Member Info for RorkesDrift

Put enough dox is a single point in the body and you will get systemic levels. Put enough dox in a singles point and you will hit MTD.

The better question is "Is how close MTD is to maximum efficacy". But then you need to decide what efficacy is. Could be arresting disease progression or it could be destroying the tumour. If ava6000 does what it says on the tin then first is well below MTD. The later might also occur well below MTD - data will tell. MTD could be between the two - conservative working hypothesis.

P1b design will tell us which way company headed. If it goes ahead, massive inflection due to this promise

A handbag......

< Insert handbag emoji>

UK have reduced number of people who get vaccination. Can go to work if infected so why test - self certify well enough or not. NHS lacks bed capacity. Social care unable to support people who could recover at home. Virus has natural propensity to mutate and immunity is just a selection pressure.

What could possibly go wrong.

I'm thinking Tom probably needs to spend a bit more time outdoors, preferably without without taking his phone or coloured crayons

Posted by Sean on tw4tter.

The stock price is recently hovering near the early June support level of £106. If the upward momentum remains, the bulls can push the price above the £125 resistance level.

On the contrary, if the bears can pull the price below the previous low of £100.6, then AVCT stock price might melt down toward the annual low of £88, which will cause a downfall of roughly 18%.

I agree options are a valid way to incentivise employees. However, they are potential wealth not actual wealth - cost the individual nothing. With AS I think he does have a share holding in addition. When you add in his "free" options then he is potentially very wealthy. Hence these options should be awarded to be in line with existing SH interests not to offset his dilution on fund raise.

Not so much AS should be buying but lack of other directors activity smacks of complacency. Low SP mesns low execution price!!!

Will be interesting to see what the next execution price is of the next is. The 50% CoS I hope that's built in so £200 ex-China would be about right.

The problem is when is data not data. When its incomplete. Standard practice and good scientific method is to only draw conclusions when all the data is in. Two amendments to this are

1. Safety committevcan stop a trial. Either drug is not effective or its benefits mean its unethical to continue to give SoC. Unusual to do in a pk study on terminal patients but we have had an indication that some (not all) patients have been kept on treatment. We also know that some patients had to drop out - genuinely that's not a great feeling.

2. Interim analysis. This screws up your stats and if not preplanned then is a pretty poor approach.

So P1a has to continue as is. The company has however been on the cusp for ever :-)

Suspect board don't mind a bit of dilution - they can offset with options. These need to be linked now to SP or the Board need to put up some cash and buy shares in open market rather than be awarded for what is a pretty poor share price performance. That's not boosting and would give investor some faith that SP is good value. They would benefit when shares go up just like the rest of us and might focus minds on existing share holders rather than new.

In other news what is happening in diagnostics. AS took delivery of German:English dictionary but radio silence on how the significant splodge of new investment cash is performing. Not sure they are just getting on with it

My hope is that AS has something up the sleeve of his new Xmas shumper and can laugh at all my fretting. Tsk.

CJ.

You can tell I don't think the price will go lower because if I did I'd sell. I also thought the same at £1.87, £1.60, 1.37 (get in) and 40p.

I'm not focused on short term movement based on herd sentiment. I do worry about the company choosing to dilute rather than sign up a deal. SP is where bit is cause potential purchasers have a steady flow of new shares hitting the market. Add AS has stated a lower SP helps with new funding and I suspect new PI money sits on the side. I know mine is

I realise that this means I miss out on current price should the data cause a rocket but at that point the risk is also reduced.

Best way out is for milestone payments or a deal but then there would be no need for AS to supress the SP. I for one would like to see a little boosting.

IPad trader. It was worse than that. AS actually stated they were not planning a rise. Encouraged SP higher only for a hefty discount to be offered. The offer price was actually on here the day before announcement - so much for RNs

I'm struggling with the greater than 50% chance of success and the company's approach to the SP.

It felt like AS wanted a lower SP to suit potential investors. Surely those people would be happier with the data thats behind 50%.

That disparity is why I'm holding back on top up. Either I can buy at higher price but with more confidence or there will be a discount.

Might not have it right but going on what AS said at AGM. Looks like looking after friends in City more of a priority for company then PIs.

AS already talking about publishing the data in high impact journal and at conference.

Tone implies they already have something worth publishing. Add this to positive noises about progressing to P1b.

Not certain but reassuring and a way to go yet.

AS also implying that SH will not receive update until data published.

Our best bet is late breaking abstract at medical conference - walks the line.

Patience will be required.

Why would anyone need to be that enthusiastic about stuff they just made up. Funniest ones are the proofs that then rely on a made up fact to be true. Completion date of C6 being a good example.

The analysts have a value for Ava6000 at 19p based on the value other avacta assets must have was the most outrageous one yet but was repeated continually.

Next one will be P1b efficacy read out will be available 6 months after trial starts. Groundworks already in progress. Assumptions are every patient starts on day 1, there is no null hypothesis and patients are all identical with no variation. Regulators and clinical community will all suspend normal statistic adjustments for multiple interims and even if they don't avacta will give SH a running commentary.

We should be grateful that they have everyone else's interest uppermost and if we need made up stuff to make us feel happy they are here to serve.

Oh hang on....

HarChris - interesting those stocks all have higher than average volatility. Just the sort that could gain 10% should a group pass on a rumour they overheard in McDs.

My highest punt was at £1.87 which then went up to around £2.80 about a month before the no need to fund raise turned into the AS has been visiting USA for a year to fund raise. Luckily I top sliced for a free ride but I suspect quite a few followed these exspurts and bought at the top. Names change as do the made up facts but 10% trading continues.

Interesting when you say MrMcPumpy is well researched. I saw someone post a clinician talking about all the sarcoma trials and all sorts of different approaches. Taking a proper assessment of the potential market these would be considered yet poor Myles is only aware of those based on dox. That is just one of the many bits of research missing from "our" research.

On the other side of the coin he shares our positive thoughts and enthusismn. Whilst most on here are happy to congratulate ourselves on our insight and share thoughts and facts we don't really go out of our way to rope other people in.

The tw4tter self help circle group seem to need to persuade others. They put in a lot of time and effort and the converting their opinion (biased) into stated facts as if they were the mother Teresa of Aim is laughable. I actually think it depresses the SP since it comes across as the ramp it is.

We will all benefit when the time is right. Most of us happy to wait for that and I really don't give two shakes how many new share holders or existing top ups there are. Short term SP doesn't affect me

On the other hand tw4tter has become unreadable with made up nonsesense by a group who cannot even spell farmaceuticals. If you think they are interested in helping others have a look at what they said about BMN right up until its 90%+ drop.

2019

The Affimer technology has significant commercial potential outside therapeutic applications. Good commercial traction has now been established in the diagnostics reagents business with strongly growing revenue/order intake and an expanding sales pipeline of high quality, global partners. However, licensing deal flow resulting from technology evaluations has been slower than anticipated and the Company believes that the diagnostics reagents business unit now requires full-time and dedicated commercial leadership at its operating site in Wetherby.

In August 2019, the Company appointed David Wilson, a highly experienced commercial professional in the diagnostics markets, to the role of Commercial Director - Diagnostics.

Tick tock tick tock. Not the end of the world given Ava6000 but any slower and they would go backwards

The Avacta 2019 report is an interesting read. Would be good if all these share options preventing the Board buying shares were linked to delivery....

The first Affimer clinical development

candidate AVA004-251,

a PD-L1 antagonist, has been selected and initial cell line development successfully completed. GMP production of AVA004-251 is on hold whilst the Group focuses its resources on AVA6000.

Progress in the development of the AVA6000 prodoxorubicin has been outlined above. The clinical development plans (Phase 1b and 2) for this molecule include combinations with a PD-L1 antagonist in a range of solid tumours carried out with Avacta’s AVA004-251 molecule, or with a partner’s PD(L)1 inhibitor.

The first of Avacta’s TMACs combines an Affimer PD-L1 inhibitor with a powerful chemotherapy called AVA100 I-DASH (also known as Talabostat Mesylate) that kills macrophage in the tumour microenvironment leading to a significant inflammatory event that attracts the immune system to the tumour. The immune response is then supported by the presence of the Affimer PD-L1 blockade.

Initial efficacy data in mice have been generated by co-administration (two separate molecules) of the lead Affimer PD-L1 candidate AVA004-251 with AVA100 as two separate drugs as an intermediate step towards generating these data for the TMAC. These data show that AVA004-251 performs as effectively as Atezolizumab, a marketed PD-L1 antibody, and

also show a synergistic effect of the combination of AVA004-251 with AVA100 as anticipated. In fact, tumours in the animals treated with the combination of the two showed complete regression and developed an immunity to being re-challenged with the same tumour 60 days later.

In order to carry out the same evaluation with the TMAC, an appropriate mouse efficacy model that has been modified to contain the FAP enzyme required to release the chemotherapy from the TMAC has been developed. Postperiod end, the first data from this engineered mouse model were obtained and clear synergy between the released warhead and AffimerPD-L1 inhibitor was seen, causing a significant slowdown in tumour growth compared with the approved PD-L1 monoclonal antibody inhibitor Avelumab. A number of further pre-clinical animal studies are now planned for 2020 to investigate in detail the optimum TMAC structure.

Fits with AS stating a huge focus on Dx at AGM only for radio silence and time focused by Ava6000. Handy having lse board posters at meeting and some great sharing of info. I had assumed the announcement was more PoC diagnostics since the "strategy" for DX acquisitions was going to be covered. Without Avacta adding something to the mix (such as highly sensitive, highly specific) then so far they have just bought market share. Think it will come good in the end but there are glaciers that move faster. There was originally direct affimer pharmaceuticals rather than precision that have also been put on back burner but to be fair one big effort is better for SH than lots of little ones. With the research below perhaps avacta will announce another partnership e.g. with G.E.

Https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2023/nr/d3nr02160b