Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I'm struggling with the greater than 50% chance of success and the company's approach to the SP.
It felt like AS wanted a lower SP to suit potential investors. Surely those people would be happier with the data thats behind 50%.
That disparity is why I'm holding back on top up. Either I can buy at higher price but with more confidence or there will be a discount.
Might not have it right but going on what AS said at AGM. Looks like looking after friends in City more of a priority for company then PIs.
AS already talking about publishing the data in high impact journal and at conference.
Tone implies they already have something worth publishing. Add this to positive noises about progressing to P1b.
Not certain but reassuring and a way to go yet.
AS also implying that SH will not receive update until data published.
Our best bet is late breaking abstract at medical conference - walks the line.
Patience will be required.
Why would anyone need to be that enthusiastic about stuff they just made up. Funniest ones are the proofs that then rely on a made up fact to be true. Completion date of C6 being a good example.
The analysts have a value for Ava6000 at 19p based on the value other avacta assets must have was the most outrageous one yet but was repeated continually.
Next one will be P1b efficacy read out will be available 6 months after trial starts. Groundworks already in progress. Assumptions are every patient starts on day 1, there is no null hypothesis and patients are all identical with no variation. Regulators and clinical community will all suspend normal statistic adjustments for multiple interims and even if they don't avacta will give SH a running commentary.
We should be grateful that they have everyone else's interest uppermost and if we need made up stuff to make us feel happy they are here to serve.
Oh hang on....
HarChris - interesting those stocks all have higher than average volatility. Just the sort that could gain 10% should a group pass on a rumour they overheard in McDs.
My highest punt was at £1.87 which then went up to around £2.80 about a month before the no need to fund raise turned into the AS has been visiting USA for a year to fund raise. Luckily I top sliced for a free ride but I suspect quite a few followed these exspurts and bought at the top. Names change as do the made up facts but 10% trading continues.
Interesting when you say MrMcPumpy is well researched. I saw someone post a clinician talking about all the sarcoma trials and all sorts of different approaches. Taking a proper assessment of the potential market these would be considered yet poor Myles is only aware of those based on dox. That is just one of the many bits of research missing from "our" research.
On the other side of the coin he shares our positive thoughts and enthusismn. Whilst most on here are happy to congratulate ourselves on our insight and share thoughts and facts we don't really go out of our way to rope other people in.
The tw4tter self help circle group seem to need to persuade others. They put in a lot of time and effort and the converting their opinion (biased) into stated facts as if they were the mother Teresa of Aim is laughable. I actually think it depresses the SP since it comes across as the ramp it is.
We will all benefit when the time is right. Most of us happy to wait for that and I really don't give two shakes how many new share holders or existing top ups there are. Short term SP doesn't affect me
On the other hand tw4tter has become unreadable with made up nonsesense by a group who cannot even spell farmaceuticals. If you think they are interested in helping others have a look at what they said about BMN right up until its 90%+ drop.
2019
The Affimer technology has significant commercial potential outside therapeutic applications. Good commercial traction has now been established in the diagnostics reagents business with strongly growing revenue/order intake and an expanding sales pipeline of high quality, global partners. However, licensing deal flow resulting from technology evaluations has been slower than anticipated and the Company believes that the diagnostics reagents business unit now requires full-time and dedicated commercial leadership at its operating site in Wetherby.
In August 2019, the Company appointed David Wilson, a highly experienced commercial professional in the diagnostics markets, to the role of Commercial Director - Diagnostics.
Tick tock tick tock. Not the end of the world given Ava6000 but any slower and they would go backwards
The Avacta 2019 report is an interesting read. Would be good if all these share options preventing the Board buying shares were linked to delivery....
The first Affimer clinical development
candidate AVA004-251,
a PD-L1 antagonist, has been selected and initial cell line development successfully completed. GMP production of AVA004-251 is on hold whilst the Group focuses its resources on AVA6000.
Progress in the development of the AVA6000 prodoxorubicin has been outlined above. The clinical development plans (Phase 1b and 2) for this molecule include combinations with a PD-L1 antagonist in a range of solid tumours carried out with Avacta’s AVA004-251 molecule, or with a partner’s PD(L)1 inhibitor.
The first of Avacta’s TMACs combines an Affimer PD-L1 inhibitor with a powerful chemotherapy called AVA100 I-DASH (also known as Talabostat Mesylate) that kills macrophage in the tumour microenvironment leading to a significant inflammatory event that attracts the immune system to the tumour. The immune response is then supported by the presence of the Affimer PD-L1 blockade.
Initial efficacy data in mice have been generated by co-administration (two separate molecules) of the lead Affimer PD-L1 candidate AVA004-251 with AVA100 as two separate drugs as an intermediate step towards generating these data for the TMAC. These data show that AVA004-251 performs as effectively as Atezolizumab, a marketed PD-L1 antibody, and
also show a synergistic effect of the combination of AVA004-251 with AVA100 as anticipated. In fact, tumours in the animals treated with the combination of the two showed complete regression and developed an immunity to being re-challenged with the same tumour 60 days later.
In order to carry out the same evaluation with the TMAC, an appropriate mouse efficacy model that has been modified to contain the FAP enzyme required to release the chemotherapy from the TMAC has been developed. Postperiod end, the first data from this engineered mouse model were obtained and clear synergy between the released warhead and AffimerPD-L1 inhibitor was seen, causing a significant slowdown in tumour growth compared with the approved PD-L1 monoclonal antibody inhibitor Avelumab. A number of further pre-clinical animal studies are now planned for 2020 to investigate in detail the optimum TMAC structure.
Fits with AS stating a huge focus on Dx at AGM only for radio silence and time focused by Ava6000. Handy having lse board posters at meeting and some great sharing of info. I had assumed the announcement was more PoC diagnostics since the "strategy" for DX acquisitions was going to be covered. Without Avacta adding something to the mix (such as highly sensitive, highly specific) then so far they have just bought market share. Think it will come good in the end but there are glaciers that move faster. There was originally direct affimer pharmaceuticals rather than precision that have also been put on back burner but to be fair one big effort is better for SH than lots of little ones. With the research below perhaps avacta will announce another partnership e.g. with G.E.
Https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2023/nr/d3nr02160b
I've just bought bottle of head and shoulders and reversed it now that September is nearly here. I'd forgotten about the reverend so must check up how much BMN and 4D pharma have gone up in the last two years
Centurion.....
https://twitter.com/ScottLilley19/status/1690390641832796160?t=zUGM4nPiCR5c7f5Ll7V_EQ&s=19
See replies 🤪🤣
Its all cracking off. Dean Stent, thumb my bum and rah rah raspute, lover of the Russian queen are going to have to up their game
They are still going at it - I need some of whatever tablets they are on. Latest is
100% chance of success
FDA have all but begged avacta to launch it
Statistical significance at 6 months of P1b no matter how many patients involved or adjustment for multiple tests ( see stats 101).
Not sure whether repeating made up stuff makes it truer but I'm ordering the car right now.
If you posted nonsense on tw4tter 26 times per day for about a year and in that time the share price fell, would you stop?
Timster we are probably not in their price range...
This type of role they would normally let you go. Senior post with access to highly confidential docs so that option is better than gardening leave.
Added to that its not illegal to recruit someone and amend requirements.
Agree that it looks rushed and I've struggled to get my CV updated. :-)
Whilst we are all focused on ava6000 then both LG and Daewoong are progressing towards human trials. As is the case with precision these programs are about more than a single drug. Suspect we will hear about them one way or the other before P1b interim results which are a good 18 to 24 months away. At that point Avacta could have three separate programs - fingers crossed. There again they might be called takeda-avacta by then
Timster you tease. £200 but only if its ex-China
We now there are some AE at even low doses of ava6000. These are unlikely to be caused by the leaving group or ava6000 - my own magic assumption calculator says its dox leaking from tumour or converted by systemic dox.
Avacta already had a number of points on the pk curve when they stated C6 and possibly C7. The magic calculator suggests that they predict that more significantvAE linked to systemic levels will occur OR we see no increase in efficacy. Most likely the former.
Alongside this we need to consider that higher systemic concentrations in whole body volume tritrates to much larger concentrations in tumour.
I won't say that we need to consider that fap will become satursted at some point and adding more ava6000 just increases the amountb elimated before conversion
:-)
Now pass me that copy of what car magazine
Without wishing to reignite a discussion about enzyme kinetics, FAP is an enzyme. The data from this phase 1a study will contribute to all the other P1 studies that follow. It will also help inform any third parties who may wish to attach their highly toxic therapy to Precision and in so doing pay an ever increasing amount of cash upfront. Get in now, sign the deal before a much bigger, harder nosed competitor owns the tech and locks you out