Member Info for Roth1

Hi Londoner. I am new to Cairn and decided to invest a modest amount today based on the Senegal news. It gives a nice payout to holders whilst, as you point out, leaving a good cash sum which if invested wisely in producing assets could set up the Company with at least double current production. The one big unknown of course is the arbitration case. How do you, and other investors assess the likely impact of this based on a best, worst and likely scenario and what impact could each have on the share price? My own finger in the air suggests a potential doubling if it goes for CNE, a 30% drop if it goes against, and perhaps a likely fudge that gives CNE a 20% to 30% increase. Pure guesswork of course!

I am hoping the Serica Board resist any offers for the Company for at least two years. However, I suspect we will be a target and I am musing about the size of any potential offers. Unfortunately, all too often UK oil companies seem to have been bought out on the cheap (the management often lured by well paid consultancy or board positions in the new company). i recall my experience with Ithaca, Faroe and others where I was left feeling underwhelmed by the eventual takeout price. I hope our management show a bit of backbone and do not sell out too cheaply. The current undervalued share price doesn't help and, if there were an offer tomorrow, the Rockrose experience suggests it's unlikely we would see more than £2 a share. A fair offer, in my view would be much closer to £2.50. preferably none of this happens and SQZ continues its remarkable growth as predator rather than prey!

I find it hard to see any negatives with Serica. If nothing else happens I can sit on my shares and be reasonably confident just with existing projects and future known increases in production that the shares will likely at least double in the next couple of years. In the meantime I will get a 2.5% or 3% dividend minimum each year.
Alternatively, the share could be taken over tomorrow at double today's price. However I am sure Serica's management are not sitting on their hands. They will be busy looking at all the North Sea prospects currently up for sale and, if the past record is anything to go by, if they do any sort of deal it will be a cracker and give a further substantial boost to the share price.
I have looked at most North Sea energy producers and quite frankly can not see a better place to invest. We are on an exciting journey and I can't wait to see how it all transpires.

Yes, I also like Rockrose and it is my second largest holding. However, I see it as more dependant on doing a good acquisition ans without that is more likely to languish than SQZ. With a deal it probably has bigger potential (in terms of share price appreciation). So somewhat more speculative but still a buy.

A lot of negative comment on this board recently. But personally I love this stock! A good dividend, substantial organic growth just from the projects currently in the pipeline, and, as a bonus, the very real prospect of big new deals that could see us catapulted to new highs - all in an stable political environment. What is there not too like. Show me a better oil stock that combines safety with massive potential.

If Serica and Rockrose are to merge, now would be as good a time as any. The synergies would hugely benefit both companies and the £400m + joint cash pile would enable a big buy of new assetts without incurring significant debt. The shares are trading at a convenient ratio of almost exactly 10 Serica for 1 Rockrose, so very easy to transfer to shares into a new company. We all know it makes sense!

Serica could soon be approaching all time high levels - remarkable in these markets. I suspect it is being 'walked up' as a prelude to a bid which could come in at about £2 a share, valuing SQZ at something in the order of £500m (sounds about right).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-crash-3-top-064251735.html

In the light of these results Serica will either enjoy an imminent re-rating or will be seen as a very juicy takeover target. One way or another the share price will rise substantially!

Serica is 80% gas production and gas futures have, unlike oil, been going up. We have been marked down with the whole sector but for me the stock is a screaming buy. Can't wait for the bounce that will come with the finals.

Some very strange share price movement in both Serica and Rockrose in the last half hour of trading yesterday. SQZ suddenly went up 7% and Rockrose declined about the same (against the general up trend for oilers). Odd, to say the least, and may signal some sort of corporate action is imminent. I will be up early Tuesday to see if my reading of the tea leaves has any foundation.

If the USA does end up imposing tariffs on Saudi/Russian oil as a means of protecting the US shale oil industry. What are the chances the UK would follow suit to protect what is left of the North Sea energy industry. It still employs a lot of people and is an essential component of the Scottish economy. I would hope we would follow the US but not sure.

Iranian connections giving the market jitters today!

Spirit Energy looks like a potential acquisition opportunity. However, as a new investor in Rockrose I am struggling to see how they could finance this without a substantial issue of new equity. I would welcome any thoughts on this. Perhaps a better route might be a joint bid with another similar sized seeker of North Sea assets like Serica. A collaborative venture of this sort might make it more manageable, or am I underestimating what RRE on its own is capable of?

Thanks Hangingin there.

Anyone know what the flow rate was during the Lancaster DST?

Yes, debt! But I would bet there would also be a share issue element which is the bit I don't like - the kiss of death for small oilers.

The big question in my mind is how RRE would fund a £1.2 billion acquisition? Would this mean a big share dilution at a discounted rate? I suspect recent share price weakness may be down to fears of a discounted rights issue combined with taking on a lot of debt!!

Would love it if Sinopec were involved because it would give us our best chance of realising top dollar for the Amer assets. However my money would be on Occi to win the bidding. They have already shown their strong interest in acquiring exploration opportunities in Columbia and have an established close relationship with Amer. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't take soundings with the Amer management re buying the whole company during the recent deal. The problem with Occi is they have taken a lot of criticism about overpaying for the Andarko acquisition and may be sensitive to similar criticism if they pay a substantial premium for Amer. Nevertheless, I suspect their interest will trump any other suitors.

I am wondering how the bid process will be handled. That is, when the first firm bid is received do they RNS so that other bidders can compete before bidding is closed or do they tell other bidders privately they have an offer of xxp and not to bother unless they can top that. If bidders are told privately of the current situation, it raises a real prospect of insider trading!