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Agree @ Moola, if the Cineworld twitter and facebook feed is anything to go by, the demand is there and Cineworld are announcing their booking is going live possibly Monday, next week.

The data on the bookings will be interesting to read to establish demand.

That seems premature given Cineworld, England are set to open their doors in ONE week's time and importantly, start generating revenue through the re-activation of their UNLIMITED membership scheme.

July/August is absolute prime time for Cinema and whilst some films have been delayed, not cancelled or exclusively pushed to VOD, you risk the window closing on you before the price ticks up.

The UK and EUROPE is doing a great job keeping their Coronavirus numbers contained as is Asia, if the USA can do the same as data is suggesting some degree of plateauing, this could easily recover.

It's simple logic and proven.

Increased Retail footfall = increased Leisure footfall.

The market will pick-up on this and react accordingly.

Fantastic news.

The Bank of England have stated a V recovery is predicted.

This will be positive news for the FTSE

Opening for 31st July is confirmed.

Russell Crowe’s Unhinged is releasing the same day and Cineworld will be taking bookings from next week, all expect Monday for their booking system to be updated.

Now is the only real time to take a position and await an opening in 7 days with what one can expect will be a lot of media attention.

There will be no more national lockdowns. Once Cineworld opens in England, next week, it will continue to remain open and Unlimited Card membership will be re-activated and a nice cash flow will return to Cineworld.

With the VAT cut from 20% to 5% and the governments push to encourage patrons attending leisure and eating out, the narrative is clear.

Cinema is here to stay.

Numbers published by the Office For National Statistics show 917 flu and pneumonia deaths were registered for the week ending on July 10.

In comparison, in England and Wales, 366 people died that week after testing positive for Covid-19 – the lowest number of deaths involving the virus in the last 16 weeks and a 31.2% decrease compared with the previous week, which saw 532 deaths.

There is a reason we are coming out of a locked down state with precautions to take.

Source: https://metro.co.uk/2020/07/22/nearly-three-times-people-dying-flu-pneumonia-coronavirus-13021417/

I’d love to see Harrison Ford and Tommy Lee Jones’ The Fugitive at the cinema as it was a 1993 movie so was before my time.

Thrillers where cat and mouse play out and some of the best movies given their sheer pace and suspense. It’s why I think Russell Crowe’s Unhinged will do very well when it is released next week at Cineworld’s opening in England.

That heading should read 2020. There are so many movies available this year to keep cinema interest booming.

*where

We know studios don’t make any profit getting a big movie on VoD if Trolls2 is anything to go by.

Trolls made $95m in the 3 weeks it was on demand during the peak of lockdown. This didn’t cover the $90m and the further $60m in marketing and distribution costs. Analysts state that it will struggle to break even let alone make profit.

Source: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/trolls-world-tour-stars-want-pay-but-will-studio-make-any-money-1293394

Studios have stated there is NO way Tenet would make it to VoD. It doesn’t capture the experience and from a return perspective would cripple them financially.

Read: They ABSOLUTELY rely on cinema and theatrical release. We know this because of the box office sales reaching $33-45 billion a year. It’s wear studios and the industry make their money.

Fortunately 2020 has enough movies lined up to see a rapid RECOVERY for cinemas including Cineworld.

July
------
Russell Crowe's Unhinged maintains its 31st July release date the same date as UK and US Cineworld re-opens

Batman, Dark Knight franchise (anniversary)
Interstellar (anniversary)
Inception (anniversary)

August
-----------
The Broken Hearts Gallery
The Empty Man
Tenet (pending new date)
Greenland
Antebellum
Mulan (pending new date)
Bill & Ted Face the Music (VoD and Cinema release)
The New Mutants
Spell

September
----------------
Honest Thief
A Quiet Place Part II
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It
The King's Man

October
-------------
Wonder Woman 1984
Death on the Nile
Candyman
Connected
Snake Eyes
Those Who Wish Me Dead
Fatale

November
----------------
Black Widow
Clifford the Big Red Dog
Deep Water
James Bond: 007 - No Time To Die
Pixar's Soul
Happiest Season
Voyagers

December
---------------
Free Guy
Samaritan
Coming 2 America
Dune
West Side Story
The Croods 2
Top Gun: Maverick
News of the World
Escape Room 2

Cineworld during school holidays and accompanying date and dinner nights out thanks to more leisure activities is perfectly placed to capture increased footfall and sales.

It’s current SP is a steal.

Poor indepth, I’ve kept him up overnight attempting to deramp. He’s nervous. Why?

BB-rated bonds seem to default at about 2% per year, on average, and B-rated bonds at about 4% per year. Of course, rates can temporarily be much higher: even 8% to 10% per year at times for B-rated debt. Remember, default does not mean total loss though; about 40% of defaulted debt is eventually recovered. So reckon about a 1.2% annual long-term loss rate for BB-rated, and about 2.5% annual for B-rated.

The reality is virtually every industry has had their rating hit, because of the epidemic. What we know is Cineworld have, if we follow Fitch, a default likelihood of 4% on average and in extreme circumstances without intervention, 8-10%.

Ask yourself. Do you want to invest in a company who stand a 90-96% chance of sustainability and seeing their debt bonds mature and repaid to the 4-10% chance it won’t.

Fitch within the link, state that Cineworld's scale and cash-generative business model are supportive of a rapid recovery if cinema attendance levels return to normal.

With so much upside and an improved cash position that means no rights issue is required/dilution and an opening in the U.K. and US planned, bringing in Unlimited cars membership, do you see Cineworld remaining at 53-59p or north of 100p?

I know this is going 100p+ the fundamentals and it’s prior trading history don’t lie.

Source: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-cineworld-at-b-off-rwn-outlook-negative-15-07-2020

Cineworld is no stranger to being at the 50s range but to give you an idea at just how rapidly it can go up. The following timeline paints a picture of a very fast escalating turn around.

Within 5 trading days we have witness:

22 May 2020 = 58p
26 May 2020 = 69p close
27 May 2020 = 77p close
28 May 2020 = 102p intra-day high

Some important FACTS about their cash position.

- Cineworld have ENOUGH liquidity to keep them afloat until July 2021 (12 months) should the worst case scenario manifest and they remain closed until Q1-Q2 2021.

- Cineworld had a turn-over of $4bn in 2019 and after setting all debts made a healthy profit of $0.2bn - this was realised as 9-10% dividend paid to shareholders prior to Covid-19.

- Cineworld have AVOIDED $2.3bn in debt thanks to Cineplex breaching their debt covenants

- THIRTY SEVEN (37) big budget Hollywood movies await to be screen this year and enough to spill over to 2021 to keep occupancy and ticket sales up.

-Under 45s make up the majority (80%) of cinema audiences and have the lowest Coronavirus mortality rates.

Fitch, the credit agency removed the RWN (Ratings Watch Negative) rating on Cineworld.

What does this mean?

In May 2020 - Fitch marked Cineworld to B- score WITH a RWN. The RWN reflected the impact of Cineworld's planned acquisition of Cineplex on existing terms, as well as the company's challenged liquidity position. The additional debt burden of the transaction was deemed to significantly heighten financial risks under the current circumstances.

We now have the news from Fitch in July that the RWN has been removed. They cite, removal of RWN follows Cineworld's improved liquidity position and cancellation of the company's intended acquisition of Cineplex. The issue of a USD250 million secured debt facility and a USD110 million increase in its revolving credit facility (RCF) have alleviated short-term cash risks.

All industries have seen share value rank, Cineworld represents a multi bagger in the making.

Opening in just 1 week in England and has many European locations running.

Stay tuned for the news when Regal, US will reopen. Just hope you’re not out before the next test to 100p+

This may appear as a ramp but the above are facts you can verify yourself. Don’t be fooled by shorters trying to push a negative sentiment.

Hollywood and movie making is a multi billion follower industry. Cinemas and exhibitions have survived the Spanish flu, two world wars and a number of recessions.

Now is the price to be buying or topping up. These prices won’t be around for much longer before they head north of 100p+

Great post @ Investroid.

AMC should be looked at as the benchmark; if they are planning a re-opening in August, enough time to witness a decline in Coronavirus cases in the USA and give studios sufficent time to plan their movies releases, this should give Cineworld CONFIDENCE in setting an opening of Regal.

I would like to see a state phased approach to opening which will encourage governors and states to get their numbers down to comfortable levels and witness how cinemas are operating to grant authority to proceed.

Remember, 75-80% of USA states are open to Cinemas - this coupled with the international market is more than enough to bring in money to studios who have a catalogue of 37 big budget movies.

This is a multi-bagger in the making for any savvy investor.

The phased re-opening in the UK is a smart strategy. They can assess performance, protocols and above all footfall with current listings to establishd emand. This will also drum up anticipation in other regions of the UK, Wales, Scotland and NI will be just as keen.

What we also have to appreciate is the Unlimited Card membership revenue that is fast returning.

Citadel Advisors LLC have reduced their short position from 0.70% to 0.61%.

It’s only a matter of time before more short positions close as the realisation that Europe, Asia aren’t seeing a second wave and American cases are beginning to plateau, if data from Arizona is anything to go by.

Source: https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/researcher-arizonas-covid-19-cases-are-plateauing-due-to-mask-mandates-physical-distancing

Really encouraging news that Cineworld are re-iterating their opening of Cineworld, England on 31 July and booking to commence from next week.

With school out for summer, restaurants open, Unhinged still set for release on the same day, Cineworld England can look forward to business again at what is usually the busiest season for cinema.

If Regal cinemas need to remain closed whilst America reduces their numbers, so be it. Cineworld has negotiated a reduction in costs with landlords and still has access to stimulus funds and government relief programmes.

https://mobile.twitter.com/cineworld/status/1285963520299892737

Tenet aside, there are THIRTY SEVEN (37) big budget movies lined up for this year, 2020 so Cinema certainly isn't banking exclusively on one movie.

If he's a good associate he'll be feeding back to his capital management fund that PI sentiment remains positive and short positions need to be closed at the earliest.

@dreammachine you have just articulated the risk profile of virtually every business facing this current epidemic.
This comes down to risk appetite and the risk vs reward. Investors are savvy enough to know that the fundamentals for Cineworld are solid; it has sufficient liquidity to keep it afloat to July 2021 (12 months) in the worst case it remains closed, means it can weather this storm.

We also know from previous experience that this has an opportunity to take off at an alarming rate.

You’ve got to be in it to win it, as they say.

Good post, Moola.

If NATO is pushing for states to operate their own release to entice movie goers, it should be embraced.

This could work well for Cineworld as their US Regal presence operates 564 movie theatres in the US. Within 46 of the 50 US states. Discounting California, Texas and Arizona to allow time for a reduction in new infection cases - 80% of Regal Cineworld cinemas are still eligible to OPEN. This supports NATO that there is enough of a domestic market to support new releases.

Given Cineworld hasn't announced an update to suggest another delay in re-opening, we have to expect that Cineworld maintains its 31st July date; just 10 days time.

Looking at Box Office sales, studios still stand to make a good return with an international audience and a partial US audience if their box office sales for 2019 are anything to go by.

2019 World Wide Total $33,020,952,785.00 ($33bn)
USA Total $11,348,000,492.00 (34% of sales) ($11.3bn)
Foreign Total $21,672,952,293.00 (66% of sales) ($21.7bn)

Top 5 movies:

Rank 1 Avengers: Endgame
World Wide Sales = $2,797,800,564
USA Sales = $858,373,000 (30%)
Foreign Sales = 1,939,427,564 (70%)

Rank 2 The Lion King
World Wide Sales = $1,656,943,394
USA Sales = $543,638,043 (33%)
Foreign Sales = 1,113,305,351 (67%)

Rank 3 Frozen II
World Wide Sales = $1,450,026,933
USA Sales = $477,373,578 (33%)
Foreign Sales = $972,653,355 (67%)

Rank 4 Spider-Man: Far from Home
World Wide Sales = $1,131,927,996
USA Sales = 390,532,085 (34%)
Foreign Sales = $741,395,911 (66%)

Rank 5 Captain Marvel
World Wide Sales = $1,128,274,794
USA Sales = $426,829,839 (38%)
701,444,955 (62%)

Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2019/