Member Info for RorkesDrift

Https://www.aacr.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/MTCT2023_postersC_titles-1.pdf

C169: AVA3996, a novel pre|CISION™ medicine, targets a warhead to the tumor microenvironment via

Fibroblast Activation Protein (FAP) mediated cleavage to elicit tumor cell kill. David Jones, Avacta Life

Sciences, London, United Kingdom.

criminal. if so then report it.

rumours. who started it, who perpetuates it. sounds a bit like the famous mcds september episode during lft and pre widow t****y exit left. being replayed by 5 repetitive twitter accounts

bmn, 4d pharma. probably others

all in a high risk stock. not a strategy anyone would recommend. might do it but definitely not recomend. unless of course you hoped others would follow.

all in - sounds like the mcpumpy my and my families considerable holding. yawn.

pump and dump. been caught before. time for a new persona - this one has run its course

No boosting but 50% chance of being a blockbuster, everyone wants it etc...

I'd be happy with a bit more boosting as in patients have remained on treatment because....

It would enable twitter to recycle real facts as well

Yep - tumour concept seems to be dose dependent but also highly variable. As said before lots of variables. The preclinical data combined with the human data published to date is promising. Establishing a dosing approach that reflects the unique dynamics of this drug and the variability in FAP expression between patients is going to be interesting.

The promise of hitting tumours hard whilst sparing patients side effects is there. Not sure how anyone states its nailed on without seeing the P1 data. It would be great if tumours are destroyed but I think I'll ignore the McD rumours for now. As I say if its as efficacious as normal dox whilst better tolerated then I'm sure they will make a mint

I prefer it when he uses disasters as an opportunity to post his holiday snaps.

The ridiculous thing is if the hypothesis works the graph should be shifted to the left rather than extended via the use of a six year olds plastic ruler and crayons. More important than a measure of equivalence dox dose (I find that meaningless but even AS says it) would be a vertical axis labelled systemic exposure against tumour size. Ill have to wait for the data to be published You but give in a week for the self help circle to crunch it through the magic calculator and a made up version will appear.

This also ignores that even a similar response for a lot less systemic exposure and therefore side effects is a massive result.

I've had more then my share of companies that go nowhere but that reflects the high risk nature of early pharma. Have to look at it in the round. As long as you don't pull out the magic calculator, claim to have soecial insight and then pump out a load of made up facts to rope others in then its cool.

Can see they are getting desperate and hoping to ride the current SP buzz given the number of tweets and the latest completely made up graph - made from exactly zero data. The reality will be different and possibly even better (dose response is exactly that - the dose that hits the tumour with ava6000 will not be the equivalent systemic dose of normal dox - that is kindergarten stuff)

The McDs security cameras picked up this

https://youtu.be/pjvQFtlNQ-M?si=DkQPAi1FirIlEAM4

4D pharma.....

Most people in pharma would have looked at that and walked away. Most people who pump and dump would.....

Take the clued up with pinch of salt. He claimed he worked in a South African tin mine when he was "all in" with BMN - attended the Reverend Kens church out in the Karoo.

Apparently they have gone all in. Not a conscious choice but BMN and 4D pharma performance means nearly 100% of their portfolio is with Avacta. Throw enough darts and you will hit bullseye but don't make you an xspurt.

Loving the "rumour" tactic again - McDs must be busy. Picture four individuals standing around the condiments shouting the same thing over and over again at each other whilst they top up the mayonnaise.

Its 50:50

We currently don't know the amount of ava6000 converted to dox. We don't know the max concentration of dox in tumour and how it compares to normal dox. We dont know the exposure of the tumour to dox over time.

Can someone pop down to McDs and stand by the ketchup to see if we can pick up some rumours.

Leek

Yep - changing posology would result in a different shaped ava6000 exposure curve - longer but flatter. Is the killing of tumour cells max concentration dependent or more about exposure (auc) type stuff. To be honest pharm101 was on a Friday afternoon at which point I was already p1ssed.

P1a continues though with same dosing approach - suggests safety committee are happy new data is still time be had.

Is mtd for normal dox at same systemic concentrations as dox appearing in systemic with ava6000 ? If so then disease hitting tumour would be massive. I'm thinking they haven't adopted that approach and tolerability being much better is their aim

Not long now in real terms. Im thinking private plate for the what will be newly released 2025 mx5 electric, 4wd roadster

Think you have to consider that ava6000 converts within the SMALL volume of the tumour. I don't believe 100% gets converted but to achieve high concentrations it doesn't need to.

If conversion is limited to tumour then presumably any dox seen systemically is related to leakage from a SMALL volume to a much LARGER volume. This results in dilution to a much lower concentration.

If 100% of the 3x normal dose was converted and leaked out then systemic conc would be correspondingly higher than normal but tumour concentration would be through the roof. Hence the pk of Ava6000 is complicated and will not be released on an ongoing basis until picture is clear. This will be at end of trial not halfway through.

I have mentioned fap saturation before - the fact that they continue to increase dose suggests it hasn't be hit yet but if it occurs at C6 or C7 then MTD bench marked against normal dox may never be hit.

RAH has submitted a question about why they didn't answer the last lot of questions. The calculator needs feeding

there is never a magic calculator when you need one.

if the chances of rns tomorrow is 50% on that rationale the chances of an rns the following day is also 50%.

so the chances of an rns tomorrow or the day after is 50% + 50% (using similar approach to stats).

this means the chances of an rns this week is 100%.

i'll laugh my ***5 offb if this prediction comes true but time be fairbi heard september mentioned on my last trip to mcds.

this message will now self destruct and reappear on tw4tter

We really should revisit this on April Fools day.

The number of possibilities is not the probability of one of those possibilities occurring. Otherwise I'm doing the lottery on Friday with a 50% chance of winning.

Was hoping someone was going to mention Monty Hall

Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi-squared_test

My amateur view is if ava6000 is able to disrupt Stroma then it will make all other therapies more effective since they can get in to to the site of action

She was busy working her way through all the questions submitted last time but not answered.

Now trying to work out how to use excel to calculate RoI on new purchases

The inclusion of a SoC arm and primary efficacy variable screams P2

To me at least.

The reformulation nature of ava6000 rather then NCE suggests shorter pathway to regulation. That's suggests not definite (apologies I the fantasy magic calculator on blink).

I suspect increase in numbers but with an interim analysis built in - moves from 1b to P2/3 - far more pk and safety data including biopsies than original P1a planned. OK fantasy calculator checked and working