Member Info for romaron

Doubly appreciated CheshireLad. I don't enjoy indexes or trading commentary but you cannot operate in isolation of them. More than happy that you're following them and can give us a heads up. Agree with Modestus and whilst Indexes bring us a little interest they are only reporting what the wider world has done to our stocks. For EnQuest it is mainly Government policy which has caused the damage not the intrinsic nature of our product or our profitability. It hasn't done PFC any favours either. There are close ties (I believe) between PFC and ENQ and nothing would surprise me on future deals.

I think you'll be fine holding PFC just as we'll eventually pull out of this spiral as common sense and reality returns when the voters point out that being uncompetitive is no replacement for virtue signaling. Being colder and poorer whilst somebody with pink hair is allowed to throw pots of paint around and direct government policy is a vote loser.

Be Lucky

I'm kicking myself for missing this on 14 Feb 10:20 by Andre1 where there was a similar MSCI notification:

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Feb24_MicroPublicList.pdf

announcing our addition to the Micro Cap Index.

The one posted today by CheshireLad was probably issued the same day and was the other half of the move deleting us from the Small Cap index.

Guesswork here but fairly confident I'm right. These moves start to become obvious the closer we get to the Index reset dates. Obviously it works throughout the system up to major multi billion dollar companies and various indexes. If investors moved in and out on the same day there would be carnage so they announce a date in the near future (in this case 12 Feb for 29 Feb). That means those mandated to move in or out have the option of choosing when to deal or may even be able to keep the stock but it means an internal shuffle to move from one internal index to another. They are kinda bookkeeping entries and like our oil revenues for the year didn't all occur on the 31 December in one day. However, for bookkeeping purposes we get the huge UT which is the impact and total of deals between Feb 12-29.

They won't (or shouldn't) change much but did catch us sleeping a bit.

A negative to my previous post is that if we moved out of an index there'd be a quite hefty UT and I'm unsure if that applies. I think, probably not.

I'm out tonight so won't follow but this intrigues me. Here's a suggestion. I'm a Global Investment company. I want to increase my stake in a small oil company. One problem is the liquidity and I'd move the price against myself to get anything half-reasonable amount wise. There is a reporting day coming up where a lot of house-keeping occurs and attention is often elsewhere. I short a small amount enough to get reported on FCA shortly before the make-up day. I then trade for large at the fix (UT) where I get an appreciable amount on board.

We'll know tomorrow if I'm right.

Having said that what better time to disguise a trade. End of month is confusing but it seems bigger in relation to other stocks. Something occured imo.

I was looking at it too. BP and Shell are huge too but I don't know what they were yesterday. Could be a make-up reporting day. Voice of Reason usually knows.

Rumour has it that any recalcitrant CEO's of oil companies will be sent to a penal colony in the Arctic (without dinner money).

That would announce the closing of the UKCS for hydrocarbons and handing it over to susidised wind energy sector.

KO - who knows. There is another argument. In such a thin market whoever takes a position larger than average will push the price in the same direction. The sector is still unloved and buyers are rarer than hen's teeth.

Politicians don't live in the real world. Whatever one party does the other does the opposite or inflates/deflates. The point scoring at times would embarrass a children's playground. As for the planning plans of Ed Miliband you have to ask if he has learned anything in his lifetime. Lawrence Weston took 7 years (listen at C.11:45) in a committed part of the country where community energy and tipping statues into the river are high priorities https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/796759d3-8020-4081-b2dd-4d3643acf224

*note how charming Barry Gardiner is to fellow climate ideologs compared to his treatment of Linda Cook.

I believe this is relevant. I expect Land Registry to be somehow involved even if only on the periphery. I wrote to LR in July regarding an adverse possession for a small piece of land. As I hadn't heard I did a chaser and was told I'm in the queue with an estimated completion date of 14/01/2025. That's 18 months for something that's fairly routine. Good luck with that Ed. Nothing deters a zealot with belief.

Then there are the local authorities and their army of NIMBY's who have been shown the way by juststopoil. In your dreams Ed.

Bit of a strange one KO. I double-checked our bonds (HYN & RB) and they aren't convertible so nothing to do with the recent HYN buying imo. I wouldn't get too excited as it is tiny in the scheme of things and their black boxes can make the weirdest deals. Is it an out and out short or a short against another sector stock? I'm not gonna worry. Plenty of balls in the air for us to focus on. Budget, YE figures and my favourite the Norwegian gas auction on 18 March. I was talking to people not involved in the markets yesterday and without prompting they were aware of the energy narrative changing and that cheaper bills weren't being pushed so hard. The politics are changing and when was the last time we heard ESG being pushed? We need a few renewable companies to go to the wall. That would require the government reducing or taking away subsidies. I imagine Labour can see the trap but continue to walk further into it. Mystifying.

At end of month our next gas auction starts preliminaries. Without a step change in the renewable capacity procured this year – in AR6 – there are serious risks that the Government will be unable to achieve its target of 50GW of offshore wind by 2030, or its broader goal of a decarbonised power sector by 2035. Reading the timeline it says quaalification will be 20 May but I guess there'll be leaks along the way. Sealed bids in June and any adjustments to budget by gov.

I realise gas and electricity isn't our main line of business but they are conflated and confusing to both me and the public.

Result T-4 v2027/28 Capacity Auction

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/02/28/t-4-2027-28-capacity-auction/#more-71993

"But worst of all was the lack of interest of new build even to bid. Only 322 MW of new build exited the auction, mainly OCGT. This tells us that nobody is now prepared to even consider building CCGTs or other large scale generators. This is hardly surprising, given government threats to shut down all fossil fuel generation!

Of the 42.8 GW contracted, 28.6 GW is gas, begging the question of where our backup capacity will come from in 2030, if Labour win the election. Take away gas, all we are left with essentially are interconnectors:"

Https://mailchi.mp/298bb2d0191b/apple-pulls-the-plug-kills-its-electric-car-201204?e=35cf3821be

"But with 99 days to go until the EU elections in June, the narrative of a vibrant Green Deal continues to fall apart."

*Always pass on good advice, it’s the only thing to do with it. - Alexandra pub Wimbledon.

EV today: "The company has “moderated its 2030 target, but it’s still an exciting place to be”, Brown said.

Orsted’s current capacity is 15.7 GW and it aims to achieve 35-38 GW by 2030. “But it was 50 GW. That was really stretching how much we would need to deliver. So, we’ve a much more considered plan.”

Has anybody told Ed?

From the same article: "States in the US are also recognising pressure from the industry. “Typically they were bidding in at $100 per MWh, now that’s $150 MWh. At those prices, projects look viable. There’s a reset in the US, in the UK and for the whole offshore wind industry.”

Remember the wind auction that failed at £44 last September and there were stories about an uplift of 70% was needed? Well $150 is £119 so for us we would need an uplift of 170% at the next auction. Probably just a missing digit.

*I think that Ed will cover his gross negligence by focusing on onshore wind. It will cause ructions unless we move crofters off their land and build them in Scotland (its worked before). I checked the height of the Lawrence Weston 'success' story that I'm guessing will be used as a model. It took 7 years and has a 92m tower and including propeller is 149m at the tip.

*In Enfield the tallest building is a 101m - 30 storey residential tower. I expect some resistance across the country. My suggestion - build them on golf courses. Another factor is that offshore wind is steadier and stronger. Mind you, it wouldn't surprise me if somebody said that our wind is better.

There is another side to this Frac. You'll notice in Spain the preponderance of gas bottles for heating and cooking. In Ireland there are a lot of oil boilers and I only know about this because an old school friend smuggles it across the border. There is also 23andme. *At this point many of you will nod and say "I knew he'd lose it eventually".

The reference to 23andme was because it changed my life and I thought what a great investment it would be. It was private at the time so not possible then which saved me a fortune. The problem with 23andme is that you only really buy it once.

For convenience, hype and subsidy ASHPs have a siren call. If I had an oil boiler or relied on LPG I'd probably change. I'd also consider it if I was doing a total refit or a new build.

I'm suggesting that once the oil and LPG users are satisfied there isn't much of a market for ASHPs without legislation and subsidies. I think something similar is happening with EVs. They're lovely but expensive and difficult like a mistress. After the initial rush people start to cooly evaluate. Norwegians are rich and I hear they often have one of each (EV/ICE). They also have the cheapest electricity (92% hydroelectric).

Drive around a council estate and see how many cars would have difficulty accessing overnight charging and you can forget almost everything once you factor in apartments and block management.

I think we've seen the peak enthusiastic subsidised rush for both EVs and heat pumps. I wouldn't say no to either as a gift but frankly, life is cheaper and easier without them for me.

Https://public.substack.com/p/cambridge-university-climate-scientist

Listen from 15:00

Climate modelling is a huge industry along with astrology. Climate will decide our future and is measurable. Amazing, if so it is the only thing that is (apart from death and taxes). We've seen economists and scientists getting things wrong in each of our lifetimes involving some of the biggest brains out there. Everything is becoming subservient to 'climate'. Dr. Mike Hulme explains the need for humans to have a belief, a religion. He isn't accepting the hype and is looking at it in a cool, dispassionate and dare I say it, a scientific way.

In the shallow end where I paddle around I'll stick with being a contrarian and the fact that costs will impact whatever route we follow.

*latest from Goehring & Rozencwajg: "True industry insiders are all telling you to buy oil assets. The public market remains paralyzed with fear. Investing in the uninvestible requires a contrarian outlook and a strong stomach. However, we believe the benefits are well worth the risk."

On the plus side there was some entertainment https://twitter.com/MrAlexLawson/status/1762441046783398226

Miliband said he had a “good dialogue” with OEUK and the industry. “That dialogue is important in opposition and even more if we get into government.”

From his speech at International Energy Week this morning. Translated it reads that they've already rolled [OEUK] over and we aren't even in power yet. In their desperation to appear releveant OEUK are even sharing a platform with juststopoil (today 10:05 - 11:20 https://www.ieweek.co.uk/agenda). That is two corpses practising mutual CPR on each other.

I am though interested in the next panel which has BP and Shell in attendance but the big hitters from the majors seem to be giving the conference the attention it deserves imo. They have better things to do.

EnQuest aren't there it seems and that has saved a few quid though I did notice that one of our NED's, Rani Koya , is chairing a talk tomorrow 15:45 - 16:30.

Https://ourscottishfuture.org/brown-backs-plan-for-north-sea-2/

Quick read. Only Orsted and EnQuest get a mention (don't know if that's good or bad) "At Sullom Voe in Scotland EnQuest are in the process of adapting the terminal which has been processing oil since the late 1970s to enable the site to host new energy opportunities such as hydrogen production. They are also exploring the potential for a connection to the Shetland grid which would allow the terminal to operate on sustainable electricity from onshore wind farms."

Might be some leverage here: "Making use of existing facilities wherever possible will reduce the risk of a surge of decommissioning activity which given the existing tax system would place a significant burden on the UK Exchequer. A managed transition also matters for financial reasons. Under the North Sea tax regime developed in the 1970s the costs of decommissioning oil and gas fields which cease production falls in part of the UK Government – with the companies reclaiming tax previously paid. This process has already begun – eg at Shell’s Brent field – but there is much more to come. An estimate by the North Sea Transition Authority published in 2022 suggested that the total industry costs between 2022 and 2067 for decommissioning all upstream UK oil and gas infrastructure would be £ 46bn. The Exchequer cost in the form of tax repayment and reduced income from Offshore Corporation Tax is estimated at £ 21.8bn. The risk is that these costs will come much sooner if investors decide that the limited opportunities and the political risks attached to further investment in oil and gas development do not justify any further substantial spending. If as a result they choose to initiate the decommissioning process the costs to the Treasury through the next Parliament would be considerable." Otherwise just a rehash of what is already out there.

Hi Dumbly, I accept that OEUK should represent the industry consensus and if this is it then I will reevaluate my holding. We get treated like something that you've trodden on and are expected to be acquiescent. The Government have the upper hand but we could have a united response that doesn't have to come from a lobby group which if the CBI is anything to go by is ignored anyway (and pretty useless). The reason for the OEUK looks increasingly dated. It facilitates smaller companies advertising their wares and of course an annual awards event whilst at the same time giving employment for those looking for something less stressful with the comfort blanket of a .org.

If the likes of EnQuest, Spirit and Neo for instance were to put a moratorium on taking over old fields from the majors then that would attract attention. It is very marginal if they are profitable anyway under the present fiscal regime and that is promised to get more draconian. It would also maybe stimulate the majors to be more supportive towards those left on the UKCS. Perhaps we need to take some lessons from the junior doctors or the unions. You don't feed a crocodile hoping that it will eat you last.