Member Info for RorkesDrift

If we can submit questions I'm thinking "Why are you briefing non shareholders before briefing share holders".

Either the info.is useful in which case I would like it. There again I'm not friends and family - see Boohoo share sale and the wife of one of Profs mate. Makes me wonder how he got a very tasty non exec job.

Oh hang on....

I thought Prof Waffle gave the game away in the Vox Pox interview - said April then quickly changed his mind with a hurumoh er ah, wipe down of the shrumper. Think there will be a mass exodus on news based on CEO sentiment - great he has pulled it off but not sure if the smoke and mirrors actually helps long term SP. There will be dips. No nachos but dips

To be fair everything he has said on here as been more reasonable of late. Maybe he has mellowed - hope so.

Can we now officially declare this a fairy tale......

There were more buyers than sellers at the low point. As buyers bought the laws of supply and demand cut in and the price rose.

Who knows whether these buyers were attracted by information they have but we don't. Can I mention the cat?

Whilst the virus has even a small foothold, there will be a need for testing. UK is doing OK on vaccines but 2.5k people caught it yesterday. Govt predicting more cases as we ease lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/13/boris-johnson-easing-lockdown-will-increase-covid-infections?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

What value would you place on the company

a) today
b) with an LFD for Covid as good as we hope

Next question are your valuations more or less than £8B

Final question - you do understand the principles of company valuations including risk?

Pharma TOs tend to be for be for big sums and a little bit jam tomorrow. A number of analysis show many of them fail to make a RoI but there is an efficiency of scale that drives them. I've been involved in a couple - when paying high levels of CoGs it sometimes pays for itself but more so if you have an existing resource that you transfer from an old product life cycle to a new one. End up paying top $.

I think they will hold out until the shop window looks a little busier but the league Avacta looks like they will be playing in may need deep pockets and an established beachhead.

Let's say company is worth £8B in TO. That's a SP of North of £30. So a return on current valuation of 1100%. To earn the same money over say 5 years the average dividend would be approx £6. Numbers are extreme but you can see why a TO of that value would go through even through.

Now £8B is not just number picked out of mid air - look at values paid for companies with less potential - albeit also less risk.

I accept its all a bit armchair general stuff but hey the alternative is to throw insults at the DrWTF

Flippenheck.

In terms of timescale I was here before covid and I think a long time before you. I wasn't recommending a strategy but having a stab at the forecast game

However, I am also aware of the costs and assets required to enter the markets Avacta is involved in. A TO or merger if it makes you happier is not asset stripping - it should be a win for us shareholders realising more value and a win for the TO. It utilises a concept called synergy. The company split is one way of getting max value for both bits.

You have a different opinion relying on Avacta to commercialise their own or through partners (who then take margin) - that too is valid. Would be good to see your benchmarks for that.

Lol. You say its boring whilst at the same time continuing to read it and even comment. Some sort of dissonance happening there.

Maybe you need to drink more but I'm really impressed that you are a Dr or at least a wannabe. Go on say something rude - it makes you appear so so funny.

Define greedy vs your own reason for investing ?

If a High performing test can be delivered and there is suitable manufacturing capacity then it will need some sales data to be able to place a value on this - say six months. In that time vaccines will either be working or new outbreaks will be happening. £Bs TO don't over value such binary factors that well so suspect Avacta will run with it and SP will reflect sales coming in.

What would be great is if Avacta can follow up with another proof of concept test. Would need significant market - maybe flu, norovirus, salmonella, e. Coli etc. This would add longevity to the affimer platform - diagnostic ABs would be the benchmark. At that point the number of suitors expands since splitting the company may yield higher overall price. If someone bids now I'm tbi king it would need £8B+ to secure it - let the bidding commence

Not really diversifying risk by going there. If you believe in Avacta who have valuable IP why would the returns be higher in a commodity plastic bits manufacturer. One is a giver, the other a taker (of price and therefore margin). They don't even look to be the lowest cost producer so will face significant competitive pressure. Finally the price began to spike April 1st - now in pump territory until there is news. Perhaps set RNS alarm on them but no more than that

What Denny11 said. Cannot base the value of one asset on the sale of a basket of others.

Chairman actually gave value of Accustem in an interview last year.

LSE seem to endorse "share price manipulation" by congregations of people but two men / ladies / gender of their choice expressing a view is not allowed.

Where is that Avacta bloke with a tattoo - I need somevT shirts making up combing images of jail bars etc possibly with donkey entering

Is it the sort of tube you spit in - how does this fit with nasal test?

Suspect his Lordship along any second followed by the right Reverend and the congregation.....

The Thurs podcast had a bit about DNL. The guy who had been tipping basically said he had been in awaiting the news but was now out. He might come back in but essentially he wants to see if there competency extends to commercialising the opportunity. Odd cause he jadbstated potential 3x just two weeks earlier. Suspect some people followed his lead albeit at a much lower price. I think it might drift from here although I think it is undervalued - can see a mid pharma coming along and either doing the heavy lifting or an out and out TO. Either way now need to wait - target price is £1.40 but not for quite some time - 2 years+

This is ground control to Major Tomato.

Buying pressures looking good, Science data looking good. We have go, I repeat go for lift off.

Oh dear....