Member Info for RS2002

Early-stage trial data on AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine due July 20 - Lancet

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-oxford-vaccine-lan/early-stage-trial-data-on-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-due-july-20-lancet-idUKKCN24G2PL

I expect we'll continue to see a rise in European shares tomorrow and Friday leading to next week.

The sentiment is turning and it feels like the market is rearing for a rally.

2020 has 37 big production, big studio backed movies lined-up.

The average cost of a movie is $70-90 million so to put that into perspective, studios have invested over 3 billion and NEED to see the movies released for theatrical viewing to cover their costs and make profit.

What about VoD? The studios don't need cinema, they can just release it on Digital channels, right?

WRONG - the sums just don't add up.

If Trolls 2 is anything to go by, whilst Digital sales over 3 months were in the region of $95m, the movie DID NOT make any profit, given the movie cost $90m to make, then the further $50-90m invested in marketing and promition, film analysts (source: Hollywood Reporter) claim that Trolls 2 will take years to break even, let alone make a profit.

The VoD release model just DOESN'T make money, alone - they absolutely RELY on theatrical release.

July
------
Russell Crowe's Unhinged maintains its 31st July release date the same date as UK and US Cineworld re-opens

August
-----------
The Broken Hearts Gallery
The Empty Man
Tenet
Greenland
Antebellum
Mulan
Bill & Ted Face the Music
The New Mutants
Spell

September
----------------
Honest Thief
A Quiet Place Part II
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It
The King's Man

October
-------------
Wonder Woman 1984
Death on the Nile
Candyman
Connected
Snake Eyes
Those Who Wish Me Dead
Fatale

November
----------------
Black Widow
Clifford the Big Red Dog
Deep Water
James Bond: 007 - No Time To Die
Pixar's Soul
Happiest Season
Voyagers

December
---------------
Free Guy
Samaritan
Coming 2 America
Dune
West Side Story
The Croods 2
Top Gun: Maverick
News of the World
Escape Room 2

Some posted a comment about the industry going for regional releases rather than global ones. This would help a lot.

Another thing to keep in mind is that whilst California is a large state that is currently locked-down, it represents 15% of Cineworld/Regal cinemas. The other 80-85% is still set to open as their states have controlled their numbers enough not to mandate further lock-downs.

I believe Cineworld will continue to open 31 July as Russell Crow's Unhinged is set to release on the same day and it would be great to test the waters on audiences and figures. Tenent could use that as a yardstick to gauge footfall to maintain their release date of 10 August or defer it.

This is why Cineworld made the right decision to defer their opening.

1. Save on operational costs
2. Continue to receive furlough support
3. Await movie releases to back a re-opening.

Odeon opened too soon and then u-turned on many of their cinemas opening.

Cineworld and Vue got their adjustment right - the opening is in-line with new movie releases and we have some great blockbusters lined up which, timed with school summer holidays, will see cinemas packed.

Unhinged (July 31/Solstice Studios)
The Broken Hearts Gallery (August 7/Sony)
Tenet (August 12/Warner Bros.)
Greenland (August 14/STX Entertainment)
Antebellum (August 21/Lionsgate)
Mulan (August 21/Disney)
Bill & Ted Face The Music (August 28/Orion)
The New Mutants (August 28/Disney)
A Quiet Place Part II (September 4/Paramount)

Research on cinema audiances by age in the UK is publically available:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/296240/age-and-gender-of-the-cinema-audience-uk/

It reveals that 82% of the UK cinema audience is under the age of 45.

The under 45 age group, to date have the lowest numbers of mortality in the UK concerning covid-19. Less than 500 amongst a population of 65 million, gives a percentage of mortality from covid-19 at 0.000007%.

The age group we have seen most at risk of infection is 65+, this is a demographic that makes up less than 8% of the UK cinema audience. If, for arguments sake, they were to adopt a high risk averse approach to cinema or any leisure activities for that matter, I don't beleive they would make a significant enought dent to revenue streams to warrant a great concern.

I'm afraid your preference; anecdotal, in NO WAY represents the majority.

Huge milestone and proof that the virus spread can be contained and business can resume.

Bloomberg, 12th July 2020

New York City, once the epicenter of the nation’s coronavirus outbreak, has just reported its first day with zero confirmed or probable virus deaths since the pandemic hit New York State.

The milestone came Sunday in initial data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

It marked the end of a four-month stretch since the city reported its first Covid-19 fatality on March 11. The confirmed daily death count hit its height on April 7 at 597. Another 216 people were reported likely to have died from the virus despite no positive laboratory tests that day.

The government has given their support in Gyms opening on 25/07; this is a clear message to the public that sitting in an air-conditioned auditorium with filters and fogging machines installed, is a safe activity. So much so, they mandated cinemas could open as early as 04/07.

Couple this with their push for the public to eat out to save the restaurant and food business, will see an increase in footfall and almost certainity that many will be enjoying cinema days and nights out - a meal (subsidised by the government) and a cinema ticket (15% off the price thanks to the VAT cut) tells you cinemas are now a safe bet to invest in.

I disagree that shareholers are in the dark. They have been kept informed and this morning's RNS has re-iterated their position. They have even factored a worse case scenario, adding if Cineplex’s claim is successful, it would be limited to its costs and expenses incurred as part of the deal.

To use your anology of a car purchase, let us say you were debating the purcahse of a 1993 Blue Ford Fiesta. The condition of the sale was that the car was serviced and in working order. Unfortunately, the car has failed it's MOT and revealed that it needs a complete transmission overhaul. It's value is no only £500, would you want to pay £2000 for it if the conditions of the sale have changed? I certainly wouldn't.

At a worst, if I have to pay the seller £10 to re-advertise the sale of the car, I would consider that a saving of £1990.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cineplex-m-a-cineworld-grp/cineworld-plans-counter-claim-against-cineplex-over-scrapped-deal-idUSKBN2470OT

@ Jay, jus as well we had this statement from Cineworld, wouldn't you say?
"Cineworld terminated the Arrangement Agreement because Cineplex breached a number of its covenants under the Arrangement Agreement. Cineplex did not remedy these breaches when given the opportunity to do so. Cineworld is entitled to recover from Cineplex all damages and losses that it has suffered as a result of Cineplex's breaches and the Acquisition not proceeding, including its financing costs, advisory fees and other costs incurred. Cineworld intends to counter-claim against Cineplex for these damages and losses."

So

a) Cineplex breached several covenants
b) Cineplex were advised by Cineworld on the breaches and given an opportunity to resolve them
c) Cineplex failed to resolve the breaches
d) Cineworld will now file for damages and losses and a counter calim is on its way to Cineplex.

If I was a share holder in Cineplex, knowing that a counter-claim was coming from a giant like Cineworld who have irrefutable evidence of breaches, then it doesn't bode well for debt-stricken Cineplex.

@Jay, I'm afraid the law that prevails Mergers and Acquisitions is a lot more complicated than purchasing a used banger.
The integrity of the law will be maintained and we should hear more as it develops.

Just to remind you all again, Cineplex have to RE-FINANCE this month (July). They need to raise $250 million, if they don't it is going to be curtains for them.

Do you know of a legal challenge to this magnitude that has resolved in a month? No, I haven't either...

Asian markets (Shanghai composite) is up over 5%, too.

There is a bull sentiment returning.

Global markets are realising that despite the increase in Covid 19 infections, mortality is NOT linear.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which is index of the direction of economic trends in manufacturing and service sectors is also demonstrating positive signs of V shape recoveries.

@Jay look up the terms confidential and disclosure. When you're involved in a legal challenge you cannot give so much detail in the public domain. Cineworld have issued a LEGAL RNS that re-iterates their position.

Cineplex breached not ONE but SEVERAL - the key in in the text "breached a NUMBER of its convenants under the Arrangement Agreement. Cineplex did not remedy these BREACHES (plural again) when given the opportunity to do so".

It is as clear as the text it is presented - Cineplex failed on SEVERAL fronts and they are their masters of their own demise.

The market is reading this as well and responding accordingly.

The BOD of Cineworld have re-iterated their position such is the confidence in the legal response.

They will have had a swarm of corporate lawyers advising them and if they can re-iterate with such confidence that Cineplex breached their terms, then I will take confidence from a legal RNS confirming that position.

Cineplex have to refinance this month - this doesn't bode well for them and I suspect they will default on their creditors.

I'm inclined to agree with the earlier post that you cannot reveal too much detail on your legal response.
The fact of the matteris that

a) Cineplex was valued at $2.1bn Canadian dollars - it now worth a quarter of that ~500million
b) Cineworld would have paid a 4 x premium had Cineplex not breached their terms of the deal - thus it is a blessing Cineplex did
c) Cinexplex are at the brink of collapse and desperate. They need to refinance, this month - July and I expect they will default and won't have enough funds to pursue a legal challenge. If they do they risk the counter claim from Cineworld which would finish them off.

Lots are posting negative sentiment, eager to get an entry but with Regal cinemas opening - 80% of them in the US in 4 weeks, it would be foolish to let them go when we are so close to this point.

Good luck, all - FTSE is set for a rally.

1. Infection cases may be going up but mortality rates are reducing
2. Cinemas/Theatres are ALREADY opening. Cineworld may have deferred their opening to 31/07 in line with movie releases but competitors are already taking bookings, I'm visiting Odeon this weekend, myself.
3. National lockdowns are are thing of the past, each region will operate it's own review and decision to re-introduce a lockdown or take measures to bring their infection numbers down.
4. The fundamentals of Cineworld remain true - good liquidity and reserved to keep them going until the end of the year in the worst case scenario, they remain closed (unlikely given their staggered approach).

· Unites States: July 31st
· United Kingdom: July 31st
· Poland: July 3rd (open)
· Czech Republic: June 26th (open)
· Slovakia: June 26th (open)
· Israel: July 9th (next week)
· Bulgaria: July 3rd (today)
· Hungary and Romania: to be confirmed (anticipated for week of July 3rd)

It would be great if we could keep this board on-topic and refrain from personal attacks.
Thanks, all.

You're correct, it does appear to be a 2018 T&C document however this is one that is referenced on Cineworld's site when they cite clause 15.2:

15.2 Cineworld will not be liable or responsible for any failure to perform, or delay in performance, that is caused by events outside its reasonable control (Force Majeure Event), including any act, event,non-happening, omission or accident which may be due to the following: (iii) Fire, explosion, adverse weather, snow fall, ice, storm, flood, earthquake, subsidence, epidemic or other natural disaster

Their site themselves state that they will continue to take annual membership fees and will seek to credit an extension of time. Thus it is reasonsable (as you say without knowing the actual membership numbers in the state of CA) to accept they will still be in receipt of membership fees.

Cineworld have published their FAQ here: https://www.cineworld.co.uk/static/en/uk/blog/cineworld-cinemas-closure-faq-coronavirus-covid-19

Correct @HeresHopin. Annual memberships will continue to be taken and additional time afforded to extend the period.

Regal Cinema Source Here: https://www.regmovies.com/static/en/us/theatre-list
Cineworld T&Cs on Unlimited Here: https://www.cineworld.co.uk/xmedia-cw/repo/unlimited-card-terms-and-conditions-valid-from-12-12-2017-until-23-05-2018-inclusive.pdf