Member Info for romaron

I'm not blaming you AOK for the presenters ignorance and soft questioning.

Hi Sekforde - yourself, Stevo and Dumbly think the tax losses are secure. I don't think it is the market (or public) perception and with the likes of Caroline Lucas, Ed Miliband and others commentary is that surprising? I think it would be a step to far even for them too but so far they have won the media war. OEUK came second. The majority of companies only offered platitudes as they were being raped.

You say 9 institutions have holdings. Take away Double A and you're down to 38%. Further reduce by Cobas (hedge fund) Hargreave and Avanza (largely small PIs) and it becomes 26.5%. If you dive into Schroder and Baillie Gifford you will struggle to find our holding. It is a fraction of a fraction. We aren't even traded that regularly and most PIs have moved on to more interesting sectors. Even the day traders ignore us. The share base is ageing and the 3 D's mean we will only drift lower unless there is a major change. I disagree about the reserves. The economic cut-offs could easily shorten their economic life. Look what damage the EPL caused and whose to say it is the last attack? The majors are giving the UKCS a wide berth - the proverbial barge-pole distance. The UKCS is in decline but I'd hardly call it gentle. A bit like asking how you went bankrupt - "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

I am used to being let down by the market reaction to EnQuest's announcements. I don't see Thursday being any different. Under Labour it will be practically impossible to obtain permission for a NEW field. That will lead to supply chain difficulties and speed up the rate of decline.

Yesterday in The Telegraph a headline read "Barclays is to stop directly financing new oil and gas projects." I read elsewhere that banks are recording record profits but no mention of a WFT.

Er, no. What is on their page is slightly different. "Oil and gas still meet three quarters of UK energy needs. Even as demand declines the UK is projected to remain a net importer out to 2050 and imported LNG has nearly four times the carbon footprint of domestically produced gas." - seems to me more about gas. Same as when Labour didn't ban coal. They said OK but without emissions. CCS may never reach scale and presently makes fields uneconomic.

I'll answer my own question. EnQuest have NO stand alone future. I'm looking again at our clear out of our "Senior Management". If Serica happened we'd be in a similar position. A declining basin with NO NEW developments.

Sekgorde - that requires us keeping up production. I expect our declines to speed up. No Bressay - how do you think we'll do it?

This will upset some of you but I think Stevo is more realistic with the situation. I wish he wasn't. I'll ignore the numbers because I'm not in the top stream on them.

This morning on Laura Kuensberg Labour's National Campaign Coordinator Pat McFadden (c. 9:46) was asked to comment on what OEUK said about extending the WFT to 2029 that it "will compound the turbo-charging of North Sea decline". It was dismissed by Pat McFadden as the fact that the UK O&G have never been in favour and are enjoying high prices and anyway brings us in line with Norwegian rates.

He also said that there is £200 bn waiting to be invested from the private sector. I'll repeat it shouldn't include us in renewables. When Labour blame interest rates let us remember that rates are just as high in Germany and the US and the last time they were this high was in 2008 - remind me who were running the country then?

We are in the charity shop sector of the stock market. Unloved and remembering the prices of when we were valued. There is NO cavalry coming to lift our price with this political background. We are giving away our Energy Security (in all its forms) on potential, promises and lies about the actual costs involved. I think Labour are trapped by their flagship mission and will continue on this suicidal path. I loooked briefly at Corbyn's manifesto of 2019 and it isn't very different from what Labour are espousing today.

I think I won the argument with AB when I said why not run the company into the ground? Both parties have given us NO other option. Thank goodness we have the tax losses - they can't take them away; can they?

World’s largest offshore wind farm delayed by bad weather

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/windfarm-dogger-bank-weather-latest-b2492756.html

Supporters of juststopoil said this was completely down to the O&G Industry who never told them that the North Sea could get very stormy and cold. Wavy too. And wet.

Germany has a hard decision to make and it is very emotional. Green energy is like a patient on life support with no hope of recovery. It's now only a matter of when the grieving relatives agree to switch the machine off.

Subsidies = sustainable

Labour's mission - to be unelectable for another generation by 2030.

Agree Modestus - I can immediately think of a dozen names that have incessantly attacked the O&G industry using spurious claims and pseudoscience that collapses when truly tested (Tessa Khan, Caroline Lucas, Dale Vince, Phoebe Plummer, Barry Gardiner, Ed Miliband etc.). Where are our champions? We have been slaughtered by kids and eco-zealots. The industry deserves this. It never stood up for itself.

Dumbly - it was the Tories that brought in the EPL. It is only a choice between who you choose to buy the industry executioners bullet from.

Should we dump SVT? The Shetland Isles are tiny. Population of 22,990 in 2018. Wind turbines aren't our business and with the demise of hydrocarbons its days are numbered. I'd say the renewables space is crowded with many technologies that will fail or not reach economic scale. Luckily we only manage SVT so the loss will be shared. Let Labour and Hunt handle the fall-out.

It brings us to another problem and drain on our resources. Veri. I read this: https://www.shetnews.co.uk/2024/02/09/enquest-floats-idea-synthetic-diesel/ The only thing I can think of is that Scotland has plenty of chip shops so a use for the old frying fat maybe? It is as ridiculous as that. We are making excuses for producing very, very expensive electricity. Why play their game? We are a tiny company that cannot afford the research and development costs that even Shell and BP are pulling back on. Doesn't AB realise that appeasement to politicians doesn't work? The Veri representative in the picture, Donna Sutherland, was until November 2022 (7 months) 'Projects & Bressay Project Manager' at EnQuest and moved to 'Infrastructur & New Energy'. We pay her whatever the title and also Salman Malik. I also note that Bressy is moth-balled unless she has been replaced. In my book moth-balled means abandoned. I read the exchanges on here between the numbers guys and have never seen an estimate of how much we are spending on projects that will most likely lead nowhere and be a permanent drain on resources. I do hope the amounts are tiny but I fear not.

I'm looking for leadership but it appears we are being tossed around by political motives and expediency. We need to fight back. We have little to lose.

I'm not hopeful on the update. When was the last time the market reacted favourably. They follow the media too and their is nothing around supporting the O&G industry in the UK. We are a cash-cow that is seen as more dangerous than Putin.

Labour “has consistently said it will work in partnership with business” . That is another half truth from Labour. The full quote imo is "Labour “has consistently said it will work in partnership with clean energy business but will speed up the closure of hydrocarbons in the North Sea".

From Energy Voice roundup today:

"In a statement the trade body noted that Labour “has consistently said it will work in partnership with business” and that it recognised the important role the UK offshore energy sector in the journey to net zero.

It complained that Thursday’s announcement was made “without engagement with the industry.”

That is despite Labour leader Keir Starmer’s visit to Aberdeen in November in which he met with sector representatives, who at the time reported a ‘frank and honest’ exchange of views.

Russell Borthwick of the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce said the Labour windfall tax announcement “let us down badly”.

OEUK chief executive David Whitehouse added on Friday: “Labour either can’t do the maths or haven’t considered the alarming jobs impact that will be felt up and down the country.

“With no new investment, 42,000 jobs will go, and we could start to see the effects as early as this year.

“These are not faceless numbers but decent, hardworking people working across the UK to provide the energy we will need today and in the future.

“The impact of no new investment will be felt across the whole economy – today we estimate the UK will lose £26 billion of economic value. It will undermine the very industry which can and must play a critical role in delivering a homegrown energy transition.

“Last week I listened carefully to the Shadow Chancellor promise that Labour will work in partnership with UK businesses. We’ve always said the path to net zero is through working together between government, business, and people, ensuring no individual, community or sector is left behind – that’s not what we’ve had from Labour. The least this industry, our people, and our communities deserve is an urgent meeting with Labour leadership.”

Speaking to Energy Voice, Mr Whitehouse said the announcement made by Labour yesterday was the sector’s “worst fears”.

He said that while the 3% increase in the headline rate of tax is “an issue”, what is more concerning to the sector is the removal of capital allowances.

“Fundamentally, what that means is the allowances you get when you invest will be slashed under Labour’s plan,” he said.

Hi Stevo - your last sentence highlights the selectively omitted details of the Norwegian model from Labour's constant diatribe against the UK O&G industry. They pick the 78% of Norway's taxation but omit the tax breaks and funding the other way. Labour are manipulating and quoting half-truths which imo are worse than lies. They have successfully obscured the actual companies involved in oil production who are unknown to most of the British public. The average voter thinks they're all oil giants. Labour aren't elected yet but have already made marvelous progress in alienating future investment from the private sector (which RR kept referring back to this morning). It won't be easy growing renewables without the support of the UK O&G industry.

Norway have incentivised oil producers as recently as 2020 "Norway's parliament in 2020 introduced temporary tax incentives to encourage petroleum investment at a time of low activity, triggering a rush of applications from energy companies." source; https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-approves-more-than-18-bln-oil-gas-investments-2023-06-28/

75% v 78% is one question but the UKCS is in a much steeper decline than Norwegian waters. Pointless me looking up the incentives that Norway dishes out as I wouldn't understand them anyway. What RR said this morning is the death knell for new developments. If CCS is 10 years away (if ever?) at scale the price/cost will make the UKCS uncompetitive and uneconomic. They'll allow existing licenses but they'll never get FDPs. It will end in tears but presently Labour are burning fossil supporters at the stake and their companies with them. Exactly what Miliband said to the coal producers. He didn't disallow them just set impossible emission limits. Isn't he clever. Let's see what happens when Estonia or Finland get invaded? BTW - what is the tax rate on UK tobacco and weapon manufacturers?

Thanks Frac - Rachel Reeves explains exactly what they mean . You can listen here at 01:48

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001w19n

Clean power by 2030 means NO gas or coal in electricity EXCEPT form fossil fuel produced with CCS at scale as part of the supply. Good luck with that. Their plans are based on investment by the private sector (companies like Orsted?). I think they may a bit nervous seeing what they plan for the O&G industry. They also promise an "extension on WFT on BIG O&G companies. They also have plans for floating wind but basically I think they expect that carpeting Britain with onshore wind turbines and extending the grid by driving though planning objections is the actual plan.

Labour promise Lower Bills and Energy security

Before the Ukraine invasion we had Labour making the same promises. Indeed the figure you should look at is 2021 so let us say 20p per kWh. Natural Gas in 2021 ranged from 2.33 – 5.60. In 2022 NG ranged from 3.50 – 9.33 (Aug 22) finishing the year at 3.27. In 2023 gas became cheap again. Its highest was 3.72 in October and is now below 2.00.

All this can happen again but we now have foreign LNG and Norwegian NG to fall back on and is anyway only a proportion of our electricity generation with the bulk from wind and solar. There will be forecasts out there for future electricity prices so it is time to start asking Labour what price they expect electricity to be once they are in power. There are leads and lags in pricing electricity as we saw in the middle of 2022 when Government help was required and the EPL was brought in.

The failed auction for CfDs last September (AR5) does not augur well for the next auction. The next round (AR6) has started but I can’t make sense of it. It looks like the notification of the auction has several options starting from May until July. We have a rough idea of the new bids (up 70%) but how it translates to energy prices is beyond me. It looks like the earliest successful bids and contract signing is July. There are second bite appealand claims for non-qualifying applicants stretching to September but I’ll stick with July. This is likely to clash with recess and election fever. It will be a mess with counter claim and lies as we have grown used to.

We need business leaders to stick their necks out and make sure the public know the true costs and the risks in condemning the fossil fuel to history. A prison diet of EPL gruel will not give Labour the luxury of a proven and world beating industry that they had on their doorstep. A disaster is looming for Britain.

I checked my electricity bills from Oct 21 per kWh with Bulb then Octopus:

Oct 2021 - 19.8670

Mar 2022 - 27.8470

Nov 2022 - 33.387

Mar 2023 - 65.30

Apr 2023 - 48.93

July 2023 - 29.26

Oct 2023 - 26.60

Jan 2023 - 27.82

Yours will be similar. Labour promise "Lower Bills". I have to assume that refers to electricity and extends (eventually) to EVs and heat pumps.

Hi Frac - it would help if you gave the name and source of the interview.

Dumbly it is not nationalisation without compensation. It is confiscation.

Ed Miliband's response.

Following today’s announcements, Labour have confirmed we will fight the election with a world-leading climate agenda:

Great British Energy 🇬🇧

National Wealth Fund 🏗️

Warm Homes Plan 🏠

British Jobs Bonus 👩🏼‍🔧

Local Power Plan 🔋

No new oil & gas licenses 🛢️

2030 clean power ☀️

What does "clean power" really mean?

Fron the NSTA website:

"We hold industry to account on halving upstream emissions by 2030."

Translation: we will reduce emissions by making new developments economically impossible and penalise the last producers for having the temerity to be one of the few successful providers of energy in the UK. Our future lies in importing fossil fuels from overseas.

Https://mailchi.mp/51667c079eb7/retreat-from-net-zero-is-underway-200880?e=35cf3821be

download the pdf.