Member Info for RS2002

Arizona reported 21,700 total new infections from July 11 to 17, a 13.2 percent decrease from the 25,000 total new cases reported from July 4 to 10, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

The numbers are going to reduce - America just needs a few more weeks for the trend to appear.

Yes @Damo, that is what I’m alluding to.

After long last, Trump and his Twitter account push the face mask to be worn.

He even threw the word patriot which should appeal to the electorate.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1285299379746811915?s=20

Here’s a thought.

If the regional release process from studios takes off across the international scene, could studios look to support regional release, domestically within the US?

The staggered re-opening of Cineworld is NOT a new revelation.

We have to appreciate that Cineworld issued their reopening schedule on 16 June as follows:

· Poland: July 3rd
· Czech Republic: June 26th
· Slovakia: June 26th
· Israel: July 9th
· Bulgaria: July 3rd
· Hungary and Romania: July 3rd

Given the U.K. theatres maintain their opening on 31 July, in time for Unhinged, we should also appreciate that the U.S still has access to the $2 Trillion stimulus bill.

National Association of Theatre Owners( NATO) stated that the bill’s provisions included a $454 billion loan guarantee fund that provides access to capital allowing movie theaters to pay their fixed assets while they are unable to generate revenue through normal operations.

Also we should appreciate what Mooky (CEO) was quoted with regards to costs.

About 70 per cent of our costs are variable. If we don’t sell movies, we don’t pay for the movies. If we don’t sell Pepsi, we don’t pay for the Pepsi,” Mr Greidinger said. “Second, a lot of our temporary manpower, if we don’t invite them to work if the cinemas are closed, we are also not paying them.”

Warner Bros. chairman Toby Emmerich said in a statement. “We are not treating Tenet like a traditional global day-and-date release, and our upcoming marketing and distribution plans will reflect that.”

Is this a suggestion we may see Europe inc the U.K as well as Africa and (Austral) Asia getting an earlier release?

We know that Unhinged was released in Europe and Germany saw this on 16 July, could Warner Bros be suggesting a release approach that will see Asia and Europe rewarded for controlling their numbers? They could even showcase the movie in Canada.

Couldn't agree more.

The irony is a treatement, not an immunisation has sent Synairgen PLC climbing 500% today.

If Trump and his southern states can get a handle on their new cases, this news will be appreciated more and serve as a catalyst.

Like others, it's a holding pattern and reading the market.

The fundamentals still stand.

They have sufficient credit and if they don’t use it all they can certainly see it is paid back.

You will note the news was positive as the share price dramatically rose upon this news.

2020 has THIRTY SEVEN (37) big Hollywood budget movies lined up that go beyond Tenet.

As others have cited, Unhinged is resolute in holding it’s debut on 31/07.

Beyond that you have but limited:

- Wonder Woman 1984
- 007 James Bond: No Time to Die
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Dune
- Bill & Ted 3
- The Personal History of David Copperfield
- Mulan
- A Quiet Place II
- The Hitmans Wifes Bodyguard
- Kingsman
- The Conjuring
- Bios (Tom Hanks)
- Candyman

Too many to list.

Cinema certainly doesn’t rest it’s laurels on one release.

Just to be clearer, Cine have a revolving credit line available. They can tap into it where required. Presently they don’t anticipate requiring the full amount so it remains revolving and available.

Fitch Ratings, this month upgraded the credit score of Cineworld (removing the RWN) and stated that Cineworld has enough liquidity to keep them afloat to July 2021 in the worst case scenario that cinemas don't open this year.

AMC (owners of Odeon) closed 2019 with a net debt of $4.75.
Cineworld (owners of Regal) closed 2019 with a net debt of $3.5bn and have improved their capital position significantly

It is a fair assessment to say Cineworld can weather the Coronavirus storm better than its adversary, AMC.

... I was reading through the replies; pop-corn in hand, amazed that this subtle de-ramp was going unnoticed until MisterPrecedent replied.

A newbie to investing, throwing £50k into Cineworld, aware that upon the (expected positive) news from AstraZeneca this will spike and suggesting an exit for a meagre 14% return.

Investors are well aware of just how rapidly Cineworld can spike. We have seen it on a number of occasions and post viscerally in April and May.

7th April 2020 = Cineworld = 58p
9th April 2020 = 78p

22 May 2020 = 58p
26 May 2020 = 69p close
27 May 2020 = 77p close
28 May 2020 = 102p intra-day high

If the vaccine news is positive, read the market and assess the sentiment else you risk missing out on a huge return.

Some have already posted that the news we expect on Monday will be one to restore confidence in a multitude of industries, not just leisure.

*weeks

Pray tell, which Asian stock market was open Saturday morning?

Your position is clear. Let us await Monday to gather sentiment and direction.

Cineworld holders realise the value of their investment and if this means moving to a medium to long term, then so be it.

The risk is there with virtually all industries but the reward will be tremendous for those invested.

2 weds to opening, all going well.

Indepth is free to post on this BB but he has scored a huge own goal.

The poor fellow was up late last night, de-ramping away until 0200 in the morning.

Ask yourself, is this an informed man or the sign of a desperate man?

Why is he desperate?

Because Cineworld has refused to drop below 52p and now sits at 57p. Institutions are desperate for private investors to sell up so they can acquire your shares to close their short position as early as possible.

Every savvy investor is well aware of the impending AstraZeneca announcement due Monday, which was disclosed, thanks to Robert Preston, letting slip it was coming on Wednesday, this week.
Source: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-15/positive-news-is-coming-on-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-writes-robert-peston

AstraZeneca has seen a healthy surge as investors have been piling in, in readiness for the news.

Professor Gilbert who is leading the Oxford team and her Bloomberg piece was read by everyone and their dog and rightfully we are salivating at the news that awaits us. Gilbert has voiced remarkable confidence in her chances, saying the Oxford vaccine has an 80% probability of being effective in stopping people who are exposed to the novel coronavirus from developing Covid-19. She has said she could know by September. Asked by MPs in early July whether the world would have to struggle through the winter without a vaccine, Gilbert said, “I hope we can improve on those timelines and come to your rescue.” That quote is a teaser alright. A vaccine before winter this year!
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner

We shouldn't direct any vitriol to Indepth; he could very well be an associate at Adelphi Capital LLP or Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P, just one of a few capital management funds who have shorts lodged against Cineworld.

Asked what the short position was when we hit £1, 8th June it was 3.37%. So it has gone up 4.09% and sits at 7.46%, if you look at the prior history the short positions were only present during periods of prolonged uncertainty.
Source: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15FWH70/

Remember the FACTS:

- Cineworld have ENOUGH liquidity to keep them afloat until July 2021 (12 months) should the worst case scenario manifest and they remain closed until Q1-Q2 2021.

- Cineworld had a turn-over of $4bn in 2019 and after setting all debts made a healthy profit of $0.2bn - this has been realised as 9-10% dividend paid to shareholders prior to Covid-19.

- Cineworld have AVOIDED $2.3bn in debt thanks to Cineplex breaching their debt covenants

- THIRTY SEVEN (37) big budget Hollywood movies await to be screen this year and enough to spill over to 2021 to keep occupancy and ticket sales up.

- Movie production has resumed for Jurassic Park and Mission Impossible 7 and 8 as well as string of other movies.

This is a SCREAMING BUY - Don't let the shorters sha

There is no need to dilute the shares, there is sufficent liquidity to keep things going. Further, borrowing at current rates is so cheap given our low interest rates; this is really not a bridge Cineworld need to cross until Q1 2021, when they asses their books and publish their EOY 2020 results.

Between now and then is 6 months.

What I also found refreshing was Cineworld's early mention in their 2019 EOY results, where they stated they were already taking precautions against Covd-19:

"There can be no certainty as to the future impact of COVID-19 on the Group, however we are taking measures to ensure that we prepare our business for all possible eventualities."

That is a forward thinking BoD.

So you acknowledge that Cineworld has ENOUGH liquidity to keep them going until H1 2021, the very period that the analyst this thread is built upon, predicts US Cinemas will remain closed to.

Further with regards to Cineworld's B rating (junk) bonds, the typical default for bonds of this rating is 8%.

So when considering the risk to reward ratio, I'll happily take those odds of a 92% chance of the bonds settling.

Posting $8000 Million of debt to service (IFRS 16) is misleading at best. This is cost/debt attributed to operating leases.
Quoting this figure is redundant at this stage. Why? Cineworld have made it clear in an earlier issued RNS that they have negotiated capex postponement and cost reduction with the majority of their landlords - thus to quote this figure is stale and deliberate to push a negative sentiment.

Cineworld's Net Debt as of Dec 19 was $3.5bn - they in fact reduced this from $4.1bn when they took over Regal cinemas so were, pre-covid-19, taking the reduction of debt seriously.

Another thing to keep in mind is that their credit rating has improved since March 2020 - Fitch the credit rating agency REMOVED the Negative Ratings Watch (NRW) against Cineworld, this month citing, the removal of RWN follows Cineworld's improved liquidity position and cancellation of the company's intended acquisition of Cineplex. The issue of a USD250 million secured debt facility and a USD110 million increase in its revolving credit facility (RCF) have alleviated short-term cash risks.

I would say a cost saving of $2.3bn is a substantial saving. Their financial penalty is foreast at $36m, which is paltry in context to what their debt would have been had Cineplex not breached their debt covenants.

As for their remaining cash burn, Fitch are estimating it as $35-40m/month, this is an estimate, but provide some clarity stating the short-term liquidity crisis is averted. Cineworld increased its liquidity through an additional USD250 million of senior secured debt and increasing its RCF by USD110 million to USD573 million. It has also arranged with its RCF lenders for a waiver of its leverage covenants for June 2020 and an increase in its net debt-to-EBITDA covenant to 9.0x for the December testing date. The increase in liquidity modestly eases Cineworld's financial risks and provides an additional nine-to-10 month cash-burn capacity based on Fitch's estimates. This adds to the five-to-six months of liquidity that Cineworld retained when cinemas closed in mid- to late-March.

10 months + 6 months = 16 months from March so that is enough cash to keep Cineworld going to July 2021 if they had to keep closed.

Good post @ Investroid.

Hollywood has been pandering to Chinese audiences for years now as they are recognised as major consumers.

This bodes well for the future of cinema .

Great news - Fitch has removed the RWN rating on Cineworld.

What does this mean?

In May 2020 - Fitch marked Cineworld to B- score WITH a RWN. The RWN reflected the impact of Cineworld's planned acquisition of Cineplex on existing terms, as well as the company's challenged liquidity position. The additional debt burden of the transaction was deemed to significantly heighten financial risks under the current circumstances.

We now have the news from Fitch in July that the RWN has been removed. They cite, removal of RWN follows Cineworld's improved liquidity position and cancellation of the company's intended acquisition of Cineplex. The issue of a USD250 million secured debt facility and a USD110 million increase in its revolving credit facility (RCF) have alleviated short-term cash risks.

Yes the score is still B- but they state the obvious that Cineworld's recovery is highly dependent on cinema attendance levels and new film releases. Both factors are not in Cineworld's control and they remain susceptible to a potential second infection wave. Cineworld's scale and cash-generative business model are supportive of a rapid recovery if cinema attendance levels return to normal.

Given there are THIRTY SEVEN (37) big titles lined up for 2020 and if we can maintain low levels in Europe and the handful of American states can control their cases, we should see a gradual recover.