Member Info for Roth1

I confess that I don't know what to believe with this share any more. I haven't sold any because I see Ireland as my 'insurance'. Corrib South will eventually get the SA, the logic is inescapable and that should at least get me back to my buy in price.

As for Morocco, mixed messages have left me hoping for the best but reconciled to maybe not seeing much return. The recent private, very bullish 'research note' was compelling, well written and seemingly authoritative. It reminded me of the Reddit extensive research that persuaded me to buy in the first place. It is also backed up by the comments from respected posters with much more industry knowledge than I have (such as Keithoz, Grh, Jasper, Oldslow65 and others). However, the RNS of the Mou5 results left me decidedly underwhelmed. It read like nothing of substance had been found but held out the prospect of riches further afield. Against this there is the mystery of the well head left at Mou5 and the rumours of a conspiracy of silence and deception by Moroccan authorities. But if some entity is looking to buy the assets on the cheap, why is there a seeming absence of substantial buying on the market which you would expect to precede any bid. All of which leaves me totally confused. I wont be selling any of my holding. I want to see this out to the end and am hoping Ireland eventually brings some sanity!

I confess I have lost touch with what is going on with mou3. I know testing is due on the over pressured shallow zone for the potential CNG project. But is there new work taking place on the Mou3 drill that is targeting a potentially bigger gas zone. If so anyone got a feel for timescales, the size of the target and what impact success could have on the share price. Thanks in advance

From my perspective, looking at the pictures posted by Keith the other day and the renewed optimism from GRH, i suspect there may be on-going drilling activity of some sort. Perhaps the 12k from the prime drilling site does not preclude an interpretation of the Mou5 drill which suggests other smaller 'delineated gas filled structures' are much closer than most PI's realise and PG has found a way to have a cheap 'second shot'. Just idle speculation from someone as uninformed as most investors.

The big question of course is now much could the Mag Melll project be worth to PRD if given the go ahead. Thanks for all the informative posts this morning.

Thank you Obadhia

I confess I am not entirely sure what to expect from Ireland (assuming the authorisation goes ahead). Any views on how a farm out might be structured? Also not sure what the inter company loan is referring to. Would welcome any thoughts/clarification.

Corrib South is an application for a successor authorisation. It is not impacted by the previous government ban on new licences. See PRD presentation January 2025.

I found the following recent document re Irelands energy security particularly reassuring.

https://www.williamfry.com/knowledge/landmark-month-for-lng-and-energy-security-in-ireland/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20Government's%20announcement,enhancing%20our%20indigenous%20energy%20systems.

In particular I would recommend you go to the full report -link at the bottom of the page and then go to Annex 2 - Securing Irelands Gas Supplies. Page 29 makes encouraging reading. For example: " A significant number of consultation responses supported a change in Government position on this matter to reopen Ireland’s offshore for new gas exploration, with a number emphasising that this could be particularly valuable near the Corrib gas field where the infrastructure to land gas already exists."

Thanks Keith. Your input to this board is irreplaceable.

Thanks for that HawaytheRRD. Very reassuring. From the number of recommendations you have received, I suspect others agree with your conclusion.

Hello Keith. First of all a big thank you for your invaluable and informative posts. You and a few others with industry knowledge on this Board are the only thing that make it worth reading these days.

I still have a sizeable holding in PRD and haven't sold any despite the recent turbulence. I intend to hold and want to see this to its conclusion with the (hopefully early) drilling of MOU 5. However, the recent information released by PG has created as many questions as answers. One in particular you may be able to help with.

We know very little about the results of the flow tests for MOU3. However, hypothetically, lets assume that only minimal flow has been observed (less than that needed to be commercial). I know that the MOU5 drill would be different to the MOU3 drill and the mud issues would probably not arise. But, if my understanding is correct, the upper and lower sections of the MOU3 drill are not now being impeded by formation damage. If the flow from those sections were also minimal or non-commercial what read across, if any, does this have for the prospects of MOU5 flowing.

I ask this because it seems much of Moroccan gas exploration seems beset by the same recurring flow issues and (probably naively) I have always assumed that any gas in the Guercif region was being fed by seepage from the deeper Jurassic formations, or perhaps they are entirely separate.

Any light you can throw on this would be gratefully received. Thanks.

There would be no better time than now for an opportunistic bid. Sentiment is rock bottom. Even the most fervent admirers of PRD must accept that the management have made a complete mess of things and trust has evaporated. Yet the assets are still worth well more than the share price suggests. A low ball takeover in the next few weeks would not surprise me. It would also explain the unprecedented troll activity witnessed.

I cannot get excited about MOU-5 prospects until I see some results from MOU-3 testing. So far we know very little, yet this is the crucial indicator of what we might be sitting on. Hopefully some detail on flow rates next week. Until then, I will definately not be counting any chickens.

Of course everyone is assuming that the locked box accounts would be a positive for SQZ. But what if further losses were written off during this period. Would account for the reluctance to give detail!

The other point I would make is that Mr and Mrs Hardy are no fools and given the huge amount they have invested in this company, I am sure they will be employing private accountants and analysts to go over this proposed deal with a fine toothcomb in addition to considering the many arguments against, made on this and other boards.

It wouldn't require an EGM to stop this deal. All that's needed is for the Hardy's to tell Mitch Flegg they can't support it. The deal would have to be pulled. Ok it would cost £7m but that is a small price to pay. The Hardy's are private investors like the rest of us and can surely see this is being driven by Serica managements' self-interest. The other major shareholders are institutions and without someone giving them a lead will just do what management advise - like sheep to the slaughter house.
I can't believe after all these years of waiting for the right deal and not 'wanting to overpay' that this is what they have come up with. It stinks of self interest at the expense of shareholders. Precisely what has been promised, we will likely never know. We have all been stitched up before by this sort of thing. I would have liked to hope this management were above all that. But I guess, despite the rich rewards they have had from this company in the past, the temptation to get a retirement pay-off is always present..

Sadly, that's the only language this government understands - the industry should vote with it's 'feet' and stop being the whipping boy for the climate activists. If the licensing round gets no interest, the tax situation will quickly change.

Even the oil companies don't seem to understand what is going on as the following extract from Ithacas Friday RNS suggests:

"The full details and legislative changes related to these revisions have not yet been published and therefore it is currently not possible to fully assess the potential impact on the Company. The Company will provide an update to the market, as appropriate, once full details are known."

This confusion is causing a drag on the share price and it is absolutely outrageous that no-one has yet seen fit to clear up the confusion several days after the announcement. it really does make you question whether the government itself knows what it is doing.

I still don't see how reducing the investment allowance to 29% is consistent with maintaining the cash value of the old investment allowance. I believe this confusion caused the share price drop yesterday. This is creating a false market and the confusion should be clarified urgently either by the company or the government.

There is of course a silver lining in all of this for SQZ - we have still got around two thirds of our share value in cash! We have all been exhorting the Company to get on with it and buy assets, and had they done so they would probably have bought additional North Sea production. Those assets would now be worth a lot less. As it is, the Board have done us all a favour. We still have around £550m cash and will soon be in a much better position to make judgements about future investment. SQZ can buy overseas to avoid WFT or, dare I say it there may even be some North Sea assets at fire sale prices which may be worth looking at (though there are problems with that given the uncertainty of what a possible Labour govt might do in 2024).

SQZ, unlike most oil companies, have plenty of options available and excellent prospects of turning this taxation nightmare to our benefit. That cash keeps me invested and still hopeful!