Member Info for romaron

Hi VoR - I don't really disagree. "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is as true now as it was in the 1930's. I read headlines like "NATO warns of all-out war with Russia within 20 years". Would you see Finland or Sweden giving up on fossil fuels if they had them? Then I saw a climate crisis warrior state that flooding paddy fields to grow rice drowns weeds but produces too much methane as they decompose. So they want us be defenceless and starving. Not a lot of point in tanks, ships and planes if you can't move them.

We need to suffer from a shortage of fossil fuels to prove their importance. Presently almost all our needs are served by imports. I do hope the exporters continue to be nice to us.

Agree its not shorters. No buyers is the reason. There is always a market using the 3 'D's. Death, divorce and debt. Problem is all 3 are sellers.

Sekforde - how dare you post optimistic projections. On those figures we'll just be a debt-free money-machine within 2 years. Assuming the sp doesn't move and remains basically static whatever is going on (Harbour?) and continual hostility promised by Labour then where are we going to stuff the money?

I'm left confused but strangely comforted that AB has behaved routinely. From memory this is his 3rd CNBC interview. To me (could be wrong) it means he intends to be around a lot longer and that is good news. I was disturbed by the decimation of EnQuest's old team but it is possible to explain and accept - Richard hall, domestic - Salman Malik leaving a sunset industry and making CEO at a young age - Stefan Ricketts off to mega-bucks at NEOM. There is also the possibility that their replacements may be just as good or better and refreshing teams can bring new life. Then the fact that much of the operational stuff is, anyway, done by contractors.

We are near to the company making returns either as buybacks or dividends. Personally I'd like a special dividend for patient LTHs who dipped into their pockets in past crisis. I don't blame AB for ESG evangelism, shale and the Saudi reaction or Covid. The Ukraine benefit was cancelled out by EPL and Gaza could be unpredictable. In an unstable world there has never been a greater need for Energy Security and even if the politicians ignore it the military will not.

Today with Harbour showed just how unwanted O&G is. I think we're in a better position because they are in a better position on paper but we have actually reached rock bottom. Once your annual FCF v market cap are valued in lower digits than a car leasing deal you realise how ridiculous the valuations have become.

We are the deplorables and the 'new' coal. Coal has been a good investment the past couple of years and it went through the same trajectory we have. It is well worth rereading this from a Modestus post.

https://pracap.com/just-smash-the-buybacks/

Https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/nimbyism-will-not-save-the-countryside

Those of you who live in what is described as "the countryside" please stop whingeing about wind turbines and grid connections spoiling your view. It is for the greater good and we're gonna need a lot more. Here in the capital we need to protect our historical golf courses and parks. It is a little selfish of you anyway when you have so much 'countryside'; especially the Scots.

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein

Piece in Energy Voice "North Sea boss calls for new licences to be issued until 2035

Francesco Mazzagatti called for the UK to develop a more coherent energy transition policy inclusive of oil and gas producers."

It repeated this basically https://www.rockroseenergy.com/francesco-mazzagatti-takes-the-stage-at-world-energy-capital-assembly-conference-and-shares-insights-with-the-energy-council/ which dates back to November 2023. I looked up the speakers and there were quite a number but none from EnQuest. There were some heavyweights attending.

I'm just wondering if the timing is significant? These things are seldom accidental or is it just another slow news day. I'm intrigued to know if AB is at Davos and will he give an interview.

I don't want you to leave. You are in the RB so you certainly don't want EnQuest to fail. I read your posts but don't usually respond because frankly I trust the company and don't understand the intricacies and tax as fully as you do. Now if you want to talk bend resistance in pipes or Katame-waza I can help. If you do change your mind it is simpler to say that you want your arguments to be demolished and you are more the devil's advocate. I couldn't understand your obsession with understanding the debt structure and rates. You dive deep and perhaps I should have said - "Stevo, type in enquest.com and go to investors and the debt structure is there; easy to read and understand. Going down your route (prospectus and reports) can be a bit wood/trees. In fact at one time I was going to ask you about the Term Loan Facility which was raised (imo) to pay off the RB that was due and not taken up by existing investors - now that is expensive but if you're making 15%+ who really cares? I'm from the school that says getting the loan is more important than the rate and any company our size (inc. debt & production) in this sector would struggle. It was a bit smoke and mirrors and the analysts wouldn't have missed it. I've had run-ins with KO in the past but he is a genuine investor and mrc does have some good insight. Both can be bristly at times.

My argument was more that the decline argument has been gone over so many times in the past and is a physical/scientific fact so what is the point of saying ours is especially high? It's what we do. Interesting nugget whilst here I read this about Golden Eagle - "The acquisition contributes to the shift in EnQuest’s portfolio from late-life to mid-life assets, with field life extending to 2030s" . Maybe we'll see an improvement there, I missed 'mid-life' asset.

I am retired and have more time than most to follow the idiocies of the eco-warriors which I think have run their course. There is resistance building because when challenged their arguments don't hold-up. We had a poster on here who knew sod-all and was spouting about hydrogen. That is decades away along with batteries big enough to store excess wind power or light enough to power an airliner.

I hope you'll post again and accept that my occasional response may be a tad disrespectful but not meant to be taken too seriously. You responded well to my post of 9 January. More like that please.

Now I'm going to pat myself on the back with my forecasting in a post of 8 Jan "Meanwhile the supporters of Net Zero are becoming fewer and quieter. Events dear boy!" Now some may say that Macmillan used that phrase before me but it has never been more true.

Be Lucky

I'll keep it under the 2P subject heading although it is really about the move from 2C > 2P. From this mornings upbeat article from EV regarding Rosebank.

"It currently shares equity with partner Ithaca Energy, which holds a 20% stake, though recent reports suggest Equinor may offload a further 20% share in the development, thought to be worth around $1.5bn."

I'll accept it's a big leap forward but if the 2C reserves of Bressay 115 MMbbls net 2C and Bentley 131 MMbbls net 2C were ever progressed to 2P then using the Rosebank metrics you are looking at a value of $2.56bn and $2.92bn.

Never say never. Energy security is moving centre stage and staggeringly expensive, intermittent renewables are not the answer.

Steady Frac _ 900 years isn't that long in climate terms. I'm still arguing with Enfield over their waste of a £1m basically on heat pumps and my complaint is sitting next to the Spurs one for £2m for 240 acres of parkland on a 25 year lease. Looking a lot better on the Green front. juststopoil had to join the Free Palestine march to get a photo-op. There is an absence of crowing about how cheap renewables are on still freezing days. The numbers speak for themselves and the Yemen situation hardly helps. Qatar has stopped using the Bab el-Mandeb Strait so expect European LNG prices to rise and there's an article in Energy Voice valuing Rosebank at net $4bn to owners. On the downside oil reservoirs continue to empty when oil is produced.

Touch a nerve did I Stevo. I made one google and came up with this - https://www.offshore-technology.com/data-insights/oil-gas-field-profile-kraken-heavy-oil-field-uk/?cf-view

It shows the production growing from 2017 to 2020 and declining from then. Most fields seem to have this curve but I don't have the in-depth skills that you profess. I'll admit that I'm not a reservoir engineer/surveyor.

It is a ridiculous argument you present out of context. EnQuest are experts in end-of-life fields and because of the fields nature decline rates are at different stages but always declining. It happens to my beer in a bar. In fact most fields start the decline in a very short space of time from first production (shale even worse).

The reason I say your argument is facile is because I'd buy a field with 25% + declines if I could get my money back within a year or had some reliable seismic that suggested new reserves or improved technology. Then there is the macro view or .... sorry, I can't be bothered to continue.

I won't be reacting to any of your future posts.

That's what I said. Maybe AB is cuter than we all thought. Curate and preserve the field (Kraken) so that the reserves can be exploited when either a) Brent is much higher or b) the fiscal regime is more favourable.

I've discussed this in the past Stevo and with AB and posted on here. I've moved on. Don't you think it about time you did too?

Stevo - at first I thought you were responding with the Norwegian treatment of O& G taxwise so that is a small blessing that you didn't harp on about that. Older fields decline even higher than 13% but you want it to be generally accepted that 13% is the average. If Ithaca get Rosebank going and we get Bressay out of the starting blocks you'11 get sub 8% for a few years. It's what reservoirs do. Norway are planning for an O&G industry beyond 2050 with the backing of their people. The opposite of that is what KO mentioned in that existing UKCS fields are worth a lot more with the rarity value. Norway needs us for the security we can provide. Nothing in oil is simple and we have waited years for sentiment to change. It has needed two wars to even gently apply the brakes (I'm calling the Houthi attack the preliminary to a long drawn out war as an Iranian proxy). ESG and eco-zealotry has a religious fervour attached to it and the slogans and repetition of arguments without scientific backing encourage the naive and dimwitted.

I don't believe in heaven either. It is no surprise or coincidence that the Pope and Archbishop of Canterbury are on the side of juststopoil.

Your 9:04 post was spot on except you're trying to nail jelly to the wall. You can pick almost any number and make a case. I think there has been a massive overshoot to the downside. I understand Sekforde's frustration but as in the stages of grief I've moved on from where he is. I accept that the price of O&G and associated industries are too low which is why I am quite active away from the message board attacking the lies and manipulation that ESG are based upon.

Just a thought. Davos next week. It'll be interesting if AB attends and gives an interview. He can hardly ignore "Energy Security" and his intimate knowledge and background will give him a platform. Maybe he should just run it past Hunty if he speaks. We'll be up the creek without a paddle in a few years - will they have solved the 'Two States' problem by then?

There's a lot in what Stevo is suggesting and I think it boils down that the EPL just added to the direction of travel. I remember Xcite when there were dreams of $8 a barrel if it ever got to the FDP stage. The post that Modestus made on 7 Jan with this link should be read in conjunction - https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/britains-net-zero-disaster-and-wind-power-scam

The world and his brother were rooting for ESG and there was an arms race to declare just how much better and cheaper renewables were and the term FREE was used a lot. I think there is a lot of subjectivity in valuing reserves when there shouldn't be. I suppose you could make an argument that 2C should be treated as Zero value and then you can only bring 2P down as they decline over time and in a nutshell you have EnQuest. Added to the fact that the UKCS has the most hostile regime, both physically and fiscally in the world. There are a lot of countries and people wanting the UK to fail economically and they've been winning. Ukraine and the Yemen has rudely intervened.

What can they say now "maybe LNG is more expensive now but renewables are still cheaper" when electricity bills rise whilst our NG went down. Meanwhile Germany is going back to coal. Hertz is abandoning EVs. European farmers are showing balls and getting public support and Sadiq Khan folds at the first opportunity to tube strikers.

The money-tree is still there for the eco-zealots but I imagine that Hunty and Ed Miliband are not the two most popular or trusted politicians at present.

The look on Keir Starmer's face when the reality of the political decision to bomb Yemen spoke volumes. He looked terrified m- words do matter - Sunak seemed much more Statesmanlike.

In times like these the military show their value and the public get behind them. Does 'Energy Security' include the O&G industry?

I imagine there are seismic changes going on in the background. Perhaps we should have stayed in the EU. We could open up the coal-fields.

Stevo - that 13% is boll*x. You're in love with double digits. Old fields have higher declines and that is the fault of the government in making sure that EPL prevents new fields getting FID. Get a Rosebank and a Bressay producing and you'll see the decline rates tumble.

"People's memories are maybe the fuel they burn to stay alive." -Haruki Murakami, writer (b. 12 Jan 1949)

Very poetic but I prefer gas and oil. Let's hope the gunboat has done the trick (I have my doubts).

It is of vital importance that we protect those imports of oil and gas (LNG). All ours is sold abroad, apparently - at a disgusting commercial world price.

This evening in response to the escalation by the Houthis from Yemen in attacking shipping. The government has been distracted by the Post Office scandal and we could have a much larger conflagration if Iran (Houthi and Hamas backers) get involved. About time.

You can't do a slow walk in front of a tank (actually you can but it is unadvisable).

Why does government hate us so much? Blue collar and traditional trades are the ones that suffer most from crazy eco-zealotry. The Unions have had enough and the farmers in Holland and Germany have risen up. I read that only 3% of Labour MPs have actually had a 'real' job and most come from a lobbying, charity and NGO background. What have *Tessa Khan, Caroline Lucas, Barry Gardiner and Clive Lewis ever done that gives them the right to influence policies that they know F*all about. I'd ask them all if they know what Swarfega is?

*I picked those 4 who attacked Linda Cook at the Audit Committee.

In War Games it was put up that AB being of Palestinian extraction might be a barrier to a deal with a company that has a large Jewish stake and (I believe) tacit support from the State of Israel (Energean same).

I t was put to me that it is almost impossible to deal in oil without bumping into a Jewish banker or lawyer. We have interest rates on our loans (not Islamic loans) and NM Rothschild provide financial advisory services to EnQuest. We were negotiating with Delek in 2016 so they are not unknown to us.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwSh9AsPGZE

* Mr Myerson started his career serving as a helicopter pilot in the military and the police force where he led aerial and ground operations as a formation and sector leader. Mr Myerson served as the CFO and CEO of Ithaca Energy during the Group’s transformation journey. Mr Myerson has a degree in Bioinformatics from the Bar Ilan University, 2005.

This conversation was a few days before the Hamas attack on Israel. It is possible that Gilad Myerson was recalled as a reservist but I suggest he is more important in helping secure oil reserves for Israel. Caroline Lucas flies regularly to see her son in the US and it would be interesting to get her view on energy security without fossil fuels in the case of another hostile attack whether in Israel or the UK.

I have thought of an answer to the point she is glued to in that oil is exported at the world price and would not make energy bills cheaper. A huge chunk of the price of oil is expenditure made in the UK (opex, capex) and tax revenues when the price is high enough. When the oil price drops oil companies are not a drain on the social security system and do not take money away from free school meals. The industry exists WITHOUT subsidies which cannot be claimed by renewables. Tax incentives are a regular activity to encourage investment across a range of industries. The industry needs to hone its responses to these outrageous claims that are a complete dissembling of how international trade works. If she is right on oil then we should produce more cars and sell them domestically at (say) 25% of the cost of producing them. Time to retaliate.

First Skidmore now Chris Stark the head of the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

https://mailchi.mp/bf3f72e9d0e1/climate-change-committee-boss-should-have-been-fired-200252?e=35cf3821be

What next? A CBE, well paid job in the renewable sector or an investigation into the computer "models" that have deceived the public and cost the country billions.

Just throwing it in. The last few years AB has been interviewed at Davos. It's next week.