Member Info for rustybucket

I need to look at the one relating to dividends. Will do that later, but my opinion, well documented, we can't afford it. !!!

Hi Kenj, the post wasn't aimed at you, you have been realistic the whole timescale, its the get rich quick brigade who it was aimed at. I have to admit, since we had, a couple of differences of opinion, in the early days, I must admit, I have agreed with the majority of your posts.

I don't want to dwell on the issue of the bonds, as I believe the company will have taken out call options at the beginning so shouldn't be an issue. My take on it, you can correct me if you think I am wrong, is. On maturity company can repay the bonds. At par. If we repay, I do not think we will have to pay one penny more than what we borrowed. Or they can covert at the conversion price, which should be secured by POG, using the call option.

That is my interpretation, I am open to be corrected, but maybe a question for the board at question time, is a simple explanation of the convertible options at maturity only without the jargon.

Please lets stop the anger about the convertible bonds, they are at a higher price that the original convertible bonds and were done when the share price was less than 10p. If the prevailing share price was 8p no body would be concerned, so the bondholders ( at the moment have got a good deal ) well everybody who owned shares at the time of the rights issue, had the opportunity to buy shares at 5p, and for a small time afterwords, BELOW 5P.

The coupon the bonds ( in my opinion ) is quite high, but , this company has a guarantee for IRC, $500 Million of other bonds to renegotiate and at the moment is not rolling in cash, as, as I have posted before would have bought TEMI with loose change.

Unless I am mistaken it would seem rather foolish at this moment in time to even think of dividends, or share buybacks. Make as much as possible, buy the rest of TEMI with cash, then we can process more of our own ore keeping all the profit for ourselves, and would then need less concentrate putting ourselves in a much much stronger position.

Paying money out, when we need it, in my opinion is not a good use of our finances. Normally, I like share buybacks, But, at this moment I do not think we are in the position to even consider it. All my opinion.

Price has peaked, not a chance, the market capitalisation is peanuts. If they keep making profits then people HAVE to smell the coffee, and take notice.

As always I use the work IF. !!!

We were already making profits, Hopefully the News Corp deal can increase those, as ever, I use the word HOPEFULLY !!

For the filter button, so we don't see his, hers, or its garbage. It makes the world a nicer place to live in,

However I do appreciate the people who try to counter the one sided tirade aimed against the company. Thank you, one and all.

Share buy back is only any use if you have plenty spare cash. We need to keep as much cash as possible to a, buy Temi in cash, and b, start accumulating to repay at least some of the bonds maturing in 2022, If we can PROVE, we are making good profits then any further bond issue should be art lower rates, unless of course they look at other ways of refinancing this, such as rights issue. I also do not think its a frugal policy to even think of dividends YET. My opinion only.

The big problem with IRC, Is they always seem to sell their ORE, at below, the prevailing market rates, and just like POG, do not advise the price they are selling at because of " commercial reasons".

My take on this is, sell it to someone who is going to pay the prevailing price, stop selling at a discount, and make some money !!!

Because of the corona virus, companies were given an option to delay results for up to 3 weeks.

Great not having to read the trolls crap.

Kenj very interesting post about the interest rate payable. Once POG gets their house in order you would think that going forward, they will be able to benefit from lower rates. ( Hopefully ) Or if we take what aimtitan says, just repay them from the loose change of the 13 billion pound company.

All this about third party concentrate. My opinion ( and , its only my opinion, the price of third party concentrate will have some correlation to the prevailing gold price. I would expect that if gold price goes up the price we pay for concentrate will also go uo. And vice versa, so I don't believe that third party concentrate production will ever bring in the profit some on here are wanting and expecting.

I believe thats why they wanted to buy the rest of TEMI. And are we not going to be processing from Temi towards the end of the year anyway. ?

Hi CurlyKev, nothing to stop them doing that. They can also use them for purchases in the future, offering shares instead of cash. And if they are very flush with cash, they can cancel them meaning less shares in issue.

Lots of options with the shares.

Exactly Kenj, I remember reading the results of I believe Polymetal. Clear and concise. Then I looked at Pogs, and though, What ???

it looks to me as if Pavel thinks he has the authority to do what he wants when he wants. He doesn't, thats why you have shareholders. I wonder, when we eventually get out of the coronavirus world, whether the company will be challenged around their opaqueness.

Well aim titan if your theories made sense, I wouldn't need to write so much. Short enough for you ?

aimtitan, part of your post reproduced.

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$0.37, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is.

The most optimistic Petropavlovsk analyst has a price target of US$0.51 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$0.21. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business. Have you not advised them of your forecasts of £5 per share ?

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Petropavlovsk is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to grow 53%. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 4.8% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.4% per year. Not only are Petropavlovsk’s revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

Its all well and good talking about revenue growth, but the figures, are based on where we were before, so there HAS TO BE rapid growth from where we were. Pox hub operational, Gold price high, benefit of lower rouble and oil prices. But not to anywhere near the levels you are talking about.

Now lets get one thing straight again, I don't want to over pessimistic about this share, and posting negative stuff, but sometimes you need to be realistic about things.

I believe that since results people are realising that things are not quite the same as are made out,

Even today, we have a contradiction, The telegraph saying they have had a discussion with Pavel, and Pavel saying X, only for the company to deny it. Now I don't know whether its a journalist having a conversation and adding some stuff on to make it a bit more like a headline, Or the company suddenly having to backtrack as its not just Pavel that counts. Possibly a bit of both. But again, I would suggest there has been some conversations. Never a dull moment with POG. Always something bubbling.

oops, sorry, Freddie2 was rushing out, should really have waited and checked my post before going out, or waited till I was back before posting. Never mind, not the biggest mistake of my life, thanks for correcting. lol.

If this, if that, if this,

If my uncle had a ..... he would have been my auntie.

Bloody hell this is POG, we had all the euphoria, then we had results and it was like a damp squid, people waiting at the bus stop to get off at the next stop, providing of course, they got on initially.

Lets get a few things straight, We didn't have enough money to buy TEMI outright with cash, we have the guarantee associated with IRC , The 2 bonds issues, the largest one due in a couple of years, I have said before I will say again, I don't forsee any issues with that as I can not see any reason why they would not convert. I strongly believe this share price will rise strongly, just not to the extremes some think. As always my opinion. I hope I am wrong.

Aimtitan, you need to consult your doctor, or maybe someone a bit more qualified. That would give a market cap of 13 billion. You are having a giraffe, as much as I would like it to happen.

Aim titan you are living in cloud cuckoo land £2.50 company. Not a chance. That would give a market cap of about 9 billion. Ridiculous. My opinion only. If Pog gets to a £1 by 2024 it would be doing well. You have to take into account the shares in issue, and the shares that could be issued if bondholders convert.

Hi Kenj that was a slip about the 2022 and convertibles, I actually meant the $500m bonds.

I am not too worried about the convertibles as I think they will convert anyway, so although that gives extra shares it takes $125m of debt from us. I have tried reading up on bond issues and it looks like it shouldn't cost us too much as they will have done the issue using call options ( I think ). And in 4 years, if they do things right, this should be a totally different animal.