Member Info for Roth1

OBA volume now at just over 5000 bpd. Is it third party oil or the side track delivering!

MM happy to raise the bid to attract sellers so someone in the background happy to accumulate big volumes. Nearly 900,000 sold today against 30,000 buys. The bid is then dropped back before a rinse and repeat exercise.

Remember also that the Sol drill is testing two zones. Normally, with one zone, I would have expected the result would be due about next Monday. But the additional testing required may mean we have to wait a bit longer this time.

Todays (or yesterdays reported today) OBA volume is 4519. So something is going right!

There has been a lot of recent talk about an imminent takeover of Amer and I would agree that suspected share price manipulation leads me to suspect that stock is being quietly accumulated. Also I believe our Board are aware of this threat and that is what possibly prompted GC to say at the AGM that he knows the real value of Amerisur. Ironically his reelection as Chairman at the AGM may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Other members of the Board (JW in particular) could be bought off by any potential acquirer with lucrative consultancy appointments or even a seat on the Board of the bidder. But GC would not be wanted and this may result in him being our best defence against a cheap takeover. He may well still retain considerable clout in persuading the institutions including Michinoko to resist a low ball offer. In any event, he wouldn't go without putting up a fight.

It's always possible of course that the Company are aware of future takeover moves. Indeed Amer may already have an understanding that they will submit to an agreed takeover when the real value of CPO5 is more apparent. That wouldn't preclude the potential acquirer seeking now to buy am much stock as possible at current bombed out prices and even engaging in some manipulation to get stock as cheaply as possible to reduce the eventual cost. A lot is riding on the Sol drill to determine what exactly Amer is worth. I can't now see any move being made before that result is know. Lets hope we have a bit of luck!

The most important thing to come out of the AGM is that the drill bit is turning. We already knew that production was up substantially from the first quarter but a lot of people were, I suspect concerned that nothing new was happening operationally. Success of failure with the drill will ultimately determine the rate of Amerisur.

There has been some recent speculation about a takeover. But at present i see no signs that anyone is accumulating. If a bid is to materialise, I would suggest the window of opportunity is closing fast. There is some investor disillusion currently but two successful drill results will see the return of the speculative froth and that opportunity will be gone. So if someone is eyeing a bid its probably now or never.

You are probably right about the BoD not being interested in getting rid of the Golden Goose. However, if I were a potential purchaser, knowing what we now know about discontent by major shareholders re the performance of the company, Directors remuneration, and unhappiness with management generally, I would be informally approaching these shareholders and asking them at what price they would look to exit! At least then if they go 'hostile' they will have a good idea if the bid will succeed, whatever the BoD recommend!

The.news this weekend of Michinokos voting intentions is tantamount to putting up a for sale sign outside Amerisurs offices.

It's telling ONGC, Occidental, GTE, etc, make an offer!!!

I agree with your view that we are ripe for takeover. The asset value at the end of 2018 was £213m against a current market cap of £160m, and that was before the Indico result. the Calau duster has taken all the speculative froth out of the share so the buyer will never have a better opportunity. My money would be on ONGC. They want us out of CPO5 and who better than them to know what the full potential of the current and prospective finds could be!

Can't fathom this stock. Today every other oil stock is down on week oil price. We have nearly two million more sales than buys and end up! The other day it was the complete reverse. Something is going on behind the scenes.

Looks like current production is up a good 40% on where we were in the first quarter. All we now is to get the drill bit turning and things should start to turn.

If you translate this page it appears we are currently producing about 4300 bpd from Putamayo. So add in CPO5 and we could currently be producing a total of 6700 bpd. It also gives some flavour of the compexities of operating in Columbia.

https://www.portafolio.co/negocios/empresas/la-inversion-de-amerisur-en-el-pais-se-cuadruplicara-este-ano-528809

ONGC have already expressed an interest in buying Amer's 30% of CPO5, I can't see them standing idly by and watch GTE snap up Amer for a low value bid. Especially as they are on the record as seeking acquisitions. Ditto Occidental. I am sure there would plenty of suitors for Amer's holdings but why would investors be in a rush to sell such an undervalued stock. Amer is always the plaything of sentiment. Prior to Calau everyone was uber bullish. OK so that was a duster but, come on, not much of the overall scenario has changed. I will give it to year end to see if they can deliver what is promised. Who knows there may already have been informal discussions with our big partners about what it would take for a buy out and i would hope our management would seek a fair value.

The share price will respond when production is shown to be on the up. At the start of 2018 we briefly touched 7000 bpd and that was expected to increase with further drilling. Instead, there was little drilling in 2018 (18 drills were indicated and two actually materialised) and there has been a steady decline in production - at the last ops update we were producing 4600. Little wonder the share price has declined. However, the current indicators are that production is rising and currently look like it is in excess of 6000 bpd. If Amer can keep that increasing and a good proportion of the promised drills take place the share price will surely follow suit. Oil prices go up and down so I don't see that as a primary driver. Its all about production and to a lesser extent reserves! Forget about investing in new acreage - that's pie in the sky if we don't capitalise on what we already have.

The unofficial figures are currently showing an OBA throughput of about 3900 bpd. Add to that 900 for Mariposa and 1600 for Indico and we must currently be producing around 6400 bpd. Not too shabby!

I heard on another board that results were due on the 9th April ie. Tuesday. So now I am not sure Monday or Tuesday?

No question the Calau1 result is a big disappointment - we were all hoping this drill would prove connectivity. However there are some positives that we can focus on:

Production in Q1 was better than I expected.
There was always a risk with Calau and JW flagged up this possibility at the outset but it does not disprove the central premise that CPO 5 can be a very big producer - the potential is unchanged. It just means the wait will be longer.
The oil price is still on the up.
There are plenty of other prospect in the offing, and other drills to look forward to this year.
We are still generating lots of cash and the drill programme is fully funded.

Buyers will likely return as the day progresses and bargain hunters will return probably this afternoon. I envisage a close around 15p. We are more undervalued than ever! I will keep faith that it will come good given time.

The share price here is hitting a brick wall every time at 17p Either someone is offloading a shed load at that price OR we are being softened up for a takeout on the cheap. Hope it is not the latter but I have seen it so many times. As soon as a small oil company is showing potential, it gets hit with a cheap opportunistic bid and the institutions grab it! Don't tell me it could never happen here. There are ways and means of getting the Directors on board (offer them a very lucrative position in the parent company with the promise of lots of share options). The markets are corrupt and Amer will have to be very lucky to ever see full potential.

The recent PR round has massively 'upped the ante' and expectation surrounding the Calao drill. The theories of combination trapping and connectivity could be severely dented if this drill fails. Still, that's oil exploration I guess! Hope JW has got it right.

I thought Amer had one available for their drill programme but it is not being utilised at the moment! Could they not 'pass it on' to ONGC (subject to contract renegotiation). CPO 5 has to be the priority.