Member Info for romaron

Https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/02/22/siberian-britain-nuclear-war-mega-droughts-european-cities-sunk-by-rising-seas/#more-71905

Https://antwerp-declaration.eu/

Over in sunny Britain we are protected from the idiotic path the Europeans are following because of Brexit. I mean - it doesn't affect us; does it?

Germany and Belgium look f*cked. Ed will save us.

I emailed IR to ask about what I saw as an error in the holding of Baillie Gifford between Morning Star and the prospectus for GEAD. I also enquired if there were a swathe of funds below the reporting threshold. This was the answer I received. I doubt it would be much different today.

"We do indeed conduct regular shareholder register analysis (on a monthly basis) as well as discussing with our advisors where trades have taken place if there has been a material move in our share price on an ad hoc basis.

Referring to your original note on 24 November, the holdings by BG would have been correct at the time of publication as the register analysis was used as verification. Unfortunately public records/reporting are not as accurate/up to date as our own analysis. Since then, BG have continued to be supportive, maintaining a holding around 6%. We also have a fairly stable “top of the register”, with 8 LT holders (excluding Amjad and his associated interests), but including BG) owning c.30%. We have also had a few new institutional holders come on to the register this year, between then holding almost 7%. If you add these up, we have a strong base of large institutions plus Amjad and his associated interests owning c50% of the shares. We do also have a number of institutions with holdings of less than 1%, but I would say “retail” holdings are relatively substantial at 25-30%.

When it comes to trading activity, the majority of day trading is done on what are traditionally retail based platforms, and this is also true on those “abnormal” days when the share prices moves more markedly."

*my own opinion of most day trades is that they are largely black box driven with automatic hedging and splitting. I bought 70,000 shares on Monday and when they appeared on the trades that day they had 'OFF BOOK' rather than the more common 'AT'. I made the trade with AJ Bell

The thing is these Tech companies make such HUGE profits without any government being able to rein them in it seems; and they're all American. They must also be close to monopolistic entities. Could we live without them? We once did - they all need energy.

I liked the bit about passive investing. It obviously directed my thoughts back to EnQuest. We are really in a backwater even compared to other energy companies. I don't think we're seeing many NEW investors and relying on our FCF to reduce debt and our tax credits. A slow process. Whilst trying to find the breakdown of SVT partners II was hoping somebody here knew) I came across an exchange I had with IR in November 2021 which kinda endorses what the article says. I'll post it next. It does make interesting reading with hindsight. Our base has hardly changed in over 2 years and that's hardly surprising with the political attacks and climate narrative.

I also refreshed my knowledge of Ineos. They also began by specialising in buying unwanted assets.

The downside isn't zero:

"US natural gas futures jumped more than 10% toward $1.75/MMBtu on Wednesday, after Chesapeake Energy slashed its 2024 gas production projections by about 20% by scaling back capital expenses, reducing rig counts, and delaying well completions. This move is expected to lower gas output to around 2.7 billion cubic feet per day. Other major gas producers like Antero Resources, Comstock Resources, and EQT have also revealed plans to curtail drilling activities this year. US natural gas prices hit their lowest since June 2020 at $1.522/MMBtu, driven by near-record production, abundant fuel storage, and above-average temperatures. Additionally, technical issues at Freeport LNG's export facility have limited gas flow to LNG export terminals, and record levels are not expected until the plant returns to full power."

Only renewables can deliver zero because they use taxpayer's money. It's when you require a profit without subsidies that the problems arise. Gas and oil are fungible to an extent. They both need profits to invest. Message to politicians - "you reap what you sow"

I don't believe it. I just looked up Lord Deben (John Gummer) on Wikipedia -

"He converted to the Catholic Church in 1992, having previously been a practising Anglican and a member of the General Synod of the Church of England. He has supported the creation of the Personal Ordinariate of Our Lady of Walsingham for former Anglicans who have, like him, joined the Catholic Church, including serving as an Honorary Vice-President of the Friends of the Personal Ordinariate of Our Lady of Walsingham.[29][30] In July 2018 he was awarded the Honorary degree of Doctor of Science (D.Sc) from the University of East Anglia.[31]"

If you've got religion you can ignore science.

Https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4176737/damning-indictment-lord-deben-intervenes-court-legal-challenge-government-climate-plans

"The government was similarly accused last autumn of failing to consult the CCC ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's decision to axe or dilute a series of decarbonisation policies."

If you stand back for a moment it does make you wonder who the f*ck the CCC think they are. It is like being dictated to by the General Synod of The Church of England.

*bad laws can be repealed or why not go the whole hog and burn fossil fuel heretics at the stake

Another point I forgot is what a hot potato SVT is politically - but in a good way. We saw what happened at Port Talbot but the NS O&G is still a large part of the island's economy and energy. More importantly it is a romaticised island of plucky crofters where much political capital would be made if they were treated as poorly as we did the steel workers in Wales by a considerable multiple imo. Then there is the National Security aspect from both energy and bad actors from the East. There is a lot to play for here and I'm not sure how it'll pan out but Labour, Tory and SNP know they'll get more favourable media treatment by being nice to the Shetland Isles.

That's a good point Stevo as BP ducked out of SVT in 2017 and passed it onto EnQuest (part of Magnus deal). Bear in mind we are more of an operator than an owner and we are just one of the shareholders.

"Sullom Voe Terminal is operated by EnQuest on behalf of the nineteen different companies which have an ownership interest in the terminal. The terminal receives production from more than thirty fields from the Brent, Ninian, SGP and Clair pipeline systems, from both the East Shetland Basin and the West of Shetland."

I can't remember who the other shareholders are but remember being surprised at the large holding of TAQA who are definitely not short of money and always looking for investment opportunity or virtue signalling.

In my wildest dreams SVT is a goldmine that BP sold too early (Ineos and Grangemouth?) and we know it would have fitted in with their [BP's] reducing production from the UKCS. I'm dealing backwards now but negotiations would have been in 2016 so we've part owned/run this gaff for a long time.

I also think it interesting that a young ambitious guy like Salman Malik seems to have leapt at the chance to run Veri. I imagine that the IR guy at Veri is Craig Baxter? I'm guessing that EnQuest are paying the wages; or part of the wages if the SVT partners are unchanged or with us on this project. I don't know how you unscramble it. Clearly there are more announcements to come.

Net Zero will be far more expensive than the public has so far been led to believe, top economists have warned the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, saying that governments will have to borrow more money to fund the shift to Net Zero, as paying for it purely through higher taxation was not politically feasible. “The problem is that Net Zero is very popular until people get asked to pay for it.” Telegraph today.

To your point about public indifference Frac. I look at the 'X' page for juststopoil. They removed a post yesterday regarding a recent Zoom meeting. I remember that it had 80 people logged into it (not me). That is an abysmal number. I'd imagine many weren't even for the movement judging by the fact that you get more comments/posts on their site from those ridiculing jso. It was probably the number who looked in and moved on. I didn't get involved but these things are just plain boring. They have become the Tooting Popular Front as far as protest movements go.

Politics is a cut-throat business that brings out the worst in people. I think Ed Miliband is a sop to the hard left of the Labour party. I imagine he has many enemies within the party who will bring his failings and the damage he is causing to Keir and Rachel. He is impacting the flexibility of an incoming Labour administration. I've noticed a gradual increase in ambiguity from Labour over energy which indicates that Miliband's influence may be waning. His zealotry on climate hasn't helped the party.

Hi Frac - So the actual reduction on the energy price cap will be announced on Friday. I expect the politicians to argue both sides but it isn't anything to do with wind getting cheaper and it ain't been that sunny.

The opposition to oil and gas is imploding as facts cannot be hidden forever.

More important for us is I believe the first Norwegian auction for an offshore wind farm on 18 March 2024.

"The auction will be conducted as an English auction with open bidding. In the auction, the qualified players will compete for state support by submitting increasingly lower bids until one bidder remains. The player with the lowest bid in øre/kWh wins the auction.

For competitive reasons, the bidding in the auction will be closed to the public. After the auction, the ministry will publish the name of the auction winner and the size of the winning bid (strike price). The winning bid determines the strike price that forms the basis of the two-way contract for difference."

The failure of the last UK auction in September was put down to the administrative strike price (ASP) of £44 per MWh was too low.

I think the difference here is that the Norwegian auction will have a winner because there is NO set price to be beaten going into the auction.

What it will mean is that with the alacrity that Labour have in cherry-picking Norway when it suits have made a rod for their own back. The companies involved in the Norwegian auction aren't ideologs and will have made hard commercial decisions. I expect an eye-watering figure and remember they were talking of our auction needing the ASP to be 70% higher. It might be the right time to remind Keir of his 9X cheaper quotes.

In retaliation I expect Labour to push for cheaper wind which is onshore with a relaxation and speeding up of planning restrictions. That may well be an election issue.

"That is why Labour will enter the next election with a manifesto for the most ambitious investment in homegrown energy in Scottish history, supporting up to 50,000 new good clean energy jobs in the coming decades."

Not wishing to appear pedantic but isn't that cancelled out by jobs going in the opposite direction?

So decades is more than one decade. So 50,000 divided by twenty is 2,500 jobs a year in Scotland. Some might be highly paid but if you were in the O&G industry and offered a chance to clean and dust solar panels you might also consider trolley management at a supermarket.

Don't they think the public are becoming a little tired of all the predictable adjectives connected to renewables? New, good, clean - it might work for Cadbury's but it now sounds like repetitive slogans. Juststopit.

It does gradually come together for those of us who never worked (or even got near) the O&G industry but you can see there is a lot of money and faith being put into EV's. This is the result:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-refinery-ma-stalls-buyers-shun-aging-assets-uncertain-future-2024-02-16/

EV's are inevitable and I am driving around in the motor car equivalent of a Betamax. Nothing really wrong with it but the zealots have won. Something similar happened with coal but it is still a valuable commodity. Maybe we'll all have EV's one day but oil will still be needed around the world and we'll need it ourselves for decades. The market looks as though we're already there. We aren't.

I expect there to be an overshoot and those still in the NS may well be niche in Europe but the r.o.w. will still be a market. The picture for EnQuest is improving all the time. The tax credits are what are saving us now. AB saved us during the worst years. The cost of renewables hasn't gone down in price as the politicians promised (Labour most egregiously) so I think we'll see some backtracking before the election. I'm very optimistic for our future.

Life without oil? - There isn't

*Prodopt - please correct me where I'm wrong. You won't upset me. On the chart (my 12:20) you can see how cheap Ukraine electricity is. Might explain why it was worth invading (and defending).

Hi Stevo - I believe the new German gas fired power stations will have to have the facility to be run by hydrogen. That is another pipe dream reliant upon technological breakthroughs that may or may not happen but it will keep the Greens quiet. I'm looking ahead as well and to prove I'm not a Luddite I've prepared a space on my patio to enable an electric passenger drone to land to take me to the pub when the price drops.

Messing around with electricity has cleared up one bug for me. I could never understand how come ASHPs were so popular in Norway. Have a butcher's at this https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/29/energy-crisis-in-europe-which-countries-have-the-cheapest-and-most-expensive-electricity-a

I'm only interested in two; GB v Norway.

GB 48.5 - Norway 14.6 and there's the answer. Without getting complicated electricity is too cheap to ignore in Norway. Here in the UK we are using arguments that you put in one unit of electricity to get 3/4 times the heat out (or equivalent of gas boiler) into a Heat Pump. The dopes at Labour H.O. think that if they [Norway] can do it so can we. The truth is that we'll never get the base electricity to the price that Norway manages with hydroelecticity. It raises a question of why are Norway even bothering to invest in wind. Insurance is the answer. Dams can suffer from drought and they also have a noisy Green lobby.

Important diary dates. They may affect the FY Results commentary with late adjustments to the 2024/25 outlook.

EV today "Who won rights to bid in Norway’s first offshore wind auction?"

It will be extremely important to the whole renewable energy movement/religion. I'm not a scientist but I think wind is fungible and our wind is unlikely to be much better (or worse) than Norway's wind. I've a suspicion and a wish that Norwegian's will follow the Scandinavian (and Scottish) trait of parsimony. It looks complicated but bigger brains than mine will translate the CfD component of the auction into a price that all those interested in bidding in our AR6 auction will follow closely and base their future bids on. I'm optimistically hoping that it will reflect the TRUE cost of wind electricity. It will spike the guns of all the ideologs promoting wind as the answer and it won't be 9X cheaper. I'm fully expecting it to be higher than gas.

There are 5 consortia bidding and Shell's bid is questionable. Politics will obviously loom large and I've a feeling that Ed and friends will try to either ignore it or spin it. Most won't even understand it.

"After the auction, the ministry will publish the winner and the winning strike price. This bid determines the strike price that forms the basis of the two-way contract for difference (CfD). The successful consortium must then sign a contract within four weeks of the auction, or face a 400 million kroner ($38m) fine. "

This could be where the industry begin the fight back. If there is confidence in the future of wind then we can expect competitive bidding. I expect instead a price that will show the fantasy world of Labour's 2030 sprint for clean energy by exposing the REAL price of wind.

But Labour have got themselves in a corner. This from the article "Other projections put the losses at a “best-case scenario” of 20,000 jobs lost, and at worst up to 100,000, were Labour to ban any further drilling – though it has not stated it would do so."

But Labour has said so. By removing incentives to drill by attacking the investment allowance it makes NEW fields uneconomic. So there won't be any drilling of NEW fields. Comparing us to Norway is facile. Why not compare us too the US or Saudi Arabia (without the wind)?

and later in the article "Stifel said: “If we try and focus on the investment we can see, everything I’m hearing is that 2024 is going to be the last year of major spending in the UK North Sea because of concerns over where the tax structure might be 2025-onwards.” Stifel look at it through the same lens as the O&G companies and their lenders.

On the North Sea Labour are woefully ignorant.

They are not like for like. I was watching Ski Sunday on TV and there were races from Kvitfell which I'd never heard of. I know we have mountains in Scotland but never heard of International ski racing from there (this doesn't really count https://dailyskier.com/2017/05/31/scotland-to-stage-first-ever-ski-world-cup-event/

In UK hydroelectripower 2.2%

Norway (where Kvitfell is) 92%

Norway has the cheapest electricity in Europe because hydro is the cheapest. The remedy/answer is simple. Build more mountains.

All this talk of transition is beginning to affect me. I bought the Sunday Telegraph today and found interesting articles that weren't extreme at all.

The profiteering that British Gas earns by exploiting a trapped customer base (which includes pensioners and the disabled) is getting out of hand. I'm no financial expert but the profits of Centrica were £751m. That's a lot of dosh.

This means that with a customer base of over 8 million homes and businesses in Britain they are making £93.88 on average from each customer. What is indisputable is that if you are a BG customer you are paying £1.80 a week EXTRA to this behemoth for merely enabling you to keep warm and watch the telly. Do the public really know that they are donating 25p a day to a company and group of shareholder who take these huge sums merely to keep them alive. I'm surprised nobody has taken them to the ECHR.

*The actual number is likely to be lower in fact because the split is something like 7.5m residential and 1/2m business and the businesses are larger and pay more per business than the poor pensioner freezing in the bedsit.

Ban plastic. Start making things out of turtles again.

“Although the Biden administration is hyping the toughness of [the EPA’s methane handling] crackdown—and we fully expect industry leaders to feign opposition to it—this new rule and the methane agreement struck at COP28 are early signs of a practical grand bargain between governments and the fossil fuel industry over climate change. The use of coal will be minimized in the West, replaced by natural gas. The developing world will continue to leverage coal to climb the prosperity ladder. Carbon capture and sequestration will be used to minimize direct CO2 emissions globally, and industry will do its best to eliminate methane emissions. Nuclear power will be accelerated to further decarbonize electricity grids, and the West will continue to tinker around with solar, wind, and electric vehicles, pretending that those can eventually play a meaningful role in the energy future.”

Global coal demand is smashing records. “What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite.” – Bertrand Russell

Book your next carbon pilgrimage to Azerbaijan - use the code COP29 to get cheaper flights.