Member Info for romaron

"seven other countries added new coal power in 2023 too, gem found.

those were indonesia, india, vietnam, japan, bangladesh, ****stan, south korea, greece, and zimbabwe.

but gem also partly blamed the global net increase in coal power on rich countries stalling plant closures amid the energy crisis in 2022."

i think you're missing the point frac. the coal is necessary to produce electric cars - and other countries need it to upgrade their grids to run ev's and grow renewables.

in total agreement with your 22:24 post. doctor hilary cass could show a few politicians what integrity and science is. most decent people accept another's sexuality and gender in the same way we appreciate their personality and political choices but we don't try and indoctrinate them into our beliefs and opinions. especially when they are fundamentally crackpot. young kids are notoriously fluid and easy to manipulate. bring in drugs (hormone treatment and puberty blockers) and you're in a really dangerous world.

doctor cass's bravery is complete. going against the shrill demands of activists can be career ending. the majority of people go for the "quiet life". gps swerved and passed on enquiries to these evangelists (who charge for this). let the nutters carry on with their plans because some of what they're doing is good for society but there is no sweeping answer to life and problems it brings. it does though require oversight by professionals who are neutral. i must say that at present it seems the opponents of o&g are crouched in the bunker. maybe there'll be no end date to renewable hysteria but it will just instead fade away with people making their own choices on ashps and evs. or maybe they justcan'tmultitask and have moved on to protesting over gaza?

Campaign group Net Zero Watch has condemned yesterday’s ruling by the European Court of Human Rights [1], and says that climate catastrophism now represents a clear and present threat to the rule of law and to democracy. The court ruled yesterday that the Convention right to a private family life meant that Switzerland’s government had to change its climate policies, despite a 2021 referendum specifically rejecting the idea.

In an article published on the campaigning organisation’s website, its director Andrew Montford has pointed to the astonishingly broad interpretation of the legislation, and noted its alarming parallel with what was seen in 1930s Germany.

The judicial activism of the European Court looks very much like the judicial activism under National Socialism. The judges have abandoned the text of the convention in favour of “interpretation”. We face a real threat to the rule of law.

The impact of the ruling, which is binding on all signatory countries, including the UK, is that climate change policies must be put in place, regardless of the costs and benefits. It is therefore, by definition, irrational.

We shouldn’t be surprised. It is now clear that climate catastrophism is a religion, and as Andy West explained in his recent GWPF book [1], religions are not rational things, operating instead by generating feelings of fear in the subconscious mind.

West also points out corruption of institutions, including the legal system, is normal expected behaviour for upstart religions:

If it's clickbait KO then it's not working. I can't see it picked up anywhere? I think the young cultists haven't yet mastered multi-tasking and can only spray paint or protest at Starmer's home. They also have Gaza to contend with so they have basically ignored the EnQuest story. As for Labour and Ed Miliband - nothing. Maybe we've won. If the other party doesn't turn up isn't the incumbent the winner (ownership (license) is 9/10ths of the law).

A question for tomorrow? I agree that gas is the first target but I imagine it's hard to get the gas started without sucking up some oil that will have to be processed and dealt with.

Hi L7 - it was hidden in the RNS of the 28th:

"Presentation to Analysts and Investors A presentation to analysts and investors will be held at 09.30 today - London time. The presentation will be accessible via a webcast by clicking here.

EnQuest investor relations team will be hosting a presentation via Investor Meet Company, primarily focused on the Company's retail investors on 11 April at 14:00 - London time.

The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 9am the day before the meeting or at any time during the live presentation.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet ENQUEST PLC via:

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/enquest-plc/register-investor

Investors who already follow ENQUEST PLC on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited."

I hadn't made a note and wasn't reminded so thanks.

On Telegraph digital 460 comments so far. Being the Telegraph the large majority favourable.

Could we even have an RNS tomorrow? Has ABs hand been forced? All speculation but for me it looks like the Kraken wakes.

Tomorrow will be interesting. The digital story is by Jonathan Leake the Energy Editor at The Telegraph and is timed @ 7:57pm. What will be interesting is if Labour react or just ignore it giving tacit approval. EnQuest will have been advised about the best approach and who is to say whether it has been giving approval (or at least no objections) from various regulatory and government departments. It isn't a late Friday announcement and should attract the fury of Tessa Khan and her valkyries along with the usual subjects tomorrow when it hits the inky press. Is it testing the water or a Millwall statement? EnQuest aren't breaking any law and have the necessary licenses in place to move the projects forward. It mentions TWO fields. Jonathan Leake would have got this information from both OEUK and EnQuest where I'm sure he has excellent contacts. AB knew about the release of this release on 28 March. I'd say he's tidied up a few loose ends in the past few days. I'm expecting more news. Good news.

Summer is coming.

You're probably right Mansardman but they are an extreme version of what can become embedded and accepted as true or civilised behaviour for a just cause. For them it is either black or white. Amnesty International were yesterday attacking Israel for not releasing on humanitarian grounds Walid Daqqah a Palestinian 'writer' died of cancer whilst being in custody for 38 years.

They didn't mention that his crime was being the leader of a group that held a 19 year old Israeli youth hostage and before executing him gouged out his eyes and castrated him. I have no 'dog in the fight' regarding Israel and in reality neither do they imo. ECHR and Greenpeace etc. don't represent mainstream opinion and never have but they managed to get 'climate change' into law. It was called weather when I was growing up and the arrogance to believe that we can alter the planet's destiny has replaced religion for those that need to believe in something.

"No amount of beief makes something a fact" - James Randi, magician and skeptic

Ooops - this is the December one https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1737409504155721853

The Tories and juststopoil are history. Youth Demand has risen phoenix like from jso perhaps hoping we wouldn't notice or maybe they justdon'tcare.

Spot the difference - today: https://twitter.com/youth_demand/status/1777691848783319194

December https://twitter.com/youth_demand/status/1777691848783319194

Support ordinary people in civil resistance. What's normal about this mob?

They should be locked up in a safe place. Incoherent ranting suggests they may be as much a danger to themselves as the public. Why do you think they have swung to attacking Labour so early?

Https://twitter.com/youth_demand/status/1777345177293627770

Increased pocket money

Louder music

Removal of 'parental lock' on home computer

We refuse to inherit suffering but a flat in Pimlico doesn't count

Counselling for hostage-takers in Gaza

No more smelly things that make our life so comfortable

Vegan meals for dogs and cats

Cheaper drugs and booze

... it goes on.

At their age my dad was getting shot at (and hit) helping free Europe (he was also a coalman for a while).

That's a terrible indictment. An industry that survived without subsidies (investment allowances are de rigeur for all industries in the UK) and kept the lights on when the country went through massive transitions in the past is now being closed down on the spurious claims of agenda driven eco-zealots who are in the main privileged and protected from the lack of energy felt throughout Africa and other poorer regions of the third world.

An interesting article in the ST by Oliver Shah writing about water and electricity. The bail out of undercapitalised energy providers cost £22.7bn which is £94 per household. The O&G industry probably paid for all of that with its heavier taxation even before EPL. The amounts are irrelevant. The difference is more imortant; we survive and pay into the exchequer and EPL is the thanks we get for it.

Water has indeed been a money spinner for foreign owners. Monopolies are like that. With no market forces, regulators are all we have to keep behaviour in check. No doubt we'll soon be importing water from abroad. The demands on water companies is making them unprofitable too. Nationalisation invariably is more expensive than privatisation but I can't see much alternative. If the next government use O&G as a template there is no future for water companies and it'll only be a matter of time before they tax wind and sun.

I am that confident that we are through the worst that I have tentatively started looking at diversifying a little from EnQuest out of profits but still within the industry. BP or Shell is not for me but I do like the look of Harbour. I avoided Premier and have followed them for some time. One of the biggest attractions is that it suffers in many ways like EnQuest but the PI holders there are not as clued up as on here. In fact they are making a glaring error that I’m not prepared to share publicly at present. They can do their own research and if I am going to buy it hardly helps me to promote them. Presently EnQuest make more sense and the rewards will be much higher imo. It also depends on what EnQuest do in the next months.

Both EnQuest and Harbour lack popularity and the market valuation reflects this. I was looking at the price of Brent and as long ago as 27 March 2024 the price was $80.35 If the present trend continues we should crack $100 on 18 April 2024. I’m being flippant but is it really that outrageous that oil will remain higher? Investment in the industry has been abysmal for years and little EnQuest was the biggest driller in the NS in the past 5 years. The cult of climate activism is worse than religious fanaticism and we can see where that got us. Carbon credits are the modern “indulgencies” and no society in the world wants to become poorer in the future. The shrillness and embarrassing childishness of the supporters of “renewables only” reached a new low imo over Easter. Did any of you see this - https://twitter.com/JustinHeIsJesus/status/1774162724294980065

There are clues scattered all over the place and we now have some intriguing management and board appointments. The caravan politically seems to have moved on and it remains to be seen if Ed holds on to his position of clown ringmaster. We have no way of predicting the future but I reckon they’ll still be having trouble with Iran, Putin and Israel after the election. Energy Security is important and it is rising up the charts.

*Another EnQuest investor rather rudely described me as Ramper Ron from Romford. That is inaccurate. I don’t come from Romford.

Build it and they will come.

There is a good chance that EnQuest will move higher in the near future with either an asset purchase or M&A and it is time to speculate on the outcomes. Recent posts by Papegoja and AoK respectively about share-holdings and analysts are important.

Papegoja’s (29 Mar) numbers are guesswork but we have a much larger direct PI holding than most. The remaining funds are not the classic pension types. Even though Baillie Gifford and Schroders are big names you’d struggle to find their EnQuest holdings and as a percentage of their investments is a fraction of a tiddler. Take away AB’s family interest and I’d say it’s closer to a 30% share of large holders. Of course there are other large holders who are below the surface around 1%. We are ignored for a variety of reasons. The main ones are the ESG cult of Net Zero with its COP festivals and government hostility. The Majors saw this early and moved production out of the UKCS. The WFT was purely political but I doubt it will be rescinded before the election and after Labour will be desperate for revenue. I doubt they’ll risk making investment in the sector impossible. This means that if you want guarantees with dividend and a quiet life the closest you’ll go with O&G is with BP or Shell. Most investing is done by the big funds for you and the chat boards reflect this. It is the sheer weight of money that propels them into the FTSE 100 and attracts analysts because hardly any pension fund in the UK doesn’t have a Shell or BP holdings.

Because of that we are in a backwater, lowly valued and not even of interest to trackers https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php the reduction in sell side analysts has been of the magnitude of 30% within the EU and even more pronounced for small-cap companies. You could argue that with the reduced coverage we at least don’t have sell recommendations but the serious side of it is that there is no publicity or encouragement to buy. The likes of Malcy or David Lenigas are not a good advert for the industry. However, we are where we are but the future is looking far brighter imo.

I have a perspective on ESG as my daughter’s partner works as an Account Director for a PR company that represents many. I asked him how they were doing and he just said “they’re going bust”. The wheel has fallen off the ESG charabanc because there has been a mountain of promises that have failed to deliver. Compliance officers don’t bring profits or revenue to a company and that is what most of them are. They are being found out daily and it is accelerating. This brings us to the next few months ahead.

(more)

Hi AoK – I think sell side analysts are a thing of the past to some extent. We aren’t really big enough to warrant coverage either; added to the fact that the whole industry has been ignored by many companies since they started attending ESG indoctrination classes.

Of course, it means that many companies fly under the radar. If we can get some political and fiscal stability to replace the current uncertainty then we should really fly imo.

I'm more interested in the jobs she held at BNP (2006-2018). They are one of the few remaining banks active in O&G. They seem to be like a rash whenever RBL gets mentioned. They're involved in more O&G deals than any other European bank that I see. It's not what you know but ..........

Hi M - our water quality is about the same as yours but better than Germany and The Netherlands. Most of mainland Europe is no better than the UK (see 16 UK Waters Megathread https://twitter.com/LoftusSteve/status/1659637753158545414) our beaches are as good as Europe's too.

Nothing is perfect but reading our press you'd imagine we have rivers of sewage running past our front doors and we queue to collect fresh water in buckets. UK waters are actually better than they have ever been. I love the blame on CSO's. They're only 150-200 years in use and are ubiquitous throughout Europe. In actual fact the present government has done more than any past government and I don't have shares in Thames or vote Tory. It suits media to have outrageous attention seeking headlines. Another cause of overflows is blockage (wet wipes and fatbergs?). Activists seldom have anything good to say about this country. I wonder why they want to live here? Under their terms when nobody voted them in. I'm not defending Thames Water but it is more a financial problem than nasty foreigners owning our assets. The publicly owned ones in the UK are in an even worse state.

Is down today and worries about Fed tightening. Both our equity and HYN's haven't followed. Maybe Energy Security is a real thing?

Latest from McDan are out: https://mcdan.com/price-forecasts/

These guys are pretty respected but they can't tell the future either - along with us and the politicians. They are a best guess and make a mockery of using today as a projection of the future. Even algos don't do that and play the day to day.

Just 3 months ago they had Brent at 77.00 for all of 2024 and 78.03 for 2025. This month they know the first 3 months of 2024 (83.00) and the next 9 months are forecast as 84.50 making the year 2024 average 84.13 and 2025 80.58.

For us $7.00 a barrel is over a $100mio to the published revenue before it gets divvied up; not inconsequential.

Interestingly they have 2027 onwards the same as the forecast 3 months ago. I suggest that is more a case that nobody really trades that far out so you can probably ignore them.