would do nicely. GLA

Not sure what these buys and sells are. The RNS clearly states that the share is suspended and will not trade on any bourse until 1pm Sydney time tomorrow

The share is suspended today whilst the conversions etc are processed. Different platforms have different systems and timeframes so only fair that they suspend for a day to give everyone's trading platforms time. There is no trading today at all. It kicks off tomorrow at 1pm Sydney time and 4am London time. Until then nothing to say other than that gold is positive but others miners off a little today. Hopefully we will wake up tomorrow with a smile having seen positive action on the ASX.

Going to the moon. I agree that they are going to need a lot of money and that when the cross listing was planned I believe that Shaun did it with a view to future cash raising. However, things have changed. At the end of this Q we will have circa 700m Aussie $. We are stashing cash at a time when we were projected to be borrowing. I think you need to read the RNS’s!

It should say it isn’t just GGP who have been the subject of the analysts using a low historical POG but the entire sector. If you increase POG by $1000 per oz across the sector profits soar. The whole sector needs a re-rate.

I think that the material point though is that Telfer will be producing long after the original period expected producing revenue and funding for HAV when the analysts were expecting us to be borrowing. Debt free was not on anyone’s radar. The other major factor is that the whole gold mining sector needs to be re-rated and with it GGP. The sector has high debts. It is just GGP who have had their revenues forecast using POG at $2000 -$2500. The impact of Basel 3 making gold a tier 1 asset for central banks etc from 1st July is a game changer for POG. With fixed costs adding $1000 per oz in terms of sales long term means that a major re-rate is needed. I am very positive for gold miners and GGP in particular. Enjoy

Rarely have I read such drivel! At the end of June Net of placing we will have circa 700m Aussie $ in the bank. We are banking circa 3.5m Aussie dollars per day. So Telfer will fund HAV. But the real kicker comes when HAV and Telfer produce in tandem perhaps 500-600 Thousand OZ per year. Given gold will be a TIER 1 asset from 1st July (per Basel 3) POG will remain strong. If you want to get excited run numbers with POG at $4k and $5k. We are debt free. What is also lost is that the gold mining sector as a whole needs to re-rate. The valuations are still built using POG at $2000-$2500 and companies saddled with debt.

Thanks Element, much appreciated. So Au $ circa 1bn in which case we are more than 50% funded post this Q figures. When/if we do need to borrow it will be less than estimated and for a shorter period. FWIW (and this is for other investors) in a post Basel 3 world. Keep it to yourself but run some figures on $3500, $4000 , $4500 POG. It gets very interesting. My 20bn MCAP mentioned earlier assumes a healthy cash balance and Shaun maxing the development of our existing assets. From here a 5-10bn MCAP is easily doable , enjoy the ride.

I have been searching for details regarding the expected costs to bring HAV into production.? I have seen figures of circa 1bn. But is the £,$ or Aussie Dollars? It is probable that by the end of June (including placing proceeds) we will have circa 700m Aussie $ . I await the new feasibility study but any knowledgeable input would be welcome. Thanks in anticipation.

Correction - £20bn not million lol

Some interesting posts this am, I would just say to novice investors that GGP is a unicorn. The so called long term investors here actually got lucky. Why do you think that The experts and Newmont acted as they did? I had a punt some time ago more so it stayed on my watch list. I piled in once I saw what what was happening to POG , Telfer mine life and increased production having done my own figures and reassured by Bamps. What is normal is that PI’s get spiked. A brilliant opportunity is discovered. The suckers then pile in. Then a placing, then another, then another. The dilution means that by the time it comes into production you are 85% down. LTH here are typically only in profit because they had to average down thus making their exposure increasingly extreme. People have got lucky. Once you realise that GGP is extremely rare the trick is to ride it (it will continue to rise) . Then take your money and invest tax efficiently and diversified. Paying down debt is also rarely stupid. Matty’s tale is very typical. He took profits from here and…you guessed it…lost 85% on the next one. I have not seen an opportunity like GGP in 20 years - Mcap possibly £20m by 2029 if HAV and Telfer are producing in tandem and POG remains strong. GLA

Electric, interesting but journalists can get it wrong. This should be in an RNS before it is in any newspaper.