Member Info for romaron

The shares are being stored for employees in the Employee Benefit Trust. No cheapo shares for the vultures. This means that AB + EBT is probably close to 20%. We have a dictator with skin in the game. I like this. Does the 2 month window mean that they are finalising a deal?

And the wording is always suspect mrc. Do you support world peace, universal suffrage and an end to sectarian strife. Most would say YES but if at the bottom it asked you to pay £5,000 pounds towards these ends you might reconsider.

The climate alarmists have used up most of their ammunition and their threats and promises have come to naught and causing damage to existing industries. I believe that the Scottish people will be the battleground. If you can't get them onside then the renewables movement has failed. The country is after all the major source of UK hydro-carbons and wind.

It depends how you frame the questions.

AoK - the challenge would need to come from two directions. The costs and evidence that hydrocarbons do not harm the environment.

The flaky claims of the climate alarmists are now being challenged more openly. It was thought once career ending to say you don't believe in ESG or the effects of CO2. Now people are pretending that they never really supported it. With the importance of Scotland in all this I think we are due a major surge. A large part of the SNP's policies were around Net Zero and they have had to abandon their targets and Yousaf might lose a no confidence vote. If there is a Scottish election that could be a referendum on continuing with O&G or treating the industry like criminals.

Labour will take note of the Scottish anger. I'm angry and I'm not even Scottish. The touch paper has been lit. Let's see where it goes? It can hardly worsen the situation for us.

'It is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.' and this is a quote from 90 odd years ago when initial renewable discussions were commenced and it was decided to concentrate on wind power as being less controversial than solar which was a rarity in Scotland. The deep-fried Mars bar brealthrough was to change all that.

Waldorf have financial pressures and are small. RockRose is small too and their track record is short. Neo is a peer but also trying to exit the UKCS. For now I would add NEO so a peer group of 5 over a certain size production wise?

It might hopefully help us ascertain what assets AB might look at from the remaining sellers in the basin.

It is a lot to take in but it seems (to me) that the majors have all but left the scene in the UKCS. I'm suggesting the 'Peer Group' of mini-majors is.

Harbour

Ithaca

Serica

EnQuest

In the closing of the Ithaca Eni deal I read this: "although it should be noted that the Merger Ratio was determined between the parties on a relative net asset value basis rather than with reference to market share price." This to me is an admission that with the current political uncertainty the prices of all parties in the NS it is one of the worst indicators of value. Both political parties are guilty of this and I wonder what happens when they need the partnership of the remaining O&G companies? For sure they don't trust each other.

Spirit is still about and is predominantly gas (96%) not surprisingly with Centrica owning 69%. I think we can leave them on the sideline from a peer perspective as they are not really O&G. A faint connection is that AB did say we'd look at more gas and Neil McCulloch is ex EnQuest.

I realise there is still a plethora of small companies in the NS but in the new order the peer group of largish production companies seems very small and comes back to the comment by David Latin of Serica that it is "a small pond and everyone knows what's going on".[Everyone doesn't include us]

Have I missed anybody?

For me it is actually On Topic https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/when-will-the-bbc-apologise-to-toby-young/

Maybe instead of using the suffix O/T it might be more helpful to add "Politics" in the subject title because some of us are more interested in the political machinations than others.

I think things are getting very interesting away from EPL and companies' performances and suing Chris Packham would maybe make the "deniers of debate" rethink their slanders and libels that aren't supported by either science or facts.

Today the activists have disrupted the AGM's of BP and Drax. The SNP have split from the Scottish Greens (I think the ramifications of this will be massive). The Scottish people aren't happy and their famously pragmatic approach to finance will assure that there will be NO financial leap into the dark. Their claim to the NS is bigger than the rest of the UK imo and the climate debate deniers are losing ground fast. It has never been "settled science" and I'm sick to the back teeth of the likes of foreigners (non-UK) like Al Gore, Greta Thunberg and Tessa Khan dictating to me.

I think the defending of the arms industry by Sunak should reinforce the argument against why the government [if it cares about security] taxes the O&G industry at penal rates. Is the arms industry more ESG acceptable than O&G?

Thanks Stevo - I looked at Note 9D however it was written in Sanskrit but appreciate the google maps assistance. I seldom go that far. Very difficult to compare I know but it has explained things to me. The reserves answer will make me look more closely at reserves. There is often an overlap with total reserves of a field and what belongs to partners in the field. The likes of Uplift and juststopoil are very casual about this and the difference between 2P and 2C. We know that 2C is close to worthless on fields that haven't been given the go-ahead yet. Our Opex is similar to theirs if you average the 50/50 split they have with O&G.

Thanks again for help.

Actually change that. Serica a BUY and EnQuest a STRONG BUY.

Where did you find reference to tax losses 11. I don't have your forensic skills but I never heard or saw them mentioned?

Hi Stevo - can you expand on 5. Is that because of Malaysia and Magnus?

9. What would be a wet finger guess at gas OPEX? in today's presentation David Latin said that their investment into oil compensated somewhat for lower returns on gas.

I like your comparison. Not apples to oranges but definitely Cox's to a Bramley. Serica dividend since 2020 has also played its part.

I have Serica as a hold and EnQuest a BUY purely because Bressay is such a beast and sentiment has changed with ESG now on the defence. If Bressay passes Go then Bentley starts to be discussed.

Summer is coming.

I have no idea who owns the HYNs but it's a fair bet nobody on here does. Just because the larger funds prefer investment grade doesn't mean that those who hold are retail. They will be sophisticated investors and have the funds to invest or play. HYN's are also called "vulture funds" and those involved don't worry about titles and often work in the shadows. It is easy to dismiss them as retail. They ain't. They are ruthless and some lack financial probity (as Premier found out) They may be rich individuals but more than happy to trade in a market that the large institutions either ignore or are prevented by mandate from investing in. They will understand the market better than most on here, me included. I very much doubt that EnQuest are buying back unless their advisors recommend. I just know that this is a positive move. The return from here would encourage some to sell and use the funds to attack a weaker company: it's what they do. Buying at this level has limited upside so why buy now? It is (imo) new entrants who think “why not”. If we are merging we might get a higher credit rating or dowry if debt is merged etc.. This is a YTM of c.11%. Pretty safe and could fit in nicely with a smaller fund that looks after high net worth individuals. At the end of the day it is irrelevant whether a credit in your bank account comes from a gilt, Shell or EnQuest.

This is good news and we are so ignored we might need explosives to lift our price.

2014 Maximising Economic Recovery - more like the Bataan Death March since then.

This from David Latin again in the P&J Scotland under the title "NS boss asks if policy of maximising economic recovery has been abandoned"

"The troubling developments in 2023 – and sadly again in 2024 – came from Westminster. Our politicians appear to have embarked on a race to the bottom.

Mr Latin said: “Any ‘windfall’ due to high commodity prices has long gone and the high

tax situation is ill-suited to a mature oil and gas basin such as the UK North Sea.

“Its continuation will not benefit people in the UK either financially or environmentally.”

He added: “Without doubt, times are currently difficult for independent oil and gas companies working in the UK.

“The troubling developments in 2023 – and sadly again in 2024 – came from Westminster.

“First, the government elected to keep its supposed ‘windfall’ profits tax in place long after any possible justification for it based on oil and gas prices had disappeared.

“And then… in the Spring budget (the chancellor) announced they would extend it by a further year to 2029.

HYNs + 50 points; now 102.00

Today David Latin of Serica said that the UK O&G industry is a "small pond" and everyone knows what's going on. Can they let us in on it?

He said Serica's peers are Ithaca, EnQuest and Harbour. We're the only ones without a dance partner.

Build it and they will come. Where's Ed?

I think it more a case on "unintended consequences". As a concept and pressures at the time there was a defence for a WFT but expediency should never be written into permanent legislation which is what looks like happening with EPL. Be interesting to see how Jeremy Hunt can make bombs, tanks and missiles "ESG friendly" whilst destroying what is left of the UKCS O&G industry.

Try fighting a war without oil. You can't sit in the road in front of a Russian tank.

Both up 100 points today. 100.50 to 101.50.

It takes size to move it that much imo and these are professionals. A very good indicator. They hear stuff before us. They've made money with dividend and a capital appreciation. They're in no hurry for the exit.

Hi Frac, that's why I love a webcast or an AGM. You see the body language or when someone is really interested. You could see that it had alerted LK's political sniffer dog reaction. That will be filed for a later programme. 'Over-ambitious' is political speak for 'we got it wrong' or 'we won't get it past the public'. Labour will do the same regarding 2030. I'm sending off missives about the NEW 9X (2X onshore, 3X solar, 4X offshore).

This is interesting: https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen-aberdeenshire/6440359/peterhead-windfarm-approved/

In the last auction that got anywhere (AR4) the strike price for floating offshore was £87.30 against plain offshore £37.35. The subsidy or strike price needed for the Peterhead windfarm isn't mentioned in the article. We know offshore has shot up so there won't be any surprises when the numbers required are published and the amount of 'revenue support' which is paid by all of us.

I watched Kuenssberg again. I missed so much.

The subtitle was “Is saving the Planet going out of fashion”

Chris Stark says the “choretics” have changed which required google assistance but did say regarding the energy transition “Ed talks about it, Starmer not so much”.

Layla Moran of the Lib-Dems produces a letter from a 7 year old supporting her point

Labour has cut £28bn from green budget but kept all policies in place.

The SNP set a target that was purposefully over ambitious according to Claire Coutinho which elicited the reply from LK “so for political reasons they set a target they were never going to hit” (SNP missed 8 out of 12 targets)

“Grotesque profits made by our energy, oil and gas companies – renewables so much cheaper” said Packham. He is a busy boy. He was dressing up in Bath the previous day. https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/chris-packham-massive-bath-extinction-9236443

Shabana Mahmood - Labour upgrading Ports – definitely part of their plans. Clean power by 2030 all models say money will come from private investment and Labour will take steps to unlock private sector investment. Confirmed that gas is a strategic reserve and then repeated a simple mnemonic saying that in the meanwhile you can X2 onshore wind, X3 solar power and X4 offshore by 2030. She then swerved commenting on the ECHR decision backing a group of old Swiss ladies on climate concerns. She is giving a talk on justice tonight which might explain her appearance. Still doesn’t explain Ed’s absence if climate is so important. Seems like Labour are trying to change the conversation.

Luke Johnson spoke sense but was out of his depth in political terms. Explains why top businessmen avoid these things. You can't win as Linda Cook found out at the Audit Committee in July 2022.

I never saw any comments at the time but I wonder if Chris Stark resigned the CCC in January because of the waning political support. He is still a young ambitious guy and best to leave and change career at the top. All he said was that in election year it felt time to go. Perhaps he read the runes and that politics is far different when in power to when in opposition.

Where's Ed?

Https://twitter.com/ShabanaMahmood/status/1782020339431551204

I looked at the latest Labour postings on 'X' and they did mention yesterdays Kuenssberg programme on BBC. From a programme largely about climate change they attacked the Tories on the rule of law and ignored the climate aspect. The Labour party is fully aware of the importance of social media and none of the postings are accidental. They aren't left to a junior to decide what goes up and all posts will be run past a senior advisor. It also follows that anything that might not help Labour's cause doesn't get posted. It is a weathervane.

Ed never commented.

That would have been good news when we were reliant on cheap energy.

Not sure if this'll get past the self-appointed censors as deemed off topic but it revolves around buybacks. Some of us do talk away from this board and I have the other investors permission to post (he thinks that calling this board a "four-ale bar" overrates us and kindergarten is more accurate; plus he doesn't drink).

What if timing is of little consequence? Guesswork from here but who is to say it has to be done in the market. The stock market is and always will be a popularity contest. It does mean the most deserving don't always win. An Off-book trade will relate to the market price but is the natural home for large trades. If the buyer is already lined up then as long as they haven't been seen to getting stock at a ridiculously cheap price then who could complain? For the buyer a lower price is preferred obviously. Ahah, one of you sharper ball-bearings will say "but EnQuest is the buyer".

But didn't Craig say they were discussing cancelling or placing in Treasury? If M&A is about a cheap 5% share block is surely a good bargaining tool. In fact I'd go further. It might be the best way of filching 5% of liquidity at the bottom of the market. Could the 5% be part of the jigsaw? AB doesn't think short-term.

Energean up 3.5% and they've got an FPSO moored about 60 miles from Israel. About the same distance from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the South.

Correction - (yesterday 14:37) "The movement against Net Zero has run its course" - what I meant to say was that the climate activists and the ESG crowd are a bit like Tesla shares. They've made their impact but now the real world takes over. Costs can only be hidden for so long and subsidies cannot go on forever. The Overton window sums it up neatly.

*thanks to an offline investor for pointing it out to me. Politics and ideology can trump common sense.