Member Info for RorkesDrift

Yep both things are great but also now in public domain so built into price.

There are other pieces of info not public knowledge - that's what will move the price. Top of the list is launch date and capacity. Margin would also help.

Drug is likely to have different dynamics and distribution in mice and humans.

Authorities will want to see elimination profile - again different. Stefins are not inert molecules.

Chances of success may be slightly higher than standard phase 1 cause less unknown - dox is effective and think we can assume it will get to where it should be.

Whether it then acts an intended and stays there are purpose of phase 1 as is how are the components eliminated and how fast. Have to be confident I think but SP reflects significant unknowns. Thats biotech

Initially for Avacta it will be govts buying. Probably the UK government

Without information about this the TU will say minimal revenue lots of good ideas

So yep I am being forced to wait for HMG to decide when to tell us - probably waiting for the key revelations on PPE - manage the news flow

Not so much price being held back but expectations priced in - look at market cap over last 12 months.

I think we can be fairly certain that an LFD will be launched. That just leaves us to work out

Market volumes
Market price
Market share
Market duration
Margin

We have advantage over IIs in that we have a more flexible attitude to the risks these question raise - hence we were holding when the 30 patient study was announced.

The phase I was largely priced in I believe but is a nice safety net should this go pear shaped - you could imagine a TO at this MKT cap + for that bit of tech alone

I'm thinking the Right Reverend has a new identity

I'm struggling to understand the science -

I'm not sure I understood Gene delivery is another area which is looking increasing likely that the affimer technology will excel in?

Bump.

Proof of concept probably as important

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/operation-moonshot-matt-han****_uk_602b98edc5b6591becdb3b51

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/mass-testing-vital-tool-covid-efforts-despite-vaccine-success?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

With the Covid test (microtox) how does it detect covid?

Trading update will have minimal revenue which is a downer. Hence we need to see capacity numbers of all the deals.

Given the PL75 model of supply rather than demand being the key issues then these numbers enable simple maths to calculate total profit per month.

Say 50p to £2 per test x unknown monthly capacity x 24 months. Gives you new MKT cap as an asset value rather than a PE

I don't see that in the chart myself. Could you post a link especially to the ABC correction - are you sure?

Hants - interesting analysis.

Releasing the S and S result immediately I think is compulsory. The TU is more flexible.

Now Avacta and others including govt have some data then the machines can start producing product for initial stock in. This will be difficult to keep under wraps given number of stated suppliers and staff who work for them.

The full clinical validation may take longer than a couple of weeks.

I'm thinking TU this week and it will state size of potential volume. Was tempted to sell today but TU should see us over £2.50 cause it will give numbers to at least calculate revenue. It would have gone over two quid today if RNS had been a bit more precise eg it isn't saliva.

This bacon is nearly home.

In need now the webcam is up and running

I have reliably informed that more and more people are checking their RNS feed at 7 o'clock again. Cash on the sidelines waiting - I have too much in already without news but ROI in 12 months has been pretty cool

Think you are right - holders will hold, rumours will spread, Turnip and No Hope will wink a lot and we will rise to the opening of Professor Schrödinger's magical cat box

Can I summarise. If the TU contains good S/S figures the SP will go up. If Avacta announce significant manufacturing capacity at same time then the company will make profits and the SP will go up a lot. Avacta have patent on affirmers so if market wants the best solution then they will secure big market share of a big market the value of which is the first large number you think of

This Board, 12 months ago could have told them

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/15/middlesborough-council-withheld-details-of-outlay-on-unusable-covid-tests?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

It is not so much profits but RoI vs risk at the time of purchase. Without phase 3 risks are higher so price lower - suspect Board will hold out until data gets stronger (I believe but its not beyond doubt). Most pharma acquisition doesn't go to a dutch auction but the pairing that has the most synergy. AZ and GSK spring to mind.

The two approaches slightly different

IL6 antagonist dampens down the immune response.

Neutralising therapies work on the virus itself.

These types of drugs are lengthy development programs. Affirmers are a very early solution and things like half life and auto immunity will need to be sorted.

Drug companies faced with that risk will favour MaBs but over time affirmers (and aptamers who seem ahead) will appear. SP probably not based on that