Member Info for RS2002

Mooky must have a lot of friends to fill 75-100 cinemas and each screen time.

Try harder.

1. Net debt $3.5bn
2. 2019 turnover of $4bn - profit of $0.2bn
3. Sufficient liquidity until June/July 2021 (closed)
4. Passive income stream activated from Friday 31 July
5. Tenet confirmed for Wednesday 26 August

Let the attendance and media do the talking in due course.

Value is about to be recognised and will reflect in the SP.

Cineworld will issue an RNS soon to confirm their booking system is live and the England cinemas are open for customers.

My apologies for the incorrect assumption.

That was an unsuccessful de-ramp.

It has been stated before and once more:

Cineworld has a B grade against it which has a default risk of 4-10% and loan maturity isn’t due until 2023.

More than enough time to see a vaccine in place and global economies to recover never mind Cineworld.

Agree - once the mainstream picks up on this I think consumer confidence will return particularly as festivities across the world generally embrace the winter months. Withstanding the Christmas movie line-up that is busy during holiday season, as well.

It will be interesting to see how the market takes to this news.

It's no secret the market has been cautiously monitoring the variable of autumn and winter and its implication to the northern hemisphere.

This could support a long term play across a number of industries if seasonal influence has little or no play.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal-idUSKCN24T16U

Faulkes, you're welcome to post your opinion.

I can certainly post mine that presents some facts rather than continued speculation.

It's all down to the investment strategy (short/medium/long).

"When a business reopens doesn't matter.
What matters is when normal levels of trade return."

This is the often unseen benefit of Cineworld.

UNLIMITED membership which provides a passive income to Cineworld beyond the usual box office ticket sales.

If the supply of movies increases, the patrons will return, hence the gradual re-opening by Cineworld.

@ Zazu - The stocks are very different in their industries, what they provide, their NAV etc but at a crude price recovery perspective, consider the following:

Gym Group pre-coronavirus Share Price = 255p
Cineworld pre-coronavirus Share Price = 187p

Gym Group has recovered to = 144p (56% recovery)
Cineworld has recovered to = 42p (22% recovery)

The shorters are out in force trying to de-ramp and drive this down but consider the fundamentals:

1. Tenet back on the table for August release in Europe (including U.K.), Asia (including China) suggesting other studios could follow suite, too.

2. New Mutants re-iterated for August for U.K.

3. Arizona, Florida and Texas US trouble states declining from their former peaks.

4. Re-open of Cineworld, England and UNLIMITED membership re-activated set for Friday 31 July and Unhinged and Proxima to showcase.

5. Southern Hemisphere and their current winter season showing NO second wave.

6. Continued vaccine and treatment developments and trials emerging

7. Cineworld USA re-opening being touted as mid to late August 2020.

8. Fitch removed the Ratings Watch Negative (RWN) and said Cineworld have alleviated their short term liquidity concerns. They have enough cash to July 2021 if they remain closed. They said they set Cineworld on negative because of the uncertainty of Coronavirus, which is something all industries face, but acknowledge the rapid recovery they can take. Cineworld has a B grade against it which has a default risk of 4-10% and loan maturity isn’t due until 2023. More than enough time to see a vaccine in place and global economies to recover never mind Cineworld.

Good luck

Consider the risk vs reward.

You've done well on your earlier stake and subsequent exit.

Good luck

*seize

If you can demonstrate patience and appreciate the long term value Cineworld holds, you are in for a very good return.

As others have touted, has the opportunity to tripple very easily based on the current share price.

Keep reading the market and hold your nerve and cease opportunities to acquire more on dips if funds permit.

This share price has found its bottom at 42-44p and we are now in a holding pattern awaiting positive market sentiment.

It really is that simple.

More positive news on cinema screenings increasing ten fold.

“With cinemas offering low prices and high market demand, the film market will usher in recovery at a faster rate,” China’s largest movie tickets platform said in the report.

The Cinemas are eagerly awaiting a catalogue of new titles. With Warner Bros playing ball in agreement with Tenent this will set the trend for international and US domestic state staggered release that will see cinemas return to profit at only 30% attendance. Couple with with prolonged screenings and a more agile audience thanks to working from home, everything points to increased footfall and in turn sustained revenue.

Source: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-cinemas-see-promising-recovery-054929906.html

@dreammachine - if you're going to predict a severe second wave, when the southern hemisphere (currently in winter season) aren't seeing a spike in influenza or covid-19, then we should also consider that cash flow doesn't come into equation until Q2 2021.

The timeline we follow with a vaccine is that it will be available by this time.

If you can speculate the worst, then we can either look at the polar opposite but really find a middle and at this current SP, this has priced in such.

Great summary but I would comment against the two negative risks have suitable mitigation.

- No net income for last 4 months and an estimated $200 million cash burn since then.
We don't have sight of the accurate costs following the negotiations. We know that Cineworld have, on record stated that their costs are 70% variable and that in some territories like Poland, rent was nil whilst they remained closed. The cash burn has been touted as anywhere between $20-70m whilst closed. We know that Cineworld's predominant footprint (73%) is the US and NATO (National Association of Theatre Owners) confirmed a $454B loan guarantee fund which would help cinemas get by on their costs during prolonged shutdowns.

-Legal Proceedings are pending against Cineworld, brought forward by Cineplex for breach of contract. Billions in damage are being sought.
This is going to be dragged out in litigation and the question that needs to be asked is will this resolve before we see a global recovery or run past that? If other similar battles are to go by this could, conservatively be a 12-18 month affair and I believe the recovery will be with us well before this time to assess the situation for its implication to the share price.

I do agree though this is heavily dependent on the news we receive from the US.

1. Will they maintain their re-opening (phased across states?)
2. Will they maintain the drop in numbers?
From an investment perspective, the question is: Has this all been priced in at current SP?

I may present a bias view as an investor but I believe so.

Looking positive

Morning Moola - couple this with the appetite from Warner Bros (and other studios) that they want to do a staggered state/city release of Tenet bodes well that the majority - 75% of Cineworld Regal cinemas will open and have a movie catalogue to play.

I'm looking forward to the Cineworld England/UK booking system to go live this afternoon.

Ahead of October, we can expect September will disclose the phase 3 trial data back for Oxford/AstraZeneca’s AZD1222 vaccine.

The ducks are all lining up.

*Multi Billion