Member Info for romaron

Https://twitter.com/RachelReevesMP/status/1768977766668509527

Yesterday 15 March Any Questions BBC R4 presented by Alex Forsyth: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001x5c8

One of the guests was Louise Haigh, Labour Shadow Sec. of State for Transport. Around 15:30 she was asked about the new system of environment land management system that replace the common agricultural policy. She waffled on and said it involved a “trade off”. The presenter then pressed her about what was the “trade off” and she excused herself by saying it was outside her “knowledge” as she was in charge of Transport.

She wasn’t so shy later (28:00) when pressed on how Labour was going to fund public finance plans. She said they had plans for “an extended windfall tax on the soaring profits of oil and gas giants”.

Amazing that she know FA about farming but is an expert on energy. It just goes to show what happens when a decent presenter tries to nail a politician. It was a very poor performance by Labour and they stick to repetition. There is (it appears) no directive from Central Office to change the narrative.

Hi Frac - I follow this guy. He says that Ukraine could easily sink a Russian oil tanker but doesn't want to upset Biden by sending prices rocketing. Possibility of SPR being used again. I'm not worried as it will need to be replaced whatever the eco-zealots think. Desperate times call for desperate measures. The public aren't told this stuff but it's real. He has laid out his opinion quite succinctly.

https://twitter.com/Big_Orrin/status/1769052496234684466

He also posted on 15 March the following "Interesting how much cfds in brent have changed over the last week. Were in huge backwardation now in small Contango."

This relates to the front end and is important. Seems a big change going on that only the professionals will truly understand. As far as I'm concerned these aren't insignificant and oil won't be getting cheaper.

Https://open.spotify.com/episode/7reZvNsfM8ivQ001MOTSGD

Something will break through the idiotic situation whereby individual safety is ranked lower than green ideology. It started this morning as TV presenters were scanning newspapers looking for a story. The veritable "butterfly flapping its wings" and creating a tsunami of common sense throughout the UK. I'm going with it and suggest others do too; post, mention, write, email to your MP and council as a concerned citizen/voter. Gaps are opening up and the cavalry of cheapness was never there.

This is the story: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/03/15/patients-will-die-thanks-to-the-nhs-net-zero-drive/

Https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Energy-Quantamentals-%5EN2-Myths-and-Realities-about-CTAs-Final.pdf

" The business of a quantitative fund is like a casino where the edge on individual trades is rather small, and one needs to conduct them repeatedly across many commodities to ensure sustainable profits. Unlike stocks and bonds, commodities were also attractive because selling futures was as easy as buying them, allowing traders to capitalize on trends in either direction. Finally, since futures trading does not require committing much capital upfront, besides a relatively small exchange-required initial margins, commodities bets could be highly leveraged."

In the article it explains how backwardisation works and how the original CTA's were attracted to this market. They are the casino and they always win in the long run. Over leveraging can be disastorous and the amounts are enormous because the returns are almost guaranteed and you have to place a lot of bets. Black boxes are now called AI. Human frailties are programmed out.

"Relatively small changes in optimized parameters of the momentum strategy could lead to drastically different performance. As the result, many systematic traders often learn the harsh reality that oil momentum works until it does not."

It doesn't explain the human impact of "climate change" but if the model continues working then you stick with it. The problem for us is that you have to be a casino to understand and afford it. Luckily this is a trader's dilemma and fundamentals will eventually come to our rescue. I'm sure onedb will enjoy this simplification and I'm only posting to show what we're up against. I enjoy the odd flutter but the Cheltenham winners are the large bookies.

I realise this is only one element of the oil market but it does underpin the trading and will influence and leach into the performance of stocks too. I'm much simpler and just think that profit from an essential activity never really goes out of favour (that is until Stevo confuses the hell out of us).

EV article about NS production:

"Assets owned by Harbour Energy, Shell and BP have earned promotion to the top tier, while certain Equinor, TotalEnergies and EnQuest assets have been relegated. The data, compiled by Dundas Consultants through companies’ statutory production reporting, represent hubs which accounted for 58% of total production from the UK sector over the course of 2023. There’s no change to the top three, made up of TotalEnergies’ Elgin (1st) and Culzean (2nd) and BP’s West of Shetland hub Clair. But the tail-end has seen major change on 2022 as TotalEnergies’ Shetland Gas Plant, Equinor’s Mariner and EnQuest’s Kraken hubs exit, replaced by Harbour’s Tolmount (15), BP’s ETAP (14) and Shell’s Gannet (13)."

I suppose it includes gas so not clear where we'd sit in a table of oil producrs on UKCS.

Steady Frac - the roads in Scotland are empty compared to here in the "smoke". You can't compare the importance of (say) Epping Forest and a theme park for hill walkers and sheep grazing.

First minus I've seen. Not holding nmy breath for an electricity bill rebate. https://grid.iamkate.com/

Record February Subsidies for Wind CfDs

This brings the total subsidies for all technologies in the first two months of 2024 to over £409m. This compares to the £333m allowed by Ofgem for the entire first quarter of 2024 in their latest price cap calculations. They allowed £1.38bn for the whole of 2023/24 and that total has already been exceeded, because over £2bn has already been awarded.

This along with ambulance drivers worry about charging electric ambulances and best of all -

"Swedish utility Vattenfall is scrapping a project to explore the possibilities of hydrogen production on offshore wind farms and transportation to shore, nearly two years after it began."

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Vattenfall-Ditches-Project-to-Produce-Hydrogen-From-Offshore-Wind.html

Don't underestimate politicians Egremont. There is a hard core of eco-activists but they are becoming increasingly marginalised as their ridiculous arguments and promises are meeting actuals. Who will they vote for? Greens for sure or maybe Labour. I sense that Labour are beginning to realise they have become a liability and Dale Vince has distanced himself from juststopoil. I'd imagine that the followers of stop cambo/rosebank are also following juststopoil so there is a lot of double counting. Politicians are pragmatists when elections come around and it is only if the general public go along with the eco-activists that they will worry. The actual number of activists is tiny in the scheme of things and their vote is not that important (in fact many are anarchists and don't vote anyway). I see that split widening as the public (a.k.a. voters) see the extremists floundering with weak arguments and only ever promises. The 9X cheaper than O&G quotes in 2023 are curated and will be brought out agian and again. Repetitive maybe but Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband are on record with public statements repeating this particular shibboleth. It ain't true. It is not even close to being true.

We all know how the media can be manipulated and the value of propaganda but do you really think that Labour wants to see UK O&G revenue disappear? The Tories are belatedly becoming aware that it is an issue and they have got themselves in a corner too but it isn't as tight as the one Labour is in.

I think that both parties will welcome the outcome of the REMA consultation as it will give them excuses and will also be looking closely at what is happening in Europe. It isn't looking good for Holland or Germany and we could see them rowing back drastically on renewables.

Very few people are envious of the lifestyle of Roger Hallam.

You have a lot of my thoughts in there Dumbly. We have been extremely lucky with the last two winters 2022/23 and 2023/24 both being mild, wet and windy. This will be used by the eco-zealots as an example of global warming but should also be a tester for the claims over the cheapness of renewables and who knows what the next winter will be like (only eco-zealots can predict the weather ) The ignorance surrounding the transition is unbounded. Germany's OBR published a devastating report (it's in German and you can't copy & paste) https://www.bundesrechnungshof.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Berichte/2024/energiewende-volltext.pdf

because renewables are unaffordable and unreliable according to their independent auditors. No doubt our eco-warriors will say it's irrelevant as we're not a member of the EU and anyway, it's windier here.

Something sneaked through yesterday was this https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/review-of-electricity-market-arrangements-rema-second-consultation

I'm sure it's important and I understand little but I was intrigued by the 'Counterfactual schematic' which I think concerns the Alice in Wonderland world we now live in.

We are definitely on the same page when it comes to searching for suitable vehicles to get the message across along with short messages and videos that will alert the pubic to what is actually occuring behind the lies and hype.

Oh Frac - you're just another unreconstructed dinosaur. The Indian jobs will mean a transfer of graduates from the Indian coal industry into the cleaner hydrocarbon industry. That's a good thing isn't it? Meanwhile the graduates over here will be able to wear a beatific smile as they go out into the fresh air with their squeegee mop to clean the solar panels and polish the turbines. What's not to like?

You really need to look at the bigger picture.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlCt3yHosGM somje early reaction to the documentary/film. It aligns me with Jacob Rees-Mogg which for me is uncomfortable but more damagingly the right wing of politics which attracts older people and will almost completely bypass the majority of people who won't watch the video because they don't search for the news and prefer to be fed it via the internet. What we really need is power-cuts. Imagine the outcry if access to Instagram, mobiles and keeping warm was threatened or hospitals couldn't run. I'm wondering who will supply these new gas power plants. They last 30-40 years but the opposition says they'll only be needed for a few years (a lie). Who will buy these power plants if they're threatened to be obsolete within a few years? It won't be a company that values returns against capital outlay. Make the renewable companies responsible for intermittency. We're told that solutions are always 'just around the corner'.

Make them put their money where their promises are. On this at least Labour are clear and the solution is GB Energy and we know who'll be paying for that.

“If countries are forced to choose between clean energy and keeping citizens safe and warm, believe me they’ll choose to keep the lights on,” she said. [Claire Coutinho yesterday]

The present battleground is electricity via renewables which is c.20% of UK's total energy use. Our battle is oil. I am actually pleased that the renewable interests fight back with mantras and promises which sound ever more preachy. The real killer though is that renewables will require an ever bigger slice of GDP and always be in need of subsidies which cannot be hidden for ever. What government is brave enough to tell the truth about the cost of renewables? Against this (if they get their wish) is the extinction of producing hydro-carbon production in the UKCS. That means the revenue produced is no longer there. Where will renewable subsidies come from then?

I also like the emphasis on "zonal pricing". The Jocks will like it but London will want a refund via the Barnett formula because we certainly won't be having any windmills on Hampstead Heath or Wimbledon Common.

I spoke to Ross Clark at the FSU in Cambridge on 22 Feb. He is very erudite but his skills as a presenter are limited. He told me that he was granted an audience with Al Gore of 7 minutes that lasted only a couple because he asked Gore uncomfortable questions. He described it in a soft flat monotone that spoiled what was actually a good anecdote. He is certainly not what is known in this area as "talent". That is what we are lacking. Name a champion of hydrocarbons who has "charisma"? I posted a link to a short film @ 10:01 full of facts supporting and explaining the advantages and importance of O&G. It got 1 tick and I doubt many of you bothered to watch it. It deserved zero ticks for its purpose because it was dry and lacked interest and would have got a 0% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. I am in contact with Andrew Morton and haven't the bottle to tell him it was well intentioned but a failure if getting support for NZW is the aim. It is pointless preaching to the converted. We need fresh blood.

The biggest problem is that supporting hydrocarbons automatically means you are Right leaning, well-off, couldn't care less about children's lungs and the reason food banks exist etc. None of which are necessarily true but that is how the sides line up. It obviously only applys to the extremes because the majority couldn't care less but always ready for a handout and given the choice would prefer to breathe fresh air (don't know where this leaves smokers, vapers and barbecue lovers?).

We are reaching a pivot point but I worry that we won't take advantage of the hole in the renewables argument in that they don't work continually and are horrendously expensive. Presently the greens have the higher moral ground though it is undeserved. The activists will always be here and move from one crusade to another (Palestine current favourite). The only glimmer of hope is that Labour politicians less ideological than the leftists are aware of this and may come to our aid. I don't hold out a lot of hope for help from the Unions as they can be bought off. Posting on here takes away some of the angst surrounding our situation but repetition hashn't done us any favours so far. There is an opportunity for a break-out but I worry that the industry won't take it. OEUK leadership isn't fit for purpose imo and our only champion appears to be the Daily Telegraph and GB News. There is a vacuum here for other outlets to move into. Why we kowtow to the likes of jso and Chris Packham escapes me. Their chanting has become religious dogma.

Did I get that wrong. Have the company ever paid dividends?

I hope you are making these suggestions to the company and not just venting on here. I'm sure companies are loathe to issue dividends or commence buybacks in the current climate as it is often twisted into oil giants rewarding shareholders. Maybe it is time to risk the possibly bad press with the simple response (if EnQuest got a mention) that for EnQuest shareholders it is he first return in 14 years.

Not sure what I think of this short film launched today by Net Zero Watch. It's only short (12 minutes) but not sure it will be watched by many. I'd be interested in your views. It needs shortening and further simplifying to get the attention of the public imo. It comes over as dated to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scYlWiunJo4

Https://grid.iamkate.com/

Https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/03/11/the-german-energy-transition-threatens-to-be-an-unaffordable-unrealisable-disaster-according-to-the-governments-own-independent-auditors/