Member Info for Roth1

Potential delays to Nord stream 2 are pushing up gas prices. But despite US sanctions NS2 will happen for one good reason - Germany needs the gas! Short term the higher gas price will have little impact on Serica as most of our production will have been hedged at lower prices. However, if R3 comes on line soon we may be able to take advantage of these higher prices by hedging the potential extra 10,000 bpd and locking in at these extremely high prices. Eventually, gas prices will come back down to more normal levels as ways are found to circumvent the NS2 obstacles. Would be a good trading opportunity were it not for the fact that other SQZ news is imminent and it would not be a good time to be caught out!

NewKOTB: Remember that r3 will represent a large proportion of SQZ's future production. Any potential acquirer will want firm information on R3 flow rates (as will SQZ) to determine a proper valuation of the company. That will likely need to be over an extended period rather than just a couple of days. It is essential for all parties that they achieve optimal and sustainable flow. Lets see what happens once the production is announced. An extra say 1k/2k bpd above the expected (hoped for) flow of 10,000 bpd will be material to any offer price.

NewKOTB: The answer to your question is 'yes'. However I do have a few caveats. First, the 2020 results are unlikely to be anything like as good as 2019. Second, the prolonged R3 intervention may have put a bit of a dent in our cash pile. So unless accompanied with good news on R3, the 15 April is unlikely to see much of an uplift in the share price.

Longer term SQZ looks a 'no brainer'. But without a bid the share price may continue to languish until the 2021 Interims. From that point I would envisage a steady re-rating prior to the January revenue uplift. I completely agree that without something to boost the share price, a bid between now and the summer looks the likeliest prospect.

And then add in the incremental additions from the BKR deal at the start of next year and -------- Wow! my head is spinning.

Add in a modest 5000 bpd for the Rum 3 intervention and our £90m cash and you are talking something over £3 per share.

Slightly disappointed that the cash levels haven't at least been maintained. But the Capex seems to be being well spent. Delighted that the Rhum 3 intervention hasn't encountered any insurmountable problems (albeit with a slight delay) and excited by the prospect of what 2021 and 2022 have to offer. Will be surprised if the share price isn't at least double where we are now by this time next year and possibly considerably more!

GRG may have chosen to facilitate a deal by selling part of their large holding to the prospective seller. Releasing 3.4% or more knowing the transaction will sweeten a deal that possibly increases the rest of the holding by > 100%, doesn't seem such a bad result! Or am I in fantasy land?

The GRG disposal may just be a routine small disposal of a large holding taking advantage of the recent price rise. But I believe it could also be part of some much bigger corporate activity that Serica are involved in. I get the feeling something is going on behind the scenes. The share price is still being micro managed with the same pattern every day and we are still seeking acquisitions. The management will not be sitting on their hands. What will emerge in time, I know not, but the bigger the deal the longer it will take. I am buying more day by day as the opportunity arises. My advice is sit tight and lets see how things develop - it could be big!!

My take on the article and trying to read between the lines is that talks have or are taking place but the parties have not YET been able to agree the terms. Serica, rightly for us, want a good deal for shareholders. I read yesterday's article as part of the negotiating stance. We are not going to be bounced into a deal and we don't necessarily need one to advance the company. The greater pressure is on the companies seeking to divest assets. They have gone on record of their intentions and have set timescales for changing their focus. So ours is a position of strength.

I suspect talks are ongoing (a bit like Brexit) and my bet is that a deal will eventually be done. Frustrating for us at times but patience will likely be rewarded.

Not sure we can say how far off a deal may be. I took some encouragement from the 'we want to do another deal soon' comment. Even if one was imminent, they couldn't give any indication or raise expectations before pen is put to paper.

Someone just bought 173,000 at 113p just after the close!

Recent share price movements (or lack of them) suggests one thing to me - Corporate action of some sort is imminent!

Hold fast.

In the Herald article Tony Walker talks about a "partnership between the larger companies, as they redirect their capital and refocus their strategies, and the independents, such as Serica". I am hoping the BKR deal may provide the model for a much larger and more extensive partnership between BP and Serica whereby SQZ manages a large part of BP's ageing wells in return for a modest lump sum payment but a large part of future revenues which would give BP the cash to invest in alternative energy whilst giving Serica a gradually increasing share over a period. I can envisage a deal where we would almost be acting as a subsidiary but separately quoted branch of BP. Could be absolutely massive for SQZ but would be a complicated deal and would take time to sort the detail. Patience will be required but the return could be huge

Having seen the deal PMO ended up, I would prefer we stayed as far away from Chrysoar as possible. The institutions would sell their Grandma for twopence and you could end up with a fraction of our real value!

Not sure if this has been posted. Apologies if it has. Makes mention of Serica.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oils-selling-spree-might-132851123.html

You may well be right but I can currently sell 20,000 at .9813p. So what is the point of the multiple small sells. They certainly don't achieve the best price which you would have thought any seller would want. So what is the motivation apart from artificially depressing the share price. You have to ask yourself to what end!

Lord knows what was going on yesterday with the huge flurry of small sales, but basically we are now back where we were a couple of days ago. My bet is still on a takeout in the near future but would love it if SQZ can find a suitable acquisition!

"Unless someone makes a bid". That is the crux. At the current share price, that must be a distinct possibility. £1.50 bid and we could bee gone! I prefer to hold.

There have been consistent large after hours buying over several weeks now. usually in blocks of at least 300,000. Today, we had the usual 300,000 + buy after hours together with a lot of others totalling over 500,000 after hours. Something going on!

Cairn will shortly, when the Senegal sale is complete, be a cash rich North Sea oil producer looking for acquisitions. they will have $600m prior to a special divi to shareholders of $250, Leaving them with $350 to go towards buying producing assets. Cairn currently has stakes in Catcher and Kraken and is producing 20,000 barrels per day from those assets. Serica would look a good fit and a tempting target.

If anyone is eyeing Serica, the window of opportunity may be closing fast. Management of the company must be in lots of data rooms looking at potential acquisitions themselves and once they make a move to buy, they cease to be such a tempting target, at least for a while. Will they be buyer or seller. The longer this goes on the odds shorten on the former!