Member Info for romaron

Here comes the cavalry. HYNs - both 98.25. Up 50 points from Thursday. That isn't accidental and without wishing to be rude - they know more than you and I do KO.

*Tullow HYN off a tad.

I left this humdinger out - "Remain committed to the UK being a decommissioning centre of excellence "

Is that looking forward and inspiring confidence?

Thanks for that L7. Sometimes the obvious eludes us.

I've only read it once but find it appalling. No leadership and pure appeasement. I know they [OEUK] are about as effective and self-serving as the CBI but can you imagine the US O&G industry penning something similar?

In the introduction I take particular offence at this: " From operators to the supply chain and across the lifecycle from production to decommissioning" - so without resistance we agree to Labour's intention to ban exploration.

and this "ensure access to capital throughout the transition for both green and transitional activity." - What about the 'traditional' development of an oil or gas field. Are the terms FDP and FID consigned to history? Do 'traditional O&G no longer need finance?

Then this wimpish sentence. "Continue offering of oil and gas production licences to attract investment in domestic oil and gas, including regular offshore production licence rounds that focus on infrastructure-led exploration and development of previously identified resources."

Whatever happened to balls. If this is the best the industry can come up with it deserves to fail. We've been given no respite or breaks. It is pure capitulation based on Labour 'being nice to us'. We need champions prepared to challenge government. Rolling over and surrendering has never worked. What is the risk? We're on the floor anyway.

What I don't get about Scotland is that I can understand the Independence debate but I really cannot understand the SNP stance on O&G. Its as though they [the SNP] speak for the whole country in the same way that Sadiq Khan speaks for the rest of England. Scottish Labour will dutifully follow Westminster labour. Do the majority of Scots really subscribe to the ideology of climatism? They risk more financially than the English imo. whatever happened to Scottish pragmatism.

“companies must see the UK as an attractive country to invest in”.

Not governed by a spiteful populist administration quick to tax raid and loot older industries and speeding up their demise.

Back to my point. A few politicians will read this. OEUK gets a pat on the back but has probably been totally ignored due to its vested interest. The investment community will ignore it. The effort should be made on explaining all of this to the British public and using social media where most news is read by VOTERS. Start by explaining the real cost and breakdowns of energy bills. I'm getting there but struggle with mine.

Bring on the bklackouts - then they'll take notice.

Stevo - press 'Esc' quickly - it often works. As always it's about timing.

Hi Dumbly, it is a frustration of mine. What are we always the red or amber line on a graph. The Free Speech Union meeting I went to on Thursday was an improvement on juststopoil but in many ways no better. You get entrenched opinion and repeated mantras and arguments. I shut off to many of the QA speakers as I'd heard them so many times before. I'm lucky enough to have insight (although I don't fully understand it) into the modern world and AI. Those involved in climate activism (both sides) haven't really moved on and it's like expecting the CBI or the Cof E Synod to lead us out of this stasis. We are suffering from POOR politics and an ideology of climatism. It isn't a scientific threshold any longer but a political threshold. That is no way to treat such an important industry

Our defence luckily is common sense and economics. The numbers don't lie and it is clear from the media that climatism is not for mainstream voters.

Energy independence today but more expensive. Almost NO interconnection.

https://grid.iamkate.com/

Https://grid.iamkate.com/

I'm looking at 07:35pm National Grid Live

Solar 0%

Wind 28.2%

Gas 32.1%

I'm more interested in the imports (interconnectors). Norway 3.8% and France 9.9%

I mention this because we know Norway's electricity is 92% hydro electricity whilst France is 65% nuclear and 12% hydoelectric. We can't compete there.

But that doesn't explain the number of battery buses operating in London. Doesn't appear to have been a problem?

3 distinct Focus groups in Rochdale. Q. “what are the biggest issues facing the country at the moment?” folowed by “What are the biggest issues facing Rochdale?”

“In every case NHS, cost of living and crime were raised far more frequently and by more people than world affairs. Others included education and schools, immigration and the management og the local council.” Sunday Times today. 

monkey, don’t you have climate up North? 

Great find KO 12:33

https://grid.iamkate.com/ more solar than wind. Still only 21% of electricity produced here by renewables and of course electricity is only part of the countries requirement. Smart meters will help future rationing.

Not really M - it included this "Keir Starmer attempted to calm sector fears last weekend, telling attendees at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow that work in the North Sea would continue “for decades”.

What work? Polishing wind turbine blades when the wind doesn't blow.

This though did cheer me up. https://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue

Of what spoils my breakfast. This headline in Energy Voice:

‘I can’t wait!’: Humza Yousaf goads Labour with call for Aberdeen election showdown in oil tax row

Then in the first sentence it resets two sides into siege positions. It reads:

"Humza Yousaf made a direct challenge to go head-to-head with Anas Sarwar in Aberdeen at the next election over taxing billionaire energy firms and supporting struggling households."

That is why nothing moves forward. Hackneyed insults that aren't even accurate.

Someone should ask EV what exactly is a "billionaire energy firm? if they continue to use it.

Hi Sekforde - No for two reasons. The company may not be able to buy them and that would require going back through the prospectus, you're welcome. It might even require an RNS. Plus, the company quite likes the freedom you get from how you spend the bonds compared to the RBL. The flexibility means a lot to EnQuest imo.

The second reason is that I asked IR if they had noticed the rise. This was the reply:

" I did see the rise in the dollar notes yesterday and, while it’s obviously a pleasing vote of confidence in EnQuest’s balance sheet strength, I am not aware of any specific catalyst for the move."

Hi Oct23 - I didn't mean the AIM market. More a hybrid way of marketing and selling the company to investors. The present market is broken imo and the presentations have stopped working. A complete workover of what remains of the UKCS is required imo. It is happening away from us in other industries and we're trying rinse and repeat. Look at Harbour today. I can't see what's wrong with them and it seems neither can Carlos Slim. The industry is looking increasingly dated in its appeal to investors. It needs a fresh approach imo. How can you have a system that shows up the CBI and WEF as just corporate entertaining and posturing when nobody picked Kier Starmer up for his blatant (or wilful) ignoranceat the cost of renewables being one ninth the price of fossil fuels. A start might be for the industry to rebrand the feedstock as hydrocarbons. They're not fossils - the executives might be.

Here's a thought. If we can get some predictability back into O&G regarding government intentions and less open hostility we would be left with a business that will never be popular but has many of the characteristics of a bond. An ability to pay a high rate of interest (a.k.a.dividend) plus capital appreciation. Fields have limited life that could match a bonds term. Stevo already values them this way to an extent. In fact we all do. Some clever marketing could perhaps relaunch the companies as an alternative investment. A kinda synthetic bond with certain unique guarantees.

Schlemiel - have a look at this example:

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg7052taf87-petrofac-ltd-9-75-21-26

All bonds start around a 100. It went to 35 in December. That's a company in trouble.

The global credit market is about 3X the size of the global equity market. They both revolve around interest rates and base rates set by Central Banks. Treasury bills and gilts form the backbone of any credit market and modern commerce cannot exist without credit. Foreign exchange forward prices are in essence the difference between two interest rates over the period and oil will be the same. Equity markets have been losing sell side analysts at a rate of knots and O&G has been harder hit than any industry. This is partly because of the move to renewables and funds exiting on ESG concerns (popularity of that is fading fast). It means you don't get the coverage in depth we once had. You've seen the impact of a Moody's credit rating adjustment and that puts more emphasis on the finance. This to me is just as significant.

The bond market because of its size is everywhere and little can happen without it eventually be picked up by its radar. We can't trade in the HYNs but we can in the Retail Bond. I follow it because all it takes is a quick look here - https://www.luxse.com/ and typing in Enquest (you can also get Tullow on here). The fact that we were doing fairly well at 95.75 gave me comfort but the large rise was a bonus. Something moved it and it wasn't a small private investor. Most people involved would know what they're doing and they aren't philanthropists. The rise is confirmation that Enquest is stable and a good bet.

Be Lucky.

I've been waiting for this. I missed it yesterday because I was out and the figures at a quick glance looked unchanged. There is another market that's interested in EnQuest too and it is largely based in the US. It dwarfs the equity markets and its investigatory research and diligence is of a much higher level and competence. Not in getting it right necessarily but always on the look out for problems and quick to downgrade. They even adopt the delightful term "vulture funds" which include high-yield bonds.

07/02/2024 144A 95.75

19/02/2024 RegS 95.75

22/02/2024 144A 97.75

22/02/2024 RegS 97.75

This is a massive jump - 200 points. Something is going on imo. I checked interest payment dates and they are 1 May and 1 November so not that and I cross checked against Tullow HYNs in case it was an across the board move and they are down a tad. If you're doing M&A finance is always involved. I smell a leak. It will reach the UK equity market.

I'm fully loaded. I hope others are too.

Https://dailysceptic.org/2024/02/22/europe-faces-industrial-wipeout-from-net-zero-73-major-companies-warn/

Relax. It is about Europe. We aren't in it and will soon have Ed with his hand on the tiller. He'll know what to do.

https://freespeechunion.org/event/cambridge-speakeasy/

i spoke to all of them including toby young. i expected tommy robinson and the cross of st. george with accompanying tattoos. i was pleasantly surprised. ross clark is very erudite but presents poorly. austin williams was the surprise. a slightly detached view but hit the mark many times. you were only allowed one question so i asked if they had prepared for the announcement following the norwegian offshore wind auction on 18 march when i expect them to use real

prices set by proper commercial entities; not govt ministers. this should give the opportunity to create division in the ranks of the climate activists. those who are prepared to drink the kool-aid will never change but many will once true figures are brought into the argument.

i like what austin williams said about mocking the activists. it doesn't work. it's akin to ****nal fans responding to an insult from spurs supporters; what do you expect. ross clark is often asked how much he is being paid by big oil. the answer is nothing but he responds by asking the questioner who is paying them. it threw him when i said what if they reply nobody; i'm doing it to save the planet. semi religious cant gets a foothold by not being demolished or ripped apart at its utterance. modelling was a joke as cod-science is proof enough. an ex mep and farmer there was good value. he declared that farmers are not on anyone's side and couldn't give a toss about climate activism. they worry about jobs and the economy nose-diving.