We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
The share price will respond when production is shown to be on the up. At the start of 2018 we briefly touched 7000 bpd and that was expected to increase with further drilling. Instead, there was little drilling in 2018 (18 drills were indicated and two actually materialised) and there has been a steady decline in production - at the last ops update we were producing 4600. Little wonder the share price has declined. However, the current indicators are that production is rising and currently look like it is in excess of 6000 bpd. If Amer can keep that increasing and a good proportion of the promised drills take place the share price will surely follow suit. Oil prices go up and down so I don't see that as a primary driver. Its all about production and to a lesser extent reserves! Forget about investing in new acreage - that's pie in the sky if we don't capitalise on what we already have.
The unofficial figures are currently showing an OBA throughput of about 3900 bpd. Add to that 900 for Mariposa and 1600 for Indico and we must currently be producing around 6400 bpd. Not too shabby!
I heard on another board that results were due on the 9th April ie. Tuesday. So now I am not sure Monday or Tuesday?
No question the Calau1 result is a big disappointment - we were all hoping this drill would prove connectivity. However there are some positives that we can focus on:
Production in Q1 was better than I expected.
There was always a risk with Calau and JW flagged up this possibility at the outset but it does not disprove the central premise that CPO 5 can be a very big producer - the potential is unchanged. It just means the wait will be longer.
The oil price is still on the up.
There are plenty of other prospect in the offing, and other drills to look forward to this year.
We are still generating lots of cash and the drill programme is fully funded.
Buyers will likely return as the day progresses and bargain hunters will return probably this afternoon. I envisage a close around 15p. We are more undervalued than ever! I will keep faith that it will come good given time.
The share price here is hitting a brick wall every time at 17p Either someone is offloading a shed load at that price OR we are being softened up for a takeout on the cheap. Hope it is not the latter but I have seen it so many times. As soon as a small oil company is showing potential, it gets hit with a cheap opportunistic bid and the institutions grab it! Don't tell me it could never happen here. There are ways and means of getting the Directors on board (offer them a very lucrative position in the parent company with the promise of lots of share options). The markets are corrupt and Amer will have to be very lucky to ever see full potential.
The recent PR round has massively 'upped the ante' and expectation surrounding the Calao drill. The theories of combination trapping and connectivity could be severely dented if this drill fails. Still, that's oil exploration I guess! Hope JW has got it right.
I thought Amer had one available for their drill programme but it is not being utilised at the moment! Could they not 'pass it on' to ONGC (subject to contract renegotiation). CPO 5 has to be the priority.
Apparently the OBA throughput continues to decline. A poster on another site reports that volumes have recently been regularly below 2000 bpd and for 'several days last week were only c1700bpd'. So that explains the share price decline!!
Can anyone explain for me the meaning of ' 283 feet gross, 209 feet net oil column'. I understand the 209 feet oil column bit but what is the 283 feet gross referring to?
Looks like they tried to drop it a bit too far this time and fell foul of the price monitoring regulations. No doubt lesson learned they will be a bit more subtle tomorrow!
Don't know just saw it flashed up and then quickly removed. No doubt they will be trying again tomorrow!
There was an attempt to knock the bid down to 13.50p at the close (and the offer to 14p) but they cocked up and got caught by a price monitoring extension! Bar stewards! Talk about a rigged deck.
I imagine Amer will be keen to release the initial flow results and pressure tests for Indico which I would expect soon. Also, am I right in assuming they will wish to do the connectivity tests with Mariposa before there are any appraisal wells drilled. If so we will know the result fairly quickly. All of which will keep the momentum going.
Debt reduction suggests production is way ahead of earlier projections. Great news!
There were early indications after Mariposa that ONGC were after buying Amerisure's interest in CPO5. If this is the case then they will have to publish full details of the true extent of the fiend and any connectivity fairly quickly. Personally I hope Amer hang on to the asset. I would sooner we were a producer getting a steady 10000 bpd from Cpo5 alone than a wad full of cash the would probably be spent looking for oil elsewhere with uncertain results. We don't need the cash (given the recent buyin from Occidental) to explore our other assets!
Sorry wrong link
https://www.fircroft.com/blogs/the-top-pre-fid-lng-projects-to-watch-83302614404
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=40953386&from=14343#firstpost
Somebody still thinks the project is live!
In 2014 Ophir sold a 20% interest in the gas fields in Blocks 1 and 4 in Tanzania for $1.3 billion. After a recent surge, gas prices are back to levels last seen in 2014 and Ophir still retains 20% of those gas fields. What are they worth now - certainly multiples of the current share price just for that one asset.
Talk of 80p or 90p takeover is too low. Something to ponder over the weekend!
Big shareholdings have definitely changing hands over the last few months and this is ongoing. At the moment someone is accumulating in sizeable quantities. For example just after lunchtime today there were big sells of 1,250000 followed by another 250,000 shortly thereafter. The price dipped a bit soon after the sells but not for long and was soon back in the blue. No corresponding buys were recorded as yet!
Whether this is just the institutions buying a grossly undervalued share or something else we know not and will not know until a threshold is passed or the buyer(s) reveal themselves and their intentions!
The latest on Paus Biro 1 sounds encouraging. The original notification of the drill said " In the
event of significant hydrocarbons being discovered, up to 2 cased hole DSTs may be
conducted'. The fact they are doing three DSTs is very promising!
The recent sell off is indiscriminate and affecting all oil companies, good or bad. Ophir looks a very undervalued stock at the moment and I suspect is still suffering the Fortuna effect. We should have some news on that within six or seven weeks and with it there will be further news on current production levels (I hope). The three likeliest outcomes on Fortuna are a complete write off, a license extension, or news of financing coupled with an extension. I sincerely hope they only go for an extension if there is a real prospect of a successful outcome, otherwise this white elephant will remain a drag on the shareprice and an unwelcome distraction.