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What is clear is that meetings with Cavendish and Artemis were held and LT failed to persuade them of the merits of the offer. Can't see what a second meeting will achieve unless it is along the lines of 'how much will it take to change your mind?'. Strange we have heard nothing from the other big institutional holders, unless they are letting Cavendish and Artemis do the talking.

Wait! Bigger increase in reserves than I anticipated. Otherwise everything going to plan. Watch and wait.

I suspect there are fewer convinced its a 'done deal' that you might supose. A lot of people are watching and waiting but in the absence of news, the Delek mouthpieces come on the board periodically and spout their mantra that keeping the shares is a waste of time and it's time to move on. I take comfort from the fact they would not still be around were the outcome not in doubt. I agree that stock picking can be a minefield and that's why it is so galling when you find a stock you like with real prospects only to see it bought out on the cheap just when it is starting to prosper.

Thanks for your calculations Londoner. I'm staying the course with you on this one. I think Delek will be watching the institutions and be guided by their actions. if they say 'no', Delek have invested too much time and money to just walk away. Another stock I like (but not at the expense of IAE) is Hurricane Energy. Huge potential upside (if the Halifax and Lancaster fields are connected) but the current oil finds are barely in the price, whereas a lot is already priced in to SOU. Just my view - don't want to be contentious.

I suppose we have to accept the Delek cheerleaders will be out in force over the next few weeks! Ah well, as Londoner suggests, put the kettle on and ignore the noise.

The more I think about this, the more I come to the conclusion that Delek will be happy with anything over 50% (including the 20% already owned), hence the low ball offer. I suspect they want control of a listed vehicle to pursue their North Sea ambitions. Some clues; "the Directors believe that there are limited prospects for delivering a step change in the scale and operations of the Company without the addition of significant capital". "· While the AIM Rules for Companies ("AIM Rules") do not prescribe the required levels of free float for a company to be eligible for trading on AIM, depending on the number of shares purchased pursuant to the Offer it is possible that the subsequent remaining free float could be insufficient to satisfy the criteria for continued admission of the shares for trading on AIM. · If the Offeror acquires sufficient shares under the Offer it could be in a position to force delisting or cancellation of the Company's shares from AIM. Under the AIM Rules, cancellation of a company's shares from trading on AIM is generally conditional upon the consent of not less than 75% of votes cast by its shareholders given in a shareholder meeting". There is unlikely Delek will get more than 75% take up. So we could end up with shares in Ithaca Mark2 listed on AIM and used as an acquisition vehicle by Delek. I wouldn't be unhappy with that - could be a very lucrative proposition!

A lot of buying seems to be going on at the moment. Sit tight and wait for events to unfold! We may be very pleasantly surprised. At least the Ithaca bid (miserable though it is) is giving a measure of protection against falling oil prices

Foresight: not sure I agree with your statement that a Delek controlled entity will have less upside. It could have a lot more upside. I believe Delek want to have a listed vehicle to further their North Sea ambitions. If they decided to use a majority owned Ithaca as an acquisition vehicle to buy other distressed assets, or even other companies, the new Ithaca could see huge growth. Getting clarity on their intentions may be the reason some of the institutions have not declared their positions. Either way they wont be getting my shares for anything like £1.20. But if some do choose to accept and increase Delek's holding, I may well be happy to stay with them for the ride, provided the listing is retained.

Part 2: The multi-billion barrel Ekofisk field north of Stella has developed much of it's reserves from the tight Ekofisk chalk. Sure - the reservoir is characterized as a high porosity low matrix perm rock but uncoventional horizontal multi-stage fractured wells eat that kind of rock up for breakfast. There is a development story not being told here I think. And that's not including the high probability of exceeding initial reserve estimates (which are by nature conservative), other nearby undrilled exploration targets, identified formations yet to be evaluated and cheaply increasing interest in other stranded pools. Tons of upside - and not one pence included in Delek's bid for that. Of course that would be forward looking and what self-respecting management would want to be caught doing that.... IAE is a company with a World Class assets surrounding and including FPF-1. Hopefully that catches the interest of other serious North Sea players and not just an opportunistic insider with deep enough pockets. Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#lOEvPyW2y4Xq4u82.99

Foresight: your post from yesterday was reposted by ditchdigger251 on the Stockhouse board with some interesting additional comment. Hope you don't mind if I repost it here for those who may not have seen it. Just thought I'd share foresight's IAE share value estimate posted this morning: "here are some basic maths 1) Audited reserves - 57 million barrels 2) oil price $55 3) Operating cost $18 4) net margin $37 5) net revenue 37 x 55m = $2bn 6) less debt of $600m = $1.4bn 7) FX of 1.25 = £1.1bn 8) shares outstanding 420m 9) value per share = £2.6 These are conservative - oil prices could go higher and reserves will increase with the new tie backs. Also, there is the time value of money - so £2.6 should be more like £1.6 today. Its difficult to find a way to go to £1.2 unless oil is $30. Its a judgement call on where oil prices are going and what might happen to production. The SP would be £1.2 anyway so you have the choice of selling in the market at £1.2 now or hanging on if you feel positive about oil price and the company to continue delivering projects. The deleveraging effect would increase the SP anyway over the next year - so SP would inevitably go up absent anything else.... Need I say more" Well...yes you could say more. There's development costs for about half of the Proved+Prob (P+P) reserves given above. Let's say those with FPF-1 already in place is $15/boe (rough guess). Also the reserves contain natural gas boe's which at 6:1 are roughly valued at about $35/boe (the price is about 45 pence/therm (10.32 therms/mcf). That said let's say roughly 1/4 of the boe's are nat. gas and 3/4 are oil (just going from FPF-1's gas and oil design capacities) but also increasing the average oil price for the next two years to $68/bbl (I think WTI is forecast in the $65 range) and then use that price flat along with the $35/boe gas price. This results in a weighted average price of $60/boe. There's probably natural gas liquids (propane/butane/condensate) that would enhance gas value but I'm leaving that out for now. Using the new assumptions I get an undiscounted per share price of $3.22 USD which converts approximately into $4.18 CDN. Discounting to ~PV10 using a 0.6 factor equates to $2.51/share. So I can see where the £1.50 current value comes from. I've got a sneaking suspicion that Delek's bid is more based on a PV15 value estimate or maybe not including the full P+P reserves (like P+1/2P) - which is what most shrewd buyers will do and not pay anything for upside. And keep in mind that there is significant upside to be had in the GSA. Not only is there 4 primary Stella Andrew sandstone producers but the fifth well is in the Ekofisk chalk reservoir - the secondary reservoir underlying Stella Andrew which could be, as the Donald likes to say, HUGE! The multi-billion barrel Ekofisk field north of Stella has developed much of it's reserves from the tight Ekofisk

Keep your finger off the sell button. Don't accept the offer and watch and wait. At worst the bid fails and Delek walk away (actually, I say 'at worst' but to me that would be the best case scenario). Yes the share price, for a brief time, might fall below what it was pre bid (especially as some of the directors would have to fall on their swords). But I envisage that will be short lived and before very long (a month or two at most) we would be at a price above where we are now. Thereafter the share price will steadily rise as production increases, debt is paid down and new value enhancing assets are acquired. Within twelve months this will be at £1.50 per share at least!!

No way is this going to be sold for what Delek have offered. They will fall seriously short of what they require. But they have invested too much time and effort to just walk away. They will up the bid - by how much is the real question. Always assuming of course that we don't, in the mean time, have an alternative buyer! Now that really would set the cat amongst the pigeons!! No, this is far from over and there is serious money to be made here rather than chasing the next best thing that could see the money earned on Ithaca lost as soon as you switch.

This sets out the rules for disclosure: https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html However, it begs the question, is Ithaca a UK or non UK 'issuer'. If UK its every 1% change over 3%. If its non Uk it's ever 5%. Sorry doesn't answer your question.

Hello, he's back! I wonder why? Paymasters getting worried?

There is a lot of interest in North Sea oil at the moment and several companies are known to be on the acquisition trail. It's inconceivable that there are no other companies running the sliderule over the Ithaca prospects and assets. We all know this is a prime facility and a company with the cash to buy some of the greater stella area prospects on the cheap could make a real killing. The low ball offer by Delek may backfire for them as it will tempt others to throw their hat into the ring. My advice watch and wait!!

So why are you still here wasting your time exhorting everyone to sell? Presumably you have taken your own advice and sold up, so move on. The fact you are still beating the same old drum speaks volumes!!

Sad to see folks bailing out. For me, there is still good money to be made here but patience will be required. I suspect there is a lot going on behind the scenes

The best thing that could happen here is the bid fails and Delek walk away. Even an improved offer is likely to grossly undervalue the stock! Without the bid, with production starting we would be at this price anyway. The whole thing makes me angry. Why price the bid in C$ when the majority of the shares are traded in £s? Beggars belief. Just do nothing and wait for the institutions to declare their hands. I just hope Delek are not doing backroom deals and making promises to the major holders about this new listed vehicle on the LSE they are talking about.

I am still not sure how well it is understood. The bid is NOT £1.20 it is C$1.95. Because the bid was priced in Canadian dollars, after exchange conversion, the bid in pound terms is now about £1.18. The fall in the price on the UK stock exchange is solely down to this currency factor (the price on the Canadian stock market hasn't moved!

The point I am trying to make in a long winded way is that,if the offer were to be accepted, Investors will be in for a shock when they find they receive something considerably less than the £1.20 they were led to expect!